Absolute Vorticity

Good morning folks! A nice Fri and Sat are on tap before we get wet Sat night and Sunday. I will up my amounts to 0.75 to 1" range on this next system. Overnight models (including the NAM) are still in that ballpark for amounts. Late Wed / Thurs is our next shot for rain. Highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s can be expected over the next week. Highs may drop towards normal in the 50s towards the end of next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 4:30 am Good morning folks! A nice Fri and Sat are on tap before we get wet Sat night and Sunday. I will up my amounts to 0.75 to 1" range on this next system. Overnight models (including the NAM) are still in that ballpark for amounts. Late Wed / Thurs is our next shot for rain. Highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s can be expected over the next week. Highs may drop towards normal in the 50s towards the end of next week.

Working on an another top ten candidate for November warmth . Here’s the monthly chart again for reference. By next week as you mentioned mid 50s and mid 30s the norms . The warm records keep on coming

That above chart says it all. We are so far above normal in temps that the 50s (which is normal now) will actually feel cooler since we are used to the endless onslaught of 60s and 70s.

Good Morning a little frosty outside this morning but it feels nice imo. Les you have the forecast down and I agree about rainfall amounts. Then another system later next week so yes November is working out the way we saw back in October. No doubt we will be above normal temp wise for November plus we have a good shot of being above normal for rainfall which is something new. More changes later in the month but lets get to mid-month before heading down that road. Leaving for the annual Hilton Head Golf Trip on the 17th and looking for some nice weather. Once I get back we are heading into Thanksgiving week. Of course two more weddings to attend which will be six for the year wow.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:00 am Good Morning a little frosty outside this morning but it feels nice imo. Les you have the forecast down and I agree about rainfall amounts. Then another system later next week so yes November is working out the way we saw back in October. No doubt we will be above normal temp wise for November plus we have a good shot of being above normal for rainfall which is something new. More changes later in the month but lets get to mid-month before heading down that road. Leaving for the annual Hilton Head Golf Trip on the 17th and looking for some nice weather. Once I get back we are heading into Thanksgiving week. Of course two more weddings to attend which will be six for the year wow.

You're a busy man Tim! At least you'll be ready for the heart of winter when the time comes. Hope the weather is nice for your Golf game too and that the tropics don't ruin things for you. CVG made it down to 39 this morning.

Like Bgoney mentioned yesterday getting a storm coming of the southwest is good news in terms of rainfall for many folks. We should be on the edge of the heaviest rains and folks in central Kentucky could see totals well over an inch. Not sure exactly how far over depending on the speed of the system on Sunday. Then a few days of nice normal mid-November days before another system with some colder air behind that system. Just steps to get us hopefully to some winter weather by late month or early December. Always concerns and getting snow cover to the northwest at this point is one concern but again we are only in mid-November. Starting to see more snow cover for southern Canada and that should continue next few weeks but again the south Central part of the country needs to ramp up though southeast Canada should be okay. Will this pattern be one we see in the winter and I believe yes at times but one big item as mentioned on here many times is the pacific and when it floods the nation with milder air will it be cutoff somewhat at times when it heads towards us.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:07 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:00 am Good Morning a little frosty outside this morning but it feels nice imo. Les you have the forecast down and I agree about rainfall amounts. Then another system later next week so yes November is working out the way we saw back in October. No doubt we will be above normal temp wise for November plus we have a good shot of being above normal for rainfall which is something new. More changes later in the month but lets get to mid-month before heading down that road. Leaving for the annual Hilton Head Golf Trip on the 17th and looking for some nice weather. Once I get back we are heading into Thanksgiving week. Of course two more weddings to attend which will be six for the year wow.

You're a busy man Tim! At least you'll be ready for the heart of winter when the time comes. Hope the weather is nice for your Golf game too and that the tropics don't ruin things for you. CVG made it down to 39 this morning.

Dang Tim , 6 weddings? Did you come out of retirement and become a professional wedding crasher?


The -NAO eventually gets us closer to normality for temps . With how above normal Canada has been its effects are muted on the lower 48. It mostly will have a larger effect on GB and other parts of EU for a more pronounced cool spell. Does the -NAO hold on through mid month and beyond or is it progressive , will help determine temps for late month and beyond

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:07 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:00 am Good Morning a little frosty outside this morning but it feels nice imo. Les you have the forecast down and I agree about rainfall amounts. Then another system later next week so yes November is working out the way we saw back in October. No doubt we will be above normal temp wise for November plus we have a good shot of being above normal for rainfall which is something new. More changes later in the month but lets get to mid-month before heading down that road. Leaving for the annual Hilton Head Golf Trip on the 17th and looking for some nice weather. Once I get back we are heading into Thanksgiving week. Of course two more weddings to attend which will be six for the year wow.

