Absolute Vorticity

Can't rule out a slim shot for rain early in the week... it's isolated. Best chances for everyone look to come Thurs - next weekend at this time. Typical August highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s (after tonight) can be expected for the next week or so.

Welcome back Les!

Opening day of the Great Darke Co Fair looks esp wet with currently a 60% POPs for Fri.

CVG got to 79, DAY 77 and CMH 80 today.

Good morning all! Another lovely day upcoming. 58 at CVG per the 4am reading. I have 56 currently here. We have that small shower risk late today / this evening (again most will be dry) then we continue to await Thurs and Fri as our best chances. Lingering chances over the weekend. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. In the extended range, another front comes thru towards the middle of next week to keep the trough reinforced. No big heat excepted over the next 10 days.

CVG now down to 56!

Good Morning Les. Forecast looks good and rain chances imo look nice for the end of the week. Should have some heat in the south central states and parts of Oklahoma have been getting tons of rain. That heat will make a run at us but looks to run into a trough and front here in the Ohio Valley. Getting warm moist air over somewhat cooler air and this is a recipe for some decent rains. I agree with you on any long term heat. I know a few met's out there have been promoting extended heat since early July and that has not happened locally. Yes I do believe some heat in the south central states but with the amount of rain in Oklahoma the heat will increase but more the humidity with all the wet grounds. Are we out of the woods in terms of 90 degree temps and way too early for that call and we know with the tropics getting busy this can produce some decent heights locally at times. One good item is if we can get a widespread rain over the next 10 days it does make it harder for extended heat and many times late August and September the heat is usually one where we are very dry and temps can go up 30 degrees in a day as the air not quite as moist compared to mid-summer.

Thanks Tim and good morning! I am hearing some chatter about the current pattern potentially being the dominant Fall pattern. That would be nice if true, I'm not forecasting that at this time, but I am curious to see if the heat returns towards the end of this month, or does the current trough pattern over us repeat itself? We shall see! I am seeing model data representing both ideas. We'll just have to wait and see. As we both know, the tropics can and probably will, play a role in all this. For now, as you said before, Ernesto will be a fish storm so we'll watch and wait to see what develops after that one.

For us this summer except for June and a few days here and there the Bermuda High has anchored out in the Atlantic Ocean. This has allowed fronts to move through plus some flow from the GOM. Not sure if the Bermuda High will be able to take hold in the mainland this season which is great news. With all the rain up the east coast last week just one added problem for these highs to take hold. As we know the world is connected and what happens around the world can cause patterns elsewhere to take hold. One item is the India monsoon season in which India itself and much of southeast Asia have benefited from some decent rains. The monsoon season though has not extended westward much and folks in the middle east have baked all summer and sure they are always hot in the summer but usually by this time some rains have helped out and not much so far. The southwest USA has had a hard time as well in getting the monsoon season to take hold and yes some rains recently but not all folks getting rain. Alaska has been rather warm this season except for the panhandle as they have been wet and cool. Like always we try and figure out the next move from Mother Nature and sometimes she is easy to read and other times quite tricky and she can make met;s,forecasters and models look silly

Great post Tim! That is a nice summation of what's been happening this summer. I definitely busted on the hot temp idea but the precip idea of being dry IMO has been decent. It all depends on your location, Folks south of us in KY have been wet where our local area and esp SE Ohio have struggled as far as the OV is concerned. Not a perfect summer forecast by any means but I enjoy the challenge. Seasonal forecasting is very tough despite our best efforts and the technology that we have in place. You've said this many times, and I totally agree.... Mother Nature will always have the last say and that point will always be true.

Love looking at the models especially the gfs in the longer term. As we know you just take them with a grain of salt most of the time because they usually go back to the mean forecast with anything 10 days and out.

So far Tim... the pattern in the longer term as shown by the GEFS / EPS, shows a trough over the West Coast and another over the East Coast with the core of the heat ridge located over the 4 Corners / S Plains regions. We look to have continued NW Flow in the upper levels. That doesn't necessary mean a very active pattern in late August (like it did earlier in the summer with MCS's), but at the same time, no big heat either. Kind of the status quo I guess.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 7:07 am So far Tim... the pattern in the longer term as shown by the GEFS / EPS, shows a trough over the West Coast and another over the East Coast with the core of the heat ridge located over the 4 Corners / S Plains regions. We look to have continued NW Flow in the upper levels. That doesn't necessary mean a very active pattern in late August (like it did earlier in the summer with MCS's), but at the same time, no big heat either. Kind of the status quo I guess.

