Absolute Vorticity

CVG got to 71, DAY 69 and CMH 67 today.

40 for a low here

Next 10 days look like the last 10 days qpf wise , some sprinkles with the cold front late weekend. Don’t be shocked to see an 80 degree temp near the river counties this weekend. Chance for patchy frost next week with the trough centered more over the Great Lakes than what we saw this week over the NE. Close to normal for the region to see frost mid month

Good morning all and Happy Friday! 42 for the low here, CVG 46. Not much else to say as Bgoney has us covered very nicely. Can't rule out a shower Sun morning. Best chance will be the further north you go. We've been touting an 80 degree reading this weekend also for many days now as well as the cool down and frost chance for early next week.

Side note... Anyone see the Northern Lights last night? You could even see them from my hood which was a shock!

In the extended, EU-AI has another warmup after next week’s cool down. With highs in the mid/upper 70s and high DPs to go with it . Then looks like it wants to sweep a cold front through (maybe some T-storms?) sometime during the last week of the month, as it doesn’t quite go out that far. Long ways out and still testing the AI model , which has done well with the 500mb pattern all summer and fall and imo, is moving in with the EPS/GEFs tier as far as weight being given in forecasting

Good Morning and guys have it covered for the next week to ten days. Looking ahead and is the pattern we see next week one that takes through the remainder of fall and into the winter. Sometimes these patterns do take shape in October and in recent years patterns are not easy to bust like we have seen since August.

If this happens to be the pattern then we will be on the edge of the cold to the north and east and warmth to the south and west. I do believe the jet is going to be near us quite often in the Nov-March period which should help in the drought situation. The central and southern Plains may have a dry and rather mild winter and the southeast mild as well though may see more storminess.

This is not set in stone by any means but this is one that would bring the clipper train near us several times. The GOM is still warm so if we are able to get a few fronts to make it into the GOM this winter this could wind up a few storms as well.

Just an early look and who knows by November this could change but it really is a classic low end La Nina pattern.

Speaking of winter Barrow may have seen its last 32 degree day until March or April and the really first big storm in northeast Alaska with 6-16 inches expected. Mid-Oct and winter really starts to set in quite quickly for much of Alaska.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 8:40 am In the extended, EU-AI has another warmup after next week’s cool down. With highs in the mid/upper 70s and high DPs to go with it . Then looks like it wants to sweep a cold front through (maybe some T-storms?) sometime during the last week of the month, as it doesn’t quite go out that far. Long ways out and still testing the AI model , which has done well with the 500mb pattern all summer and fall and imo, is moving in with the EPS/GEFs tier as far as weight being given in forecasting

That might be lining up with my call of finally seeing some changes around the last week of the month. The tropics have to shut down IMO for it to happen. I still say we get one more Caribbean / Gulf system close to home before all is said and done.

I agree with the warm up in the extended range. GEFS and EPS both are showing another massive ridge for us. Definitely could see 75 to 80 degree temps for a day or two during the next warming period. We'll see how my last week of the month call looks as we get closer. If it's warm, of course my call will be dead wrong, which means the warmth would linger into early Nov too. This pattern has been very very persistent and it is going to be very tough to break. One thing that would break it up is if a tropical system combines with a mid latitude system and runs up the East Coast and creates the dumb bell effect to drawn in much colder air for us and a ridge would punch way northward out West. Don't know if that'll happen or not but this is one way out of this boring weather pattern that we've been stuck in for months (minus Helene's remnants).

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 9:32 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 8:40 am In the extended, EU-AI has another warmup after next week’s cool down. With highs in the mid/upper 70s and high DPs to go with it . Then looks like it wants to sweep a cold front through (maybe some T-storms?) sometime during the last week of the month, as it doesn’t quite go out that far. Long ways out and still testing the AI model , which has done well with the 500mb pattern all summer and fall and imo, is moving in with the EPS/GEFs tier as far as weight being given in forecasting

That might be lining up with my call of finally seeing some changes around the last week of the month. The tropics have to shut down IMO for it to happen. I still say we get one more Caribbean / Gulf system close to home before all is said and done.

Yea , a lot of questions for the last week still tbd. There’s going to be some changes in the 500mb pattern for sure before that with a trough finally coming into the west and then the central US finally giving them at least a chance at precipitation which they haven’t seen in a long time. How things evolve after that is tough to say but hopefully the AI is on to something there for us and chances of precipitation going up

Thru 10/25, the MJO will be going thru the warm phases 4-6. We'll have to wait and see what it does after that. Phases 8-2 have been hard to come by the last several falls and winters due largely in part to the marine heat wave and West Pacific warm pool. I honestly don't see that changing at this point with the severe -PDO in place.