You're a busy man Tim! At least you'll be ready for the heart of winter when the time comes. Hope the weather is nice for your Golf game too and that the tropics don't ruin things for you. CVG made it down to 39 this morning.

Dang Tim , 6 weddings? Did you come out of retirement and become a professional wedding crasher?


The -NAO eventually gets us closer to normality for temps . With how above normal Canada has been its effects are muted on the lower 48. It mostly will have a larger effect on GB and other parts of EU for a more pronounced cool spell. Does the -NAO hold on through mid month and beyond or is it progressive , will help determine temps for late month and beyond

Looks like I need to head back to work lol. At least the parties afterwards have been great and that is when I hit the top shelf instead of beer. 2 nieces and 4 friends whose kids got married. Hopefully next year will be back to normal though I know of 1 already in April

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:07 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:00 am Good Morning a little frosty outside this morning but it feels nice imo. Les you have the forecast down and I agree about rainfall amounts. Then another system later next week so yes November is working out the way we saw back in October. No doubt we will be above normal temp wise for November plus we have a good shot of being above normal for rainfall which is something new. More changes later in the month but lets get to mid-month before heading down that road. Leaving for the annual Hilton Head Golf Trip on the 17th and looking for some nice weather. Once I get back we are heading into Thanksgiving week. Of course two more weddings to attend which will be six for the year wow.

You're a busy man Tim! At least you'll be ready for the heart of winter when the time comes. Hope the weather is nice for your Golf game too and that the tropics don't ruin things for you. CVG made it down to 39 this morning.

Dang Tim , 6 weddings? Did you come out of retirement and become a professional wedding crasher?


The -NAO eventually gets us closer to normality for temps . With how above normal Canada has been its effects are muted on the lower 48. It mostly will have a larger effect on GB and other parts of EU for a more pronounced cool spell. Does the -NAO hold on through mid month and beyond or is it progressive , will help determine temps for late month and beyond

In the last several years, the -NAO has had a tendency to hook up with the SE Ridge. Let's hope that doesn't happen again. We need the SE ridge to retrograde to the west / north to promote blocking. If the SE ridge and -NAO hook up, then it's an all out blowtorch for Canada and the US.

My main concern is the central and southern plains though getting rain the next few days I still worry this area is drier than normal during the winter and that can lead to some mild to warm days even in mid winter. When that heads this way who wins the battle and that is where we could use some snow on the ground especially from early Dec- early Feb. I am just trying to picture the pattern in my head and yes there will be changes from time to time but trying to get what I see will be the most likely outcome. I could be dead wrong which is not the first time by any means but hopefully the cold and snow cover in the northeast and southeast Canada helps us out a little more than normal this winter season.

Les you make a good point about the -nao hooking up with the southeast ridge and I am sure that will happen a few times but hopefully not the main feature this winter.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:07 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:07 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:00 am Good Morning a little frosty outside this morning but it feels nice imo. Les you have the forecast down and I agree about rainfall amounts. Then another system later next week so yes November is working out the way we saw back in October. No doubt we will be above normal temp wise for November plus we have a good shot of being above normal for rainfall which is something new. More changes later in the month but lets get to mid-month before heading down that road. Leaving for the annual Hilton Head Golf Trip on the 17th and looking for some nice weather. Once I get back we are heading into Thanksgiving week. Of course two more weddings to attend which will be six for the year wow.

You're a busy man Tim! At least you'll be ready for the heart of winter when the time comes. Hope the weather is nice for your Golf game too and that the tropics don't ruin things for you. CVG made it down to 39 this morning.

Dang Tim , 6 weddings? Did you come out of retirement and become a professional wedding crasher?


The -NAO eventually gets us closer to normality for temps . With how above normal Canada has been its effects are muted on the lower 48. It mostly will have a larger effect on GB and other parts of EU for a more pronounced cool spell. Does the -NAO hold on through mid month and beyond or is it progressive , will help determine temps for late month and beyond

In the last several years, the -NAO has had a tendency to hook up with the SE Ridge. Let's hope that doesn't happen again. We need the SE ridge to retrograde to the west / north to promote blocking. If the SE ridge and -NAO hook up, then it's an all out blowtorch for Canada and the US.

