tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 6:48 am
Good Morning and 2.16 overnight. This morning the high res models not doing a great job with the current setup. The HRRR has been the best and the NAM will do good one run to match the HRRR and then do its normal to far northwest. Yesterday the rain stayed around a lot longer to the south of us and Kentucky is a mess for the most part. Will look at more info later this morning but have an appointment and should be back around 10am. No doubt the heavy rain has been a mess with the allergies and running out of tissues lol
Hi Tim, the rain washed-out air is supposed to make us hay fever sufferers feel better in part, bro.
Good morning! 51 degrees so much cooler this morning but with light rain continuing to fall. We got a lot of rain overnight. CVG's new total as of 6am stands at 2.85" Look for a small break then more action for late today, tonight, and esp for tomorrow. The heaviest rain of the entire event comes tomorrow. You can see the next batch developing in OK and KS with our next wave. I still think severe wx is low until tomorrow. Slight risk still looking good.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 7:12 am
Good morning! 51 degrees so much cooler this morning but with light rain continuing to fall. We got a lot of rain overnight. CVG's new total as of 6am stands at 2.85" Look for a small break then more action for late today, tonight, and esp for tomorrow. The heaviest rain of the entire event comes tomorrow. You can see the next batch developing in OK and KS with our next wave. I still think severe wx is low until tomorrow. Slight risk still looking good.
2.87" as of 7am
NAM has some severe parameters (71 and eastward) for tomorrow better than early Thursdays severe event . Anxiously waiting for HRRR to get in it’s better range later this afternoon to see if it bumps up the severe potential
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 7:12 am
Good morning! 51 degrees so much cooler this morning but with light rain continuing to fall. We got a lot of rain overnight. CVG's new total as of 6am stands at 2.85" Look for a small break then more action for late today, tonight, and esp for tomorrow. The heaviest rain of the entire event comes tomorrow. You can see the next batch developing in OK and KS with our next wave. I still think severe wx is low until tomorrow. Slight risk still looking good.
2.87" as of 7am
NAM has some severe parameters (71 and eastward) for tomorrow better than early Thursdays severe event . Anxiously waiting for HRRR to get in it’s better range later this afternoon to see if it bumps up the severe potential
I'm with Tim with regard to the HRRR doing a better job vs the NAM. NAM has been a little too crazy with the severe wx parm. Like you said, anxious to see the HRRR also later today.
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...REPLACES FLOOD ADVISORY...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
* WHERE...The following counties, in southeast Indiana, Ohio and
Switzerland, the following counties, in northern Kentucky, Boone,
Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Mason, Owen, Pendleton
and Robertson, and the following counties, in southwest Ohio,
Brown and Clermont.
* WHEN...Until noon EDT.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 856 AM EDT, emergency management reported flooding in the
warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.
Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is
expected.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Cincinnati, Covington, Florence, Independence, Erlanger, Fort
Thomas, Newport, Edgewood, Alexandria, Elsmere, Fort
Mitchell, Villa Hills, Highland Heights, Taylor Mill,
Bellevue, Fort Wright, Dayton, Ludlow, Georgetown and
Williamstown.
We are getting a brief break as the rain again has stalled over Central KY. It'll be short lived. The rain over S MO is lifting northward again ahead of the next low over OK and KS. We are about halfway there to our forecasted amounts (using CVG) and I think that another 3" easy should occur if not more with this next system.
Good Morning and I agree about half way through the event. Has the system performed exactly how I thought and in some areas yes and others not so much. I thought we would have a decent break this afternoon into Friday night. One problem is the front has stayed further south longer than I expected and though its on the move just taking longer than I expected. Later this afternoon with the later time then yes we could get another round of rainfall in the afternoon before the front moves north of the local area and folks towards I-70 will be more in the steady rainfall. Overnight looks like a break though a line to the west may try and work this far east for early Saturday morning and just not sure how far east and how much will be left of that wave. Just to add for late today once the front heads north of us does put us in the warmer air and this is where you can get a stronger storm or two but more isolated but if you see any breaks in the clouds late this afternoon that does help in forming a few stronger storms.
Then the final wave will be in here Saturday afternoon and evening and even lighter stuff Sunday morning. So far the trends the past two days has been further southeast than models showed early this week. That could make a difference with this last wave and the further south and east is good for us not only for rainfall but severe weather. This part still up in the air sort of speak because near that low is going to be another round of heavy rain and is that located here or I-64 or even in southern Kentucky. I am just not sure yet and can see all 3 has possible outcomes.Can we get to the 6 inch mark and yes especially if that last wave is far enough north and will look at models later today and maybe that will give us more of a handle. Will we see 8 inches and I doubt it and believe that is a good thing imo.
So like all major weather systems never a perfect outcome especially one that last 5 days but the general forecast for the most part has turned out okay with just some time problems of when and where the heaviest rain falls.
NAM tries to end the event Sun night as some snow flakes lol I've seen the HGFS try and do that in the past too. That would actually be kind of funny IMO after all of the bad weather, wind, and rain we have received. Why not hit for the weather cycle and see some snow.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Active weather pattern continues across the Ohio Valley around the
periphery of an anomalously strong mid level ridge centered off the
southeast coast. At the surface - a front remains to our south across
the TN Valley.
Low level southerly jet which resulted in widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms north of the south front across ILN/s southern
FA overnight is shifting east. Expect a brief break or lull in pcpn
with low level forcing weakening as the jet shifts east.
Another low level jet will approach from the southwest later this
aftn with elevated front (frontogenesis) shifting north into the
area. As this favorable forcing develops expect additional shower
and thunderstorm development with the elevated front - as it moves
northward later this afternoon. With anomalously high PWATS, the
threat for moderate to heavy rain will continue and shift north
across the area.
Have continued previous forecast thinking trending fcst temperatures
and dewpoints toward a consensus model raw blend. Highs will range
from the mid/upper 50s north the mid 60s south.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 11:49 am
Warm front starting to move north
IMG_3416.gif
Going to be a rainy afternoon and lets see how fast this rain moves north. Do we see any clearing later today and with all the rain south of us its just not easy because any sun that comes out down there will tend to form more clouds with all the moisture on the ground,. Should get 1/4- 1/3 inch with this round though.
1pm SPC update, mentioning the difference in HRRR and HR-NAM talked about earlier.
Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians...
The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern
Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on
overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance
varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight
with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with
the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern
Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some
instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather
threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate
to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely
once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent.
IMG_3418.gif
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Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
