Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning Les and your forecast looks good. Rainfall over the next 6-8 days does not look good though you can't rule out a isolated shower and again with the push from the Francine you may see an hour or two of rain but there will be a wall where the rain will come to a stop and that is near us. I love the NWS and this time at CVG where yesterday the high was 89 and low 51 and the average is 69.9. Not sure about this new math but I show an average of 70. Yes it may not seem like much but how often do NWS offices raise the temp in the official record even if only by a tenth but after awhile this will add up.

Good morning Tim. the cut off with the rain from Francine will be much like what we see in winter when dry air kills a snow storm chance for us. The set up here with the leftovers of Francine will be no different I am going with a tenth of an inch or less at CVG. just SW of the Metro is where the best chances for rain will occur. North and NE of Cincy likely won't even see a drop from it.

I'm not feeling too good about next week's rain chance either from the tropical wave coming in from the East. Latest guidance keeps most of the forecast area dry. I continue to see mainly above normal temps due to the lack of any strong cold fronts. The rest of the month mainly looks boring and on the dry side to me. Hopefully, we can start to pull out of this pattern in October.

CVG has only picked up 0.07" of rain for the entire month of September thus far. I'll have to check the records to see what the top ten driest Septembers are. I have no doubt that Sept 2024 will be a top ten dry month.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 6:22 am Good morning Tim. the cut off with the rain from Francine will be much like what we see in winter when dry air kills a snow storm chance for us. The set up here with the leftovers of Francine will be no different I am going with a tenth of an inch or less at CVG. just SW of the Metro is where the best chances for rain will occur. North and NE of Cincy likely won't even see a drop from it.

I'm not feeling too good about next week's rain chance either from the tropical wave coming in from the East. Latest guidance keeps most of the forecast area dry. I continue to see mainly above normal temps due to the lack of any strong cold fronts. The rest of the month mainly looks boring and on the dry side to me. Hopefully, we can start to pull out of this pattern in October.

No doubt Les and hopefully this winter we are on the good side of precip. I still believe the trough out west will start to lift next week and this should start to allow systems moving from Canada into the USA. No doubt the ridge has been really far north in Canada but that should break down late next week. The tropics as usual will play a part in how these fronts will play out and at the moment we see the tropics are having a hard time in the Atlantic plus once you get deeper into September and October these storms tend to be a little further south which also allows fronts to move through. Still going with near normal for the month on temps and the main reason is the dry ground and yes daytime highs get rather toasty but overnight lows should drop quickly and especially after fall starts and usually about 2-4 days afterwards you can see how the sunshine has shifted and its just not as bright or strong.

The latest Ensemble guidance out to Day 16, largely keep the same pattern in place. A trough from the Gulf of Alaska to near the West coast of North American with a monster ridge over the Central US, N Plains, Canada and the Great Lakes. I see zero signs of this pattern breaking down anytime soon. The tropics aren't of any help as of yet.

Not quite half way through the month, but the 500mb pattern is that bad for meaningful precip it’s time to look at the calendar month records for least amount of qpf. (CVG) and if we make top ten.

Dayton /Cbus for good measure

Top Ten driest September's at CVG:

Good Morning and another wonderful video by Brian. What you are not seeing in our area at the moment is dew points rising quickly. Many times once you get the flow from the GOM those dew points rise. To much influence from the north plus the dew points are not that high to the south of us and mainly 60's in the gulf states. Yes its mid-September and rarely do we see dew points get near 70 and many times not so easy above 60 here locally and another reason nighttime lows can drop quickly. I still believe the pattern does start to change later next week to the west of us as the trough in the west starts to lift into Canada and this will then allow some cool or cold fronts to start heading to the south and east. I believe models are almost either to slow or to fast with pattern changes. Without any other tropical system nearing the mainland USA later next week this opens the door for fronts to head southeast as the road block should be out of the way. Again wait until probably Monday or Tuesday of next week to see those changes on the models and many times it seems like overnight they change but there are subtle changes that happens before hand.

We have a SE wind but it's a down sloping wind coming off the mountains. Plus the worst of the drought is east of here so that is advecting even more dry air in despite the leftovers from Francine trying to push up from the south, Makes sense to me why the dews aren't responding very quickly.

85 as of 1pm at CVG. A possible 89 or a 90 is in play for today. East wind so any moisture that tries to come our way will dry up from Francine. 12Z GFS still showing very little in the way of rain for the rest of the month.

Another week of expansion of the drought in area coverage and severity , westward and southward. Next week nearly all of southern Ohio will be in D2/D3/D4. Pretty unbelievable

12z temps next week , for the time of year, are borderline heat wave

Not good for IN and KY counties either. Seeing some patches of D2 severe drought in NKY. Wouldn't be surprised to see more of the reds D3 and D4 expanding west as time goes on. I truly believe a Top Ten dry Sept is on the way. I don't see much rain for the rest of the month at all.

CVG got 89'ed again per the 5pm climate report.88 here today.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 2:07 pm 12z temps next week , for the time of year, are borderline heat wave

Going to be cloudiness around Tuesday and Wednesday and dew points will still be low so no heat wave imo. Yes above normal which should finally get us back to normal for the month by the 20th. Then we wait on the last 10 days of the month to see where we end up.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 6:02 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 2:07 pm 12z temps next week , for the time of year, are borderline heat wave

Going to be cloudiness around Tuesday and Wednesday and dew points will still be low so no heat wave imo. Yes above normal which should finally get us back to normal for the month by the 20th. Then we wait on the last 10 days of the month to see where we end up.

Yep that’s why I used borderline and time of year. Those days could end up in the upper 80s like the rest , because we can’t underestimate the power of the expansive drought. I’m not sure the clouds don’t dissipate traveling into our area . Or like today high thin clouds and we get 89d. They may or may not at this point

CVG, DAY and CMH all 89'ed on Thurs.

Good morning all! I am watching one of the outer bands from Francine on radar and it is approaching the LOU and LEX areas now. This is our shot (if we are going to get one) of rain from Francine. Eventually, that outer band will "run out of gas" if you will and the dry air will overcome it. You'll see it weaken on radar at some point today. How far NE can it get? That is what we will be watching for today. SW counties as expected have the best shot. Most of you, esp north and NE of Cincy will remain dry. Due to clouds from Francine, the low to mid 80s should work for high temps across the region. Expecting mid to upper 80s for highs this weekend as well as next week. Rain chances look slim to none thru the entire period unfortunately.

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Awesome sunrise this morning with the different red hue’s

You can see the center of what's left of Francine over AR so it's tracking very far to the West which is a big reason why the dry air is going to win the battle. A secondary factor as everyone knows is also the drought. Still watching that outer band is that is all the hope we have with this particular system.

Ensembles have the +WPO/-PDO 500 mb pattern finishing out the month , so what you see is what you get for a while. There’s no below normal airmass in NA. Cooler temps associated with low pressure systems in the plains/midwest occasionally but no build up of cooler air masses in Canada or US

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 8:29 am Ensembles have the +WPO/-PDO 500 mb pattern finishing out the month , so what you see is what you get for a while. There’s no below normal airmass in NA. Cooler temps associated with low pressure systems in the plains/midwest occasionally but no build up of cooler air masses in Canada or US

Agreed, I have also said that won't be seeing much rain for the rest of September. A top ten dry Sept is a slam dunk with a real shot at the driest ever at CVG. MJO going thru Phases 6 and 7 which are not cold phases for the Eastern US. Check out the global SST anomalies. The Japanese heat wave continues just like the last few years and the waters near Newfoundland and S of Greenland are torching. That usually leads to a positive NAO.


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/