74 so far here today, 73 at CVG. Just got done mowing the lawn and mulching up some leaves. That will probably do it for a couple of weeks thanks to the lack of rain. The grass was still growing thanks to the lawn care co. that comes out and fertilizes plus the rain from Helene too. Ground is getting hard and cracked again though in some areas, at least here, so I probably won't mow again until the leaves get deep. If we get a frost early next week, that should slow the grass down too. Getting ready to grill some chili dogs and have a few beers here shortly.

I won't be on much tomorrow. We are leaving early tomorrow morning for Colton's football game then if Harper wins her first game in a volleyball tournament tomorrow then we will be attending some of those games as well. Then, a fish fry at my brother's for dinner! YUMMY!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 3:59 pm 74 so far here today, 73 at CVG. Just got done mowing the lawn and mulching up some leaves. That will probably do it for a couple of weeks thanks to the lack of rain. The grass was still growing thanks to the lawn care co. that comes out and fertilizes plus the rain from Helene too. Ground is getting hard and cracked again though in some areas, at least here, so I probably won't mow again until the leaves get deep. If we get a frost early next week, that should slow the grass down too. Getting ready to grill some chili dogs and have a few beers here shortly.

I won't be on much tomorrow. We are leaving early tomorrow morning for Colton's football game then if Harper wins her first game in a volleyball tournament tomorrow then we will be attending some of those games as well. Then, a fish fry at my brother's for dinner! YUMMY!

Sounds like a great Saturday Les. I had the chili dogs last night

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 3:59 pm 74 so far here today, 73 at CVG. Just got done mowing the lawn and mulching up some leaves. That will probably do it for a couple of weeks thanks to the lack of rain. The grass was still growing thanks to the lawn care co. that comes out and fertilizes plus the rain from Helene too. Ground is getting hard and cracked again though in some areas, at least here, so I probably won't mow again until the leaves get deep. If we get a frost early next week, that should slow the grass down too. Getting ready to grill some chili dogs and have a few beers here shortly.

I won't be on much tomorrow. We are leaving early tomorrow morning for Colton's football game then if Harper wins her first game in a volleyball tournament tomorrow then we will be attending some of those games as well. Then, a fish fry at my brother's for dinner! YUMMY!

Enjoy your Saturday Bro and family activities!

The very best to Colton, Harper and their teams!

Both CVG / CMH reached 74 and DAY 75 today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 4:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 3:59 pm 74 so far here today, 73 at CVG. Just got done mowing the lawn and mulching up some leaves. That will probably do it for a couple of weeks thanks to the lack of rain. The grass was still growing thanks to the lawn care co. that comes out and fertilizes plus the rain from Helene too. Ground is getting hard and cracked again though in some areas, at least here, so I probably won't mow again until the leaves get deep. If we get a frost early next week, that should slow the grass down too. Getting ready to grill some chili dogs and have a few beers here shortly.

I won't be on much tomorrow. We are leaving early tomorrow morning for Colton's football game then if Harper wins her first game in a volleyball tournament tomorrow then we will be attending some of those games as well. Then, a fish fry at my brother's for dinner! YUMMY!

Sounds like a great Saturday Les. I had the chili dogs last night

Awesome Tim! Love 'em on the grill, over a camp fire, etc. It's the best way to have them IMO.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 5:08 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 11, 2024 3:59 pm 74 so far here today, 73 at CVG. Just got done mowing the lawn and mulching up some leaves. That will probably do it for a couple of weeks thanks to the lack of rain. The grass was still growing thanks to the lawn care co. that comes out and fertilizes plus the rain from Helene too. Ground is getting hard and cracked again though in some areas, at least here, so I probably won't mow again until the leaves get deep. If we get a frost early next week, that should slow the grass down too. Getting ready to grill some chili dogs and have a few beers here shortly.

I won't be on much tomorrow. We are leaving early tomorrow morning for Colton's football game then if Harper wins her first game in a volleyball tournament tomorrow then we will be attending some of those games as well. Then, a fish fry at my brother's for dinner! YUMMY!

Enjoy your Saturday Bro and family activities!

The very best to Colton, Harper and their teams!

Thank you Bro! Same to you and your folks! Cooper plays on Sunday morning but we're not going to that one. I need at least 1 day a week when I don't have to drive somewhere! It's an early game too in the morning.

Good Morning and a bit milder this morning and should be no problem getting into the upper 70's and we may touch 80 for a few minutes as well. Sunday similar though the winds will pick up later in the day as the first really true cold front of the autumn season heads this way. 3 days in the 50's and lows in the 30's and chances of frost will go up. By the end of the week heading back into the upper 60's.

