Absolute Vorticity

As of 5am CVG .88”, Dayton .12”, Cbus .14”, ILN .68”

Decent rotation on the cell south of E-Town right now.

EPS/GEFs are starting to come together for the first wave Mon/Tues. with a weaker wave and a narrowing of QPF with cvgland being on the northern fringes

Tail-end Charlie heading for Munfordville is looking mean.

Good Morning and what a nice little system that produced severe storms to the south. Next week and with the boundary between warm and cold near us models are showing some weaker systems moving through. Since there is no blocking to slow down these systems they look to remain on the weak side. Can one of the waves coming though be a tad stronger and maybe but at this point they look weak imo. Does this mean snow and again a definite maybe. How deep does the cold air go and not sure models are anyone can say for sure. Timing will be key and the time between systems will also determine what the temp profile will look like after each system. Pattern wise very busy in our area but will we get involved with some winter precip. Early January we had everything set up with the cold and the NAO went negative so we had blocking to slow systems down and a direct flow of cold from the north. We still have cold air to the north but the NAO is positive and that does not help in slowing systems down.

My guess over the next several days each run will try and figure out when and where the next round of precip happens. The system we just had and the one Saturday both ended up later than the early model runs and does that continue.

Good morning! For next week, my thoughts are this: I am starting to see more model agreement on snow for Mon night thru Tues night then a follow up wave around the Wed night or Thurs into the Thurs night period for next week. With the first wave, the GFS and CMC have a much bigger snow shield where the Euro is more narrow but is coming in with the same general idea.

Good Morning and talk about the frz/rain from last night. I have seen where temps are 35 or 36 with several hours of frz/rain and seen temps at 28 or 29 for several hours and the roads remain just wet. Surface temps can vary and many times its the temps before the frz/rain hits that makes the difference. I did hear of reports that some trees had ice in our northern area but not much about the roads. Decks and overpasses many times will ice over first with the cold wind underneath but many times roads will be last and part of that is the amount of traffic.

I really thought the frz/rain would not be a problem and hopefully that was the case. Never want to mislead folks and that was my fault in not getting out the issues or non issues frz/rain may cause. I will do better next time. No problems and really a nice rain to sort of clean up the streets.

Good Morning Les and regards to timing next week and still believe we have a ways to go as this week the models are too fast at first and then as we get closer they move the timing back. The system yesterday was for days a Tuesday night/Wednesday time period and the one for Saturday was a late Friday night/Saturday. As we get closer the models finally get the timing correct. I believe when you haves several pieces of energy and not a good blocking pattern models will go back and forth not only on timing but where precip may fall. I do believe one item is a boundary will be near us next week but for me at least timing and exactly how these play out may not be known until the weekend at the earliest.

I always talk about patterns for us during the winter. For us we live in an area where it seems to be split into 3 possible outcomes. 4 weeks where the pattern looks great for snow,4 weeks that look terrible for snow and 4 weeks that can go either way but chances are no doubt available. I believe next week that is one that looks good at the moment for snow and that could be pushed up to great.

Yes this breakdown is not perfect and it varies every season but overall for an much longer extended period of years or decades this will be close to what we expect in the Ohio Valley.

I'm pretty excited for next week. I have been for a long time. I am gaining more confidence in the first wave. Still a lot of uncertainly as to how many rounds of precip we see. That will determine on how many days we have impacts.

My son is expecting 5-8 inches on Saturday. He is catching up quickly which is expected. Les I am still excited about next week but for me its timing and when you several pieces of energy floating around models will pick up one piece one run and then another piece the next run. These systems will be much different than we saw early in January and temps will be near the 32 degree mark. I hope we get the snow but with these overrunning systems the dreaded frz/rain does enter the picture.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2025 9:56 am My son is expecting 5-8 inches on Saturday. He is catching up quickly which is expected. Les I am still excited about next week but for me its timing and when you several pieces of energy floating around models will pick up one piece one run and then another piece the next run. These systems will be much different than we saw early in January and temps will be near the 32 degree mark. I hope we get the snow but with these overrunning systems the dreaded frz/rain does enter the picture.

