Page 9 of 64
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:24 pm
by Bgoney
Gfs really giving the love in the snow department to the counties bordering I70
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:25 pm
by tron777
Wow, this is really getting serious in terms of an ice storm for the Tri-state area.
Code: Select all
CVG
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -5.0 -3.0 1023 92 97 0.27 559 541
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.7 -1.0 1017 96 97 0.61 557 544
MON 06Z 06-JAN -2.8 1.9 1008 96 63 0.60 552 545
MON 12Z 06-JAN -3.0 2.2 1002 96 99 0.07 542 541
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.3 -6.6 1005 97 82 0.12 534 531
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.0 -9.1 1014 90 89 0.09 541 530
HAO
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.6 -3.6 1023 78 96 0.16 558 540
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.0 -2.8 1018 96 97 0.57 557 542
MON 06Z 06-JAN -3.8 0.2 1009 95 90 0.60 551 544
MON 12Z 06-JAN -3.8 0.8 1004 94 96 0.11 542 540
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.1 -7.1 1005 97 91 0.21 535 531
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.5 -9.2 1014 88 93 0.13 540 530
MGY
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.4 -3.6 1018 95 97 0.44 556 542
MON 06Z 06-JAN -4.7 -0.7 1010 95 100 0.60 551 544
MON 12Z 06-JAN -4.5 0.2 1004 94 96 0.12 543 539
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.2 -7.2 1005 97 95 0.26 536 532
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.9 -9.3 1013 89 92 0.18 540 529
DAY
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.1 -5.9 1023 54 97 0.03 557 538
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.4 -3.8 1019 93 96 0.22 556 541
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.1 -1.7 1011 95 99 0.57 551 543
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.1 -1.5 1005 94 97 0.15 543 539
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.0 -7.2 1005 96 96 0.29 536 532
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -4.4 -9.5 1013 89 88 0.19 539 529
CMH
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.4 -6.0 1021 83 97 0.04 555 539
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.0 -3.2 1013 96 98 0.44 552 542
MON 12Z 06-JAN -4.9 -2.1 1006 95 99 0.21 544 539
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.0 -5.1 1003 97 97 0.24 537 534
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.5 -8.8 1010 88 97 0.32 538 530
FGX
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.7 -2.5 1023 94 98 0.25 560 542
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.4 -0.6 1017 95 95 0.40 559 545
MON 06Z 06-JAN -1.1 4.0 1008 97 98 0.64 554 548
MON 12Z 06-JAN 0.3 4.2 1001 100 60 0.21 545 544
MON 18Z 06-JAN -0.6 -5.7 1002 99 62 0.05 535 534
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:32 pm
by tron777
Big AFD from the boys:
The main item of interest for the long term period is going to
be the evolution of the system poised to impact the region
Sunday into Monday. At these time ranges, we can only speak
reliably to trends within the ensemble data/solutions and will
refrain at this point from any mention of specific amounts of
snow and/or ice for particulary locations.
Synoptically, by Saturday night, the expansive ern trof should
be pulling away from the OH Vly, with midlevel ridging building
E in its immediate wake. This midlevel ridge will nudge E into
the region by late Saturday night, but will gradually flatten as
the ejecting S/W into the central plains will move E quicker
than the departing ern trof will pull away. Although the
approaching trof will be positively-tilted, it will be subtly
deepening/strengthening into early Sunday, spreading large-scale
ascent (and moisture) eastward into the mid MS/OH Vlys during
the day. The latest guidance shows a slightly stronger solution
overall, with a closed midlevel low developing within the
central plains by Sunday morning. This is a deviation from the
prevailing mean ensemble guidance within the past several days
and indeed this is also reflected within the depicted average
sfc low depth as well. Ensemble probs for a sub-1000mb low
continue to increase in the vicinity of KY/srn IL/IN/OH by 06z
Monday, a signal which was much more muted in past fcst cycles
(due, in part, to variability in placement of the low and timing
of the progression eastward). Regardless, the ensemble mean H8
temps have increased on the order of 2-4C for the srn third of
the local area within the past several runs of suites,
suggesting a trend toward a more pronounced elevated warm layer
(>0C) pivoting further N during the period of heaviest pcpn.
This, of course, has large ramifications regarding pcpn amounts
and ptype evolution, especially as the elevated warm layer aloft
(as seen in the H8 temp fields) may end up quite a bit further
N than previously expected. This may translate into prolonged
mixed wintry pcpn, even N of the OH Rvr, into Sunday
evening/night, which would complicate snow amounts in these
areas where a SN --> FZRA/IP --> SN evolution could occur
throughout the course of the main 18-hour time frame of this
event.
