January 2025 Wx Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 29, DAY 24 and CMH 22 today.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 19 in Pburgh and a 50% chance of snow showers with a west wind 10-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph for tonight's 8 PM'er vs the Bengals.

[airwolf76]

overnight models. only the euro has the big storm idea for next weekend so i wouldnt put too much stock into it but something to watch after this current storm clears out

[tron777]

overnight models. only the euro has the big storm idea for next weekend so i wouldnt put too much stock into it but something to watch after this current storm clears out

Right on! I am waiting to see how the snowpack here will impact the development and track of the next system.

[tpweather]

overnight models. only the euro has the big storm idea for next weekend so i wouldnt put too much stock into it but something to watch after this current storm clears out

Right on! I am waiting to see how the snowpack here will impact the development and track of the next system.

I agree Les and will start to look at that on Tuesday. Once you get a big storm like this the atmosphere needs to reset and you are going to see wild swings at this early stage. The only thing I know for sure is we will be on the cold side of the storm.

[tron777]

overnight models. only the euro has the big storm idea for next weekend so i wouldnt put too much stock into it but something to watch after this current storm clears out

Right on! I am waiting to see how the snowpack here will impact the development and track of the next system.

I agree Les and will start to look at that on Tuesday. Once you get a big storm like this the atmosphere needs to reset and you are going to see wild swings at this early stage. The only thing I know for sure is we will be on the cold side of the storm.

How long does it take to phase and get its act together will determine the track, and how much QPF we have. Expecting an all snow event for all AV locations.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG / DAY / CMH all got to 25 today.

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY 65TH BIRTHDAY GINA (WXMOM) AND HAPPY 54TH BIRTHDAY SNWYOWL!!

Enjoy your FRESH WHITE GOLD WALLOP birthday presents and special day, Wxbuddies!!

Btw, haven't seen Gina here at AV in a "coon's age".

[tpweather]

Still have the ongoing storm and that is located in another thread. Thought we start to talk about the cold and if there are any storms in our future. First the cold and folks with the deepest snow pack should have no problem getting below zero sometime this week. Matter of fact models do a horrible job with snow pack and temps are often several degrees lower than models show. Of course you need the correct set up with a clear sky and calm winds. Wednesday morning could get near 0 imo and Thursday morning this should be the coldest morning an in conditions are good I can see some folks in that -10 - 15 range. Models will catch on with that probably by Tuesday. Then lets see how the pattern shapes up for next weekend and beyond. Still plenty of energy floating around and I love to watch systems as they tend to follow the southern path of a snow pack. Sounds great but the snow pack east of the mountains also has snow pack in Virginia as well and of course snow pack out to Kansas. Then western GOM did use up some moisture and energy with the current system but still plenty of warm waters and the eastern GOM less moisture used and warm waters are still there. Hopefully by Tuesday or Wednesday we start watching these pieces of energy but also should have a decent high pressure but where will this be placed is too early at this point.

Happy Birthday Gina and hope all is well

[tpweather]

Want to discuss the cold mid-week and why models are probably to warm at night. Yes its an arctic cold but more of a normal cold you would see this time of year.Folks in the northern plains and upper mid-west will only be near normal at best because lack of snow for that area. The central plains through the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic will have the coldest compared to normal. Folks who have a few inches on the ground should be in that 0-10 degree range for a few morning but folks with more than 6 inches which includes us should see the biggest departure from normal and that is why I am much colder than models at this point in time. Speaking of cold and still watching to see if the PV will decide to make a run at this part of the world and if so when does this happen. Probably one of the hardest areas to predict with winter weather.

[tron777]

I'm going zero to 5 below for 2 nights this week Tim, probably will be Wed and Thurs nights. One, maybe two days in the Upper teens to around 20 or so for highs.

[tron777]

12Z GFS gives CVG 0.40" of QPF for Friday's event and some nice ratios too. If the low can crank up just a bit sooner we could get more. All snow for sure, strength and track of low will be key on this one.