Totally agree with the longterm 500mb pattern and the lesser impacts for MCSs . Really need to take advantage of the medium range rain chances

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 11:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 7:07 am So far Tim... the pattern in the longer term as shown by the GEFS / EPS, shows a trough over the West Coast and another over the East Coast with the core of the heat ridge located over the 4 Corners / S Plains regions. We look to have continued NW Flow in the upper levels. That doesn't necessary mean a very active pattern in late August (like it did earlier in the summer with MCS's), but at the same time, no big heat either. Kind of the status quo I guess.

Totally agree with the longterm 500mb pattern and the lesser impacts for MCSs . Really need to take advantage of the medium range rain chances

Even though Ernesto will remain a fish storm, I do think that it will help determine the speed at which our next system exits the area. I have rain chances in for Thurs - the weekend. Might need to extend that into early next week should Ernesto slow down in forward speed. Right now PTC #5 is cruising along at a very fast clip so that remains to be seen if rain chances linger beyond the weekend or not.

82 here today. Another beauty with the low humidity. I watered the plants and crops. They should make it now until we get our next rain chances by Thursday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 5:08 pm 82 here today. Another beauty with the low humidity. I watered the plants and crops. They should make it now until we get our next rain chances by Thursday.

Currently 77 here in G'ville. ILN is unusually late today with temp data.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 5:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 5:08 pm 82 here today. Another beauty with the low humidity. I watered the plants and crops. They should make it now until we get our next rain chances by Thursday.

Currently 77 here in G'ville. ILN is unusually late today with temp data.

Currently 82 now at CVG so IMO that is most likely going to be the high. At least the lateness of the climate report has no impact on our 90 degree day contest.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 5:30 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 5:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 5:08 pm 82 here today. Another beauty with the low humidity. I watered the plants and crops. They should make it now until we get our next rain chances by Thursday.

Currently 77 here in G'ville. ILN is unusually late today with temp data.

Currently 82 now at CVG so IMO that is most likely going to be the high. At least the lateness of the climate report has no impact on our 90 degree day contest.

Nope!

CVG reached 83, DAY 80 and CMH 84 today.

Not to impressed with the qpf totals for late week into the weekend . Short waves weakening as they hit the OV

Good morning all! I agree with Bgoney's above post. In fact, the best chance now looks to be with a weakening shortwave Thurs night after midnight into Fri morning. Outside of that timeframe, the action looks to be more isolated. As usual, some will see 1/2" or more and others not so much. That's been the theme of our summer and that looks to continue unfortunately. At least we don't have the heat to deal with so that's one positive.

Good Morning and Les I believe yesterday you mentioned how we made need to add the weekend for chances of rainfall and that seems correct. Reason and yes the tropical system that will be located in the western Atlantic Ocean. We saw this last week with Debby and had to adjust the forecast and this is the tricky part in forecasting when you have a tropical system in this part of the world. I believe the problem with rainfall totals once again is some folks can get a quick inch or two with a thunderstorm and folks nearby get 0. Almost hard to throw out totals but you must mentioned that rain chances are there. Of course we have had dry air for a few days and yes the atmosphere must moisten up but that should happen enough that by later Thursday chances go up. The bigger news probably is we get back to wonderful weather early next week with lower humidity and temps a few degrees below normal.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2024 6:40 am Good Morning and Les I believe yesterday you mentioned how we made need to add the weekend for chances of rainfall and that seems correct. Reason and yes the tropical system that will be located in the western Atlantic Ocean. We saw this last week with Debby and had to adjust the forecast and this is the tricky part in forecasting when you have a tropical system in this part of the world. I believe the problem with rainfall totals once again is some folks can get a quick inch or two with a thunderstorm and folks nearby get 0. Almost hard to throw out totals but you must mentioned that rain chances are there. Of course we have had dry air for a few days and yes the atmosphere must moisten up but that should happen enough that by later Thursday chances go up. The bigger news probably is we get back to wonderful weather early next week with lower humidity and temps a few degrees below normal.

Good morning Tim. Yes, I have POPS into the forecast for Thurs thru this weekend. I feel that Thurs night into Fri morning looks to be the highest chance for the entire period. I agree with you with regards to the extended forecast. Looking like low to mid 80s which is typical for mid to late August standards.

I see where central Oklahoma has a excessive heat warning. No surprise with all the rain they had the past few days and humidity levels will be off the chart. The south central states are getting hot and you will see over the next few weeks that this heat will try and move north and east. To me this adds higher chances of rainfall when we get these pieces of energy and you throw that kind of heat in the mixture. Where the heavier rain happens is a bigger question

A few sprinkles out there this morning esp in KY but nothing measurable really to speak of. We'll see how the Thurs - Weekend period goes.