It seems likely, at this juncture, that some mixed (FZRA and/or
IP) wintry pcpn should evolve for at least a brief period of
time late Sunday/night into early Monday across at least the srn
third of the ILN FA, with all snow favored further N
(especially near/N of I-70). Of course, the more mixed pcpn that
occurs, the lower the snow amounts would likely be in those
spots. From a liquid-equiv QPF perspective, ensemble guidance
suggests medium probabilities (~50%) of at least 1" near the OH
Rvr, with high probabilities (>70%) of at least 1" S of the OH
Rvr. So regardless of exact ptype that evolves, we are talking
*significant* amounts of wintry pcpn over a large swath of the
area. This ensemble mean QPF bullseye of around 1" (liquid-
equiv) has also shifted N with successive fcst cycles, mirroring
the same trend noted within the low center clustering. This
only complicates (and magnifies) the forecast and messaging, as
there will be extremely tight ptype and amount gradients that
set up squarely across parts of the local area. From a planning
perspective, right now, it seems increasingly likely that FZRA
or IP will occur for at least part of the event for locales
stretching from SE IN through the Cincy metro area into the
lower Scioto Valley and points S of this axis. Further to the N,
closer to I-70, significant amounts of snow (near or greater
than 6") are favored from Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning.
The evolution of the system into Monday morning also remains
somewhat uncertain as the system should generally have
transitioned to a subtle weakening state by this time, but
wraparound moisture on the backside of the departing low may
keep banded snow going for parts of the area into early
afternoon. Either way, the Monday morning commute is looking to
be significantly impacted by this winter storm region-wide.
At this point in time, general awareness and adequate planning
for a winter storm is the proper course of action. Details
regarding specific ptypes and amounts will become clearer in the
coming days. What is already clear, however, is the likelihood
that an arctic airmass will settle into the region next week,
with much below normal temperatures expected for the foreseeable
future in the OH Vly. Temperatures and wind chills may approach
or exceed critical (advisory) thresholds at times next week,
depending on evolution of cloud cover, winds, and potential for
fresh snowpack. It is, however, looking like the coldest stretch
of the winter thus far for us locally.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:32 pm
by Bgoney
Per the 18z GFS those snow totals from a Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line and Southward are heavily contaminated with sleet/FZ
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:45 pm
by wrmwxfreak
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:32 pm
Per the 18z GFS those snow totals from a Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line and Southward are heavily contaminated with sleet/FZ
When you say the Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line, do you mean the line formed by the northern or southern boundaries of these counties? So, for example, are these counties contaminated as well, or are they north of the contamination? Thanks!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:56 pm
by tron777
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:45 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:32 pm
Per the 18z GFS those snow totals from a Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line and Southward are heavily contaminated with sleet/FZ
When you say the Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line, do you mean the line formed by the northern or southern boundaries of these counties? So, for example, are these counties contaminated as well, or are they north of the contamination? Thanks!
I'm not Bgoney, but I would have to say both. I posted the text data for HAO and it has frz rain. Frz rain even gets to MGY.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:56 pm
by tron777
Same with Wilmington.
Code: Select all
ILN
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.2 -6.1 1024 65 97 0.07 558 539
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.5 -3.3 1019 96 98 0.46 557 542
MON 06Z 06-JAN -4.6 0.1 1010 95 97 0.62 552 544
MON 12Z 06-JAN -4.1 1.6 1004 95 94 0.12 544 541
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.6 -6.1 1004 97 90 0.24 536 533
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.7 -9.1 1012 89 97 0.20 539 530
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:58 pm
by Bgoney
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:45 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:32 pm
Per the 18z GFS those snow totals from a Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line and Southward are heavily contaminated with sleet/FZ
When you say the Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line, do you mean the line formed by the northern or southern boundaries of these counties? So, for example, are these counties contaminated as well, or are they north of the contamination? Thanks!
Yes they would be included in contamination. Sorry about that
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:07 pm
by Phr0z3n
What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:29 pm
by mikeyp
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:07 pm
What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.
Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:49 pm
by tron777
mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:29 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:07 pm
What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.
Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm
I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:53 pm
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:49 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:29 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:07 pm
What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.
Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm
I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!
For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:57 pm
by tron777
18Z Euro ticked back south vs 12Z.