[tron777]

12Z CMC shows a little something as well as the Euro. Certainly the next one worth watching. Looking like a Fri afternoon into Sat morning event at the moment for timing. We might start a thread depending on how this looks tomorrow.

[Kennyaker]

Who is ready for the next storm??

[tron777]

18Z GFS gives CVG 0.35" of QPF with some decent ratios. Could see a high end advisory to low end warning with this next event if things break right. CMC and Euro aren't quote as impressive as the GFS has been,. Euro was a couple of days ago but has since backed off a little bit.

[tron777]

18Z Euro at CVG came in with 0.19" so still much lower then the GFS.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 26, DAY 27 and CMH 29 on Mon.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Last work from home day today for me so I have to finish getting my car and the rest of the driveway done today so I can re-enter the "real world" tomorrow!

In the teens here this morning. CVG is at 18. Clouds did not allow temps to fall very much. I was expecting lows around 10. Anyway, that's how it goes sometimes. Anyway, cold air is the name of the game for the rest of this week. Still keeping an eye on Fri afternoon into the overnight period for our next shot of snow.

Looking at our Big 3 global models... they all pretty much have a southern stream dominated system and the northern piece never really gets involved. GFS continues to give us the most snow with the Euro clipping us and the CMC is in the middle. If we look at Ensembles, the GEFS has a mean of 2" for I-70 3" for CVG and amounts get larger as one goes south. 4-6" for SKY and most of TN. The EPS has enough QPF to give us an inch or so of snow, a couple SE Crew and the best action is in the S Apps.

So all in all a light event is very possible, perhaps moderate if the OP GFS gains some support. Unless the N branch is able to phase in, this will not be a big event. But something in that 1-3" range maybe 2-4" is what I am thinking for our area as a whole. If someone else wants to start a new thread for this system, go for it! If you are waiting for me to do it, I'd like to see a little more data personally.

[Bgoney]

When you think back , There hasn’t been a phasing of a northern/southern S/W any where in the lower 48 for quite awhile to see a stronger Low . Western ridge not quite in the right spot or a weak / non existent SE ridge

[tron777]

When you think back , There hasn’t been a phasing of a northern/southern S/W any where in the lower 48 for quite awhile to see a stronger Low . Western ridge not quite in the right spot or a weak / non existent SE ridge

Yeah. That looks to be the issue with this next system for sure. A positively tilted trough. We need more digging and a neutral to negative tilt for a stronger system. I do not see any guidance showing that occurring as of yet.

[tpweather]

Great Posts guys and both dead on. Last system rather easy in forecasting terms well ahead of the arrival. Late this week two pieces of energy and they look to stay apart and not dance. Both pieces have some energy and not like this last system. With the cold air in place you would expect a more southerly storm. The northern piece of energy is at least going about the same pace as the southern piece and will try its best to bring up moisture from the southern system. If the two got together this would be another decent system but not seeing this at the moment. One good thing is if you like snow the ratio should be higher and would expect 15-1 or so and yes even .10 can give 1 1/2 inches of snow. I would say locally more like 1-2 inches. Heavier snows southeast Kentucky is more likely but again this would be more in the 4 inch range or so.

Again a little early to discount a bigger storm but at this point in time not seeing the southeast ridge building up enough and help us out.

[tron777]

Official low at CVG this morning was 15. Let's see if we can manage the upper 20s today for folks (like me) who are still cleaning up. A few flurries this evening into early tomorrow but it's not a big deal. The arctic air will be with lows in the single digits in the morning (provided we lose some of the clouds) and highs a couple of degrees above 20 for tomorrow is the best we will do. If we see some clouds, upper teens for some of you may indeed occur due to the deep snow pack. Best chance to see any sunshine this week is Thurs before clouds come back ahead of the Fri wave.

[tron777]

Seeing a few flurries dotting the sky too, but you can literally count the number of flakes that you see at any one given time.

[Bgoney]

IMG_2989.jpeg

[tron777]

^^^

Now that's a nice looking typical January winter time map right there. It is about freaking time!