You might not want to look at the 500mb forecast from the CPC . (I saw that yesterday )

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:07 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:07 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:00 am Good Morning a little frosty outside this morning but it feels nice imo. Les you have the forecast down and I agree about rainfall amounts. Then another system later next week so yes November is working out the way we saw back in October. No doubt we will be above normal temp wise for November plus we have a good shot of being above normal for rainfall which is something new. More changes later in the month but lets get to mid-month before heading down that road. Leaving for the annual Hilton Head Golf Trip on the 17th and looking for some nice weather. Once I get back we are heading into Thanksgiving week. Of course two more weddings to attend which will be six for the year wow.

You're a busy man Tim! At least you'll be ready for the heart of winter when the time comes. Hope the weather is nice for your Golf game too and that the tropics don't ruin things for you. CVG made it down to 39 this morning.

Dang Tim , 6 weddings? Did you come out of retirement and become a professional wedding crasher?


The -NAO eventually gets us closer to normality for temps . With how above normal Canada has been its effects are muted on the lower 48. It mostly will have a larger effect on GB and other parts of EU for a more pronounced cool spell. Does the -NAO hold on through mid month and beyond or is it progressive , will help determine temps for late month and beyond

In the last several years, the -NAO has had a tendency to hook up with the SE Ridge. Let's hope that doesn't happen again. We need the SE ridge to retrograde to the west / north to promote blocking. If the SE ridge and -NAO hook up, then it's an all out blowtorch for Canada and the US.

You might not want to look at the 500mb forecast from the CPC . (I saw that yesterday )

I saw it I have wrote off most of November for cold and wintry weather. Hoping to see some signs late this month and into December of change. It's too early to make any calls yet for that far out,

38 now at CVG so that looks to do it for the overnight low. I have yet to see a good frost IMBY. I know some of you have though.

Yea , I figured you did. Its definitely on the table, but far enough out I want to wait and see that a few more days showing up

This is probably a tad bit overdone but the NAM is coming in really juiced up for this weekend. 1.51" at CVG for the Sat night / Sunday system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:16 am This is probably a tad bit overdone but the NAM is coming in really juiced up for this weekend. 1.51" at CVG for the Sat night / Sunday system.

Hey Les and probably see this change from model run to model run depending exactly where the heaviest rain shows on each run. I like your call and if there was a place that I saw may be higher in rain totals is south of us. How quickly does the rain move through the area and that 4a-8a period is so important and if you are in the middle of the storm at that time and rains are heaviest this time period tends to add to the totals. So your 0.75-1 inch looks like the most likely totals but as we say with each storm some folks may be just under those totals and some higher. The dew points should rise over the next 36 hours so the atmosphere will waste little time in promoting rain and this always helps in totals. We may be above normal in rainfall by Monday and that is good news plus we are getting systems 3-4days apart so its not one big rain and done but several systems with decent rains and most of it can soak in.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:24 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:16 am This is probably a tad bit overdone but the NAM is coming in really juiced up for this weekend. 1.51" at CVG for the Sat night / Sunday system.

Hey Les and probably see this change from model run to model run depending exactly where the heaviest rain shows on each run. I like your call and if there was a place that I saw may be higher in rain totals is south of us. How quickly does the rain move through the area and that 4a-8a period is so important and if you are in the middle of the storm at that time and rains are heaviest this time period tends to add to the totals. So your 0.75-1 inch looks like the most likely totals but as we say with each storm some folks may be just under those totals and some higher. The dew points should rise over the next 36 hours so the atmosphere will waste little time in promoting rain and this always helps in totals. We may be above normal in rainfall by Monday and that is good news plus we are getting systems 3-4days apart so its not one big rain and done but several systems with decent rains and most of it can soak in.

I agree Tim. If we see any thunderstorms, that should be south of us over KY and that is where the higher amounts should be as you mentioned so we are on the same page here for sure. I like the fact that we are slowly turning more active. We expected this back in October that November would turn more active. I was probably off by a week but the overall thoughts by most of us on this forum have been spot on! We remain mild which again was expected by this forum. We are now going to need to work on the following and that is do things change? If so, when? At last check, we are shooting for the time period around Thanksgiving. However at the same time, don't be surprised if that gets punted even further down the road. Recall that we have seen the -PDO get even stronger! The interesting thing is that the blocking near Iceland is also record breaking since 1950. So we have a record breaking -PDO over the Pacific and a record strong ridge in the North Atlantic. So far this had led to warmth in the East. The La Nina is going to be too weak so ENSO isn't going to alter the pattern this winter. We'll have to wait and see if the MJO can. I am not betting on it though with how strong the -PDO is. Just hoping that we see it weaken at some point over the winter to allow for a wintry period or two for us. We'll see how things go once December gets closer.