Took awhile across the nation except the northeast to see autumn try to make an appearance. The tropics over the next few weeks and will that action finally stay far enough south to avoid the USA. Usually this is the case in later October but this season got down and dirty the past few weeks. MJO moving toward 4-6 and this usually will calm the tropics in this part of the world.GOM still has warm waters but not like a couple of weeks ago.

Models are even showing some decent rains in the plains and that will be a big change for them as they have been high and dry which btw is a great album. So yes boring for the upcoming week besides chances for frost but my guess Mother Nature will get active soon enough and hopefully for November that means some decent rainfall

Good morning all! 47 here currently, CVG checking in with 50 degrees. Tim's above post has us covered. Hope all enjoys their weekend! And at 1:08pm today Go TIGERS!

A beautiful day and we are starting to see the first of many frost and freeze warnings over the next 5 days or so. This one located in southern Nebraska. We can watch this come across the eastern half of the country this week

CVG got to 79 and both DAY / CMH 78 today.

Good Football Sunday morning to you all! Before we get to the weather, I'd like to start off by saying great news Eric and I'm glad your Mom's surgery went well! Also let's all wish JR76 a very Happy Birthday today! Thanks for being part of our forum community!

Okay so on to the forecast... CVG hit 79 yesterday and we can expect similar temps if not cracking 80 today. It'll be a breezy day with SW winds gusting 20-30 mph ahead of the next cold front. Temps will drop and stay in the 50s for highs tomorrow thru Wed. We also have a small shower chance (best chance North) Mon night and Tues with the upper trough moving thru. As far as frost chances go, Wed and Thurs mornings offer up the best chances with mid 30s expected in city areas and 29-32 in rural outlying areas. I expect frost advisories to be issued for the entire area on those two nights (Tues night and Wed night). Patchy frost is also possible for Fri morning with the upper 30s expected for CVG Land. Highs for the second half of the week will warm into the 60s with 70s back by either Fri or the weekend. Clear skies at night and sunny days (other then Mon and Tues) can be expected thru the forecast period into next weekend.

In the extended range, our next system might come around the 24-25th and another towards the end of the month. Rain chances might be picking up a bit as well for the last week of the month. That has been my call for a while now and I still see evidence on the models to support it so no changes there from me. Also seeing some colder air building in Canada oozing down into the N Plains so some snowfall in those areas is also looking possible as we get towards the end of the month. I like what I am seeing with regards to some changes finally coming our way. It's still a ways out there so I don't have high confidence just yet, so we'll call it medium being this far out still. Give it another week and we should know the correct answer by then.

The Ensembles are showing ridging poking up into Alaska with a trough over the Pacific NW / N Plains / Rockies and ridging for the Lakes, OV, SE US and into New England with a +NAO / +AO with cold air / trough building over Canada / Greenland areas. That is definitely looking more La Nina like at 500 MB as we go deeper into the Fall. That is not a wintry pattern for us with the ridging over the East, but maybe it'll lead to some rain if we are close enough to the storm track. Not sure if that will remain to our NW or not this far out in time. The pattern I described does match up with the MJO Phase 4-6 progression for the second half of October as we have discussed previously on here so no surprises to be honest at this point. Again, all we are looking for are better rain chances with the new pattern but as long as the ridging remains in place, mild weather will continue after next week's cool spell.

Good Morning Les and great post. Most of the time during a 1st year La Nina the autumns are usually milder than normal. That looks to be the case so far and see no reason to change. With Canada being so warm the past 6 weeks at least Mother Nature will be working overtime to cool them off and she should exceed as they tend to become quite cold early in November with a La Nina

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 8:37 am Good Morning Les and great post. Most of the time during a 1st year La Nina the autumns are usually milder than normal. That looks to be the case so far and see no reason to change. With Canada being so warm the past 6 weeks at least Mother Nature will be working overtime to cool them off and she should exceed as they tend to become quite cold early in November with a La Nina

Good morning Tim and I agree. I think November will most likely start out on the mild side due to that big ridge over Eastern North America. What may happen after that though for the second half of November is that the ridge retrogrades more to the north creating a blocking pattern for later in Nov / early Dec which gives us a shot at early winter weather. I am leaning your way for this potential and that is one way to get it done.

63 for a low at cvg, if we don’t drop below that before midnight, it’s a top 5 warmest low for the date

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 10:01 am 63 for a low at cvg, if we don’t drop below that before midnight, it’s a top 5 warmest low for the date

It'll depend on how quickly the front moves thru. Looking at surface obs, it looks like the front is running from near Toledo, to NW of IND to NW of STL.