Code: Select all
CVG
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.8 -3.4 1022 75 99 0.10 557 540
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.0 -2.4 1015 91 100 0.41 554 543
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.4 -2.7 1009 92 92 0.29 545 538
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.4 -8.7 1011 85 100 0.20 538 530
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.4 -10.1 1018 78 32 0.07 542 528
HAO
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -5.2 -4.8 1023 66 100 0.07 556 538
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.4 -3.6 1016 90 100 0.43 553 541
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.5 -4.5 1010 87 90 0.22 545 537
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.3 -8.6 1011 86 101 0.19 539 530
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.5 -11.1 1017 81 33 0.02 541 527
MGY
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -5.0 -6.2 1023 56 100 0.03 555 537
MON 00Z 06-JAN -6.0 -4.3 1017 90 98 0.44 553 540
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.9 -5.2 1011 87 90 0.20 545 536
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.4 -8.5 1010 86 100 0.10 539 530
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.9 -11.9 1017 84 34 0.03 540 527
DAY
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -3.9 -7.5 1023 38 98 0.01 554 536
MON 00Z 06-JAN -6.1 -5.2 1017 88 97 0.28 552 539
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.8 -6.3 1012 86 93 0.24 544 535
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.5 -8.6 1011 87 100 0.02 539 530
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.9 -12.6 1017 86 36 0.02 539 526
CMH
MON 00Z 06-JAN -6.0 -6.3 1019 83 98 0.13 552 538
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.8 -6.3 1013 87 99 0.35 545 535
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.7 -8.7 1010 79 99 0.10 539 531
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.0 -12.3 1014 88 42 0.02 537 526
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -4.9 -13.4 1020 81 16 0.01 539 524
FGX
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.2 -2.7 1022 73 100 0.10 558 541
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.1 -2.2 1015 91 100 0.29 556 545
MON 06Z 06-JAN -3.6 0.7 1007 93 76 0.43 548 542
MON 12Z 06-JAN -4.8 -4.5 1007 88 82 0.09 539 534
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.7 -9.7 1015 83 67 0.12 541 529
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:58 pm
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:53 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:49 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:29 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:07 pm
What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.
Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm
I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!
For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.
No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:04 pm
by MJSun
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:07 pm
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:58 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:53 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:49 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:29 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:07 pm
What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.
Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm
I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!
For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.
No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.
Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:08 pm
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:07 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:58 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:53 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:49 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:29 pm
Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm
I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!
For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.
No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.
Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.
You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:09 pm
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:08 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:07 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:58 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:53 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:49 pm
I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!
For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.
No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.
Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.
You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.
After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:11 pm
by Phr0z3n
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:08 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:07 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:58 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:53 pm
For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.
No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.
Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.
You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.
After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.
Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:12 pm
by tron777
CB evening update with some good 18Z Euro maps:
https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=68674
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:14 pm
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:11 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:08 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:07 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 6:58 pm
No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.
Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.
You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.
After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.
Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.
True! I hate the freezing rain part though. Hoping the 18Z Euro has the right idea where they jumped north but will slowly correct back south a smidge. Not by a lot but enough where precip type differences and impacts are huge in our area! They always set up near the Oh River, almost every single time.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:18 pm
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:14 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:11 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:08 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:07 pm
Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.
You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.
After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.
Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.
True! I hate the freezing rain part though. Hoping the 18Z Euro has the right idea where they jumped north but will slowly correct back south a smidge. Not by a lot but enough where precip type differences and impacts are huge in our area! They always set up near the Oh River, almost every single time.
Yep I’d rather deal with snow any day. Maybe 18z euro is on to something. A lot of times 18z gfs is the one that starts the right Trend so maybe 18z euro is the same way.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:21 pm
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:18 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:14 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:11 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:08 pm
You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.
After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.
Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.
True! I hate the freezing rain part though. Hoping the 18Z Euro has the right idea where they jumped north but will slowly correct back south a smidge. Not by a lot but enough where precip type differences and impacts are huge in our area! They always set up near the Oh River, almost every single time.
Yep I’d rather deal with snow any day. Maybe 18z euro is on to something. A lot of times 18z gfs is the one that starts the right Trend so maybe 18z euro is the same way.
I'll see it in the morning lol Fingers crossed! Tomorrow will be an interesting day anyway as we start to get some sampling.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:21 pm
by tron777
Okay folks... got to get up early for work in the morning. Keep it going and I'll catch up early in the morning. Good luck to us all!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:22 pm
by Phr0z3n
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:18 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:14 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:11 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:08 pm
You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.
After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.
Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.
True! I hate the freezing rain part though. Hoping the 18Z Euro has the right idea where they jumped north but will slowly correct back south a smidge. Not by a lot but enough where precip type differences and impacts are huge in our area! They always set up near the Oh River, almost every single time.
Yep I’d rather deal with snow any day. Maybe 18z euro is on to something. A lot of times 18z gfs is the one that starts the right Trend so maybe 18z euro is the same way.
Spire has really been consistent in a northerly track. And ukmet/icon have been hinting at this as well before the major models shifted north
IMG_1220.png
That’s why I added my thoughts to a more northerly track.