Great Post Les and I believe most on here believe its not going to be a blockbuster winter but that does not mean we won't have some periods of winter weather. I have always used the 4 week approach. That is 4 weeks where we get a decent chance of winter weather aka snow,ice and 4 weeks where it could go either way and many times that is the old rain to snow with little accumulation and then 4 weeks where chances of seeing any winter preicp is unlikely. Of course some years we do better and some not so much but living here this is what you get for the most part.

I am just glad the pattern is changing and also glad its more a step down approach because it seems when you get that quick change it seems not to last and the step down approach seems to work somewhat better most of the time.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:46 am Great Post Les and I believe most on here believe its not going to be a blockbuster winter but that does not mean we won't have some periods of winter weather. I have always used the 4 week approach. That is 4 weeks where we get a decent chance of winter weather aka snow,ice and 4 weeks where it could go either way and many times that is the old rain to snow with little accumulation and then 4 weeks where chances of seeing any winter preicp is unlikely. Of course some years we do better and some not so much but living here this is what you get for the most part.

I am just glad the pattern is changing and also glad its more a step down approach because it seems when you get that quick change it seems not to last and the step down approach seems to work somewhat better most of the time.

Agreed Tim... it is definitely a step down approach. Heck, it's a one step forward, two steps back type of transition. What I mean by that is, it'll be a slow one. We will certainly see some wintry periods. When and the duration remains to be seen. We'll be here to track all of that, both the good and the bad. It's just that this year I have zero expectations and will be pleasantly surprised when something good does happen.

Low to mid 60s across the area today. Got the grill going and some cold beer on this fine November day! Uncle Les's meat and veggie packet. Cheddar smoked sausage, peppers, onions and spices!

Both CVG / CMH reached 65 and DAY 64 today.

Good morning to you all and Happy Saturday! Get your leaves taken care of today as by tomorrow they will be a matted mess! Still expecting up to an inch of rain being possible later tonight and esp on Sunday. Sunday looks like one of those all day soakers to me which we very much need around here. Lighter amounts north and west, heaviest will fall south and east.

As we get into next week, our next system works in on Wed. That system doesn't look as robust as the previous one. Around the 20th looking longer term, the GFS continues to show a very strong frontal system with a big shot of cold air behind it. We would actually fall below normal in temps if this is right for a few days along with our first freeze of the season. We will continue to monitor this change to see if it is real or not.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 09, 2024 6:39 am Good morning to you all and Happy Saturday! Get your leaves taken care of today as by tomorrow they will be a matted mess! Still expecting up to an inch of rain being possible later tonight and esp on Sunday. Sunday looks like one of those all day soakers to me which we very much need around here. Lighter amounts north and west, heaviest will fall south and east.

As we get into next week, our next system works in on Wed. That system doesn't look as robust as the previous one. Around the 20th looking longer term, the GFS continues to show a very strong frontal system with a big shot of cold air behind it. We would actually fall below normal in temps if this is right for a few days along with our first freeze of the season. We will continue to monitor this change to see if it is real or not.

We weren’t too far off on getting at least a portion of Rafael’s moisture to boost amounts. Agree with the current qpf amounts forecast but could have been 2-4” with the added tropical moisture . Going to enjoy tomorrow’s rains nonetheless!!!!

Agree with extended temps , around the 20th or so, either side of closer to normal for a few days. If I remember right, you had a post about the latest freeze for CVG and it’s around that time period???

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Nov 09, 2024 7:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 09, 2024 6:39 am Good morning to you all and Happy Saturday! Get your leaves taken care of today as by tomorrow they will be a matted mess! Still expecting up to an inch of rain being possible later tonight and esp on Sunday. Sunday looks like one of those all day soakers to me which we very much need around here. Lighter amounts north and west, heaviest will fall south and east.

As we get into next week, our next system works in on Wed. That system doesn't look as robust as the previous one. Around the 20th looking longer term, the GFS continues to show a very strong frontal system with a big shot of cold air behind it. We would actually fall below normal in temps if this is right for a few days along with our first freeze of the season. We will continue to monitor this change to see if it is real or not.

We weren’t too far off on getting at least a portion of Rafael’s moisture to boost amounts. Agree with the current qpf amounts forecast but could have been 2-4” with the added tropical moisture . Going to enjoy tomorrow’s rains nonetheless!!!!

Agree with extended temps , around the 20th or so, either side of closer to normal for a few days. If I remember right, you had a post about the latest freeze for CVG and it’s around that time period???

Yes. The latest first freeze is November 27th at Cincinnati and Columbus, and November 25th at Dayton.

From the Gummer.... Cincy's avg 1st snow of 1" or greater is on December 12th.