Good post... the snow will be of a wetter and heavier nature that is for sure. Should make for some good flake size if everything goes correctly. I'm thinking snow or rain for the main precip type. The corridor of sleet or frz rain IMO is going to be very very narrow if it's there at all.

Per Met. Ryan Hoke at WAVE 3:

[9:52AM] NWS Louisville has confirmed that an EF-1 #tornado hit northern Hart County, KY this morning, near Hammonville and 31E just south of the LaRue/Hart Co line. #WAVEWeather

With the weaker trends , at least for the time being for Mon/Tues , it’s not so much about mixing issues for me but QPF amounts, especially for the I70 crew. We don’t want to much more weakening

12Z GFS bumped south / weaker also. Sure hope the bleeding stops! This has the potential to be a nice system and a multi day event if we can get a more organized storm. Looks like the incoming cold though is going to mean business and suppress the SE ridge. We don't want too much of a good thing.

I'm wondering if the follow up wave towards the end of the week might be the stronger piece of energy versus the Tuesday one. I was thinking originally, that it would be the opposite. Hmmm....

CVG with the first wave:

i have quite the sleet storm here today. it started around 3 am and has been going at it with variable intensity ever since. going to be a real mess for me later tonight or early tomorrow morning !

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2025 11:29 am i have quite the sleet storm here today. it started around 3 am and has been going at it with variable intensity ever since. going to be a real mess for me later tonight or early tomorrow morning !

Frz rain and sleet are def the most unwanted precip type of the winter season. I'd rather have a cold rain honestly then that. We've had our fair share of sleet fests down here over the years. February is typically the month when we get 'em too.

Can we please lock in the 12Z Canadian! Snow Tues / Tues night then a break. Round 2 Wed late afternoon thru early Thursday.

Good Afternoon as the latest info arrives from the models. Nothing has changed in my book as the models are still trying to figure out which pieces of energy to grab hold of and also the timing. I expect this to continue until the weekend and who knows maybe early next week. I believe with a rather nice shot of cold air coming into the USA models have problems in determining how far south and how deep the cold will extend south.

Looks like the battle zone is near us and that has not changed but without the blocking we just see pieces of energy come across the middle of the USA and once in awhile a piece of energy may slow down enough to strengthen somewhat but nothing crazy.

Lots of overrunning events and usually with these a sharp cutoff between having rain/snow and also a sharp cutoff between snow and nothing. Yes between the snow and rain an area that can get into the frz/rain area but its not the best set up but still possible. Normally for a widespread ice event you have a surge of moisture come over a retreating cold air mass and again yes this will have cold air but trying to figure how deep that cold is can be a headache. The GOM should be fine and yes heading towards spring from Mid-Feb- MId-May is a time where moisture flow is usually at its best before summer starts to day over in the deep south.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2025 11:19 am CVG with the first wave:

Code: Select all

TUE 12Z 11-FEB  -3.0    -6.4    1026      89      96    0.05     559     538    
TUE 18Z 11-FEB  -1.1    -5.5    1021      92      97    0.10     557     540    
WED 00Z 12-FEB  -2.8    -6.3    1018      95      99    0.31     553     539    
WED 06Z 12-FEB  -4.5    -5.8    1018      95      86    0.05     552     537    

Always have to straddle that line. It is never cut and dry easy…

Trends from the GEFs and the squeeze on the northern portion of QPF

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2025 11:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2025 11:19 am CVG with the first wave:

Code: Select all

TUE 12Z 11-FEB  -3.0    -6.4    1026      89      96    0.05     559     538    
TUE 18Z 11-FEB  -1.1    -5.5    1021      92      97    0.10     557     540    
WED 00Z 12-FEB  -2.8    -6.3    1018      95      99    0.31     553     539    
WED 06Z 12-FEB  -4.5    -5.8    1018      95      86    0.05     552     537    

Always have to straddle that line. It is never cut and dry easy…

Minus this past January, we always have to do it the hard way!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 06, 2025 12:05 pmOHRC.jpg

Les looks rather normal for this time of year. Of course we know if we have a few periods of heavier rain especially upstream or snow melt later this month this can change but so far seems normal.