Absolute Vorticity

On the Qpf side of things it’s going to end up to what we’ve been used to seeing. (Cvg/Day/Cbus) Hit and miss coverage unfortunately. Good luck to all

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 6:16 am On the Qpf side of things it’s going to end up to what we’ve been used to seeing. (Cvg/Day/Cbus) Hit and miss coverage unfortunately. Good luck to all

Looks like the low will tack from AR into S ILL then into IN. Too bad....

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:40 am Good morning! The SPC has our SW counties in a slight risk for severe wx today and a marginal risk for the rest of the areas. 5% TOR risk too thanks to the leftovers of Beryl moving thru to the west of Cincinnati. We should have enough spin, but CAPE will be in question. We shall see how much energy can be built up ahead of this system due in by afternoon. Best shot for rain is tonight into early Wed for us. The more west you are the more rain you'll get. The entire area is dry by Wed evening and we look to remain dry thru thru the weekend and as we kick off next week. The 90s also return by then too.

Looks like some scattered showers and t-storms again by Mon-Thurs at least according to Weather Underground e.g.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 7:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:40 am Good morning! The SPC has our SW counties in a slight risk for severe wx today and a marginal risk for the rest of the areas. 5% TOR risk too thanks to the leftovers of Beryl moving thru to the west of Cincinnati. We should have enough spin, but CAPE will be in question. We shall see how much energy can be built up ahead of this system due in by afternoon. Best shot for rain is tonight into early Wed for us. The more west you are the more rain you'll get. The entire area is dry by Wed evening and we look to remain dry thru thru the weekend and as we kick off next week. The 90s also return by then too.

Looks like some scattered showers and t-storms again by Mon-Thurs at least according to Weather Underground e.g.

For your hood yes.... but for Cincinnati, the chances currently are slim. This can change of course and I hope it does lol

Looking at radar... the low from Beryl looks to be moving more north then it is east which isn't hood for our local area in terms of heavy rainfall. Not looking good for CAPE either as we are socked in with clouds. We'll see I guess...

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 8:28 am Looking at radar... the low from Beryl looks to be moving more north then it is east which isn't hood for our local area in terms of heavy rainfall. Not looking good for CAPE either as we are socked in with clouds. We'll see I guess...

Yep , with all these clouds The warm front later this afternoon and evening is going to have to produce those scattered storms

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 9:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 8:28 am Looking at radar... the low from Beryl looks to be moving more north then it is east which isn't hood for our local area in terms of heavy rainfall. Not looking good for CAPE either as we are socked in with clouds. We'll see I guess...

Yep , with all these clouds The warm front later this afternoon and evening is going to have to produce those scattered storms

I'm not impressed that is for sure. This is the same outcome we get in winter when tracking a snow storm.

The SPC upgraded the LOU area to an enhanced risk and a 10% TOR area. This is just to our SW. Slight risk with 5% TOR for Cincinnati. We'll see I guess.

Hot off the presses from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Ongoing fcst remains largely on-track, with only subtle timing
changes to the onset of showers/storms later today. In the
meantime, a blanket of mid/high clouds remains entrenched across
the area, with only a few breaks in the cloud cover now
beginning to emerge in parts of central KY, which should spread
to the NE into the local area by early afternoon. However, skies
in general will remain mostly cloudy, which may slow (but not
stop) destabilization efforts as we progress later into the day.
Do think that guidance like the HRRR continues to be underdone
regarding afternoon convection/storm coverage, especially in the
Tri-State/northern KY, owing to initializations that are far
too dry (dewpoints too low) compared to obs. So there may be a
bit more in the way of storms by mid afternoon, even with the
expectation that the primary severe threat will evolve mid/late
evening.

The one item that shouldn`t be overlooked will be the torrential
rainfall rates with any of the activity through early tonight.
PWATs in excess of 2" will overspread parts of the area by this
evening, with extremely efficient rainfall rates expected in the
heaviest activity. Luckily, the storms should be moving fairly
quickly to the northeast, but any brief training or backbuilding
will undoubtedly cause localized issues if it occurs in
vulnerable/flood-prone locales. The forward motion of the
activity should preclude a more widespread flash flood threat,
but certainly 1-2" seems very likely in a few spots, especially
near/W of the I-75 corridor through this evening.

Updated severe weather outlook.

Not sure, but I think the warm front is near or just north of Lexington.

Per radar, my hood is getting a nice little t-shower.

A few sprinkles here in Indian hill

Storm Talk

https://www.facebook.com/briangoodewave ... 294861056/

0.13" as of 2pm at CVG. Had a nice downpour just move thru Mason also.

picked up .78"!!

Isolated tonadic cells in southern Ky

Got a quick 3/4" in the rain that just came through here.

Tornado watch for cvgland

1509 UNK 1 SE Goshen Oldham KY 3840 8558 A few uprooted trees on Club Drive and street light down. (LMK)

1900 UNK 2 N Dubre Cumberland KY 3686 8555 Powerlines and trees down on Fierce Fork Road. (LMK)

2031 6 N Sturgis Union KY 3763 8801 Corrects previous tornado report from 6 N Sturgis. Warned Tornado confirmed on the ground. (PAH)

2031 UNK 6 WSW Morganfield Union KY 3764 8800 Tornado damage reported ... power lines down ... damage to house. (PAH)

2032 6 N Sturgis Union KY 3763 8801 Warned Tornado confirmed on the ground. (PAH)

2121 UNK 7 W Evansville Vanderburgh IN 3799 8768 power outage reported. (PAH)

2125 UNK 3 W Owensville Gibson IN 3828 8775 pole barn knocked completely down. (PAH)

2140 6 ESE New Harmony Posey IN 3809 8785 confirmed tornado on the ground. (PAH)

2215 UNK 4 W Owensville Gibson IN 3827 8776 Report from mPING: Trees uprooted or snapped; Roof blown off. (PAH)

2321 4 NW Shoals Martin IN 3872 8684 Brief ... weak EF-0 tornado. Small trees and larger tree limbs down were the only damage reported. (IND)

0000 UNK 4 ENE Laurel Franklin IN 3952 8513 Trees reported down on Townsend Road. (ILN)

0223 UNK 2 WSW Gettysburg Darke OH 4010 8452 Large tree down ... along with smaller limbs/branches broken off. (ILN)

1049 UNK 2 NW Dunkirk Cass IN 4078 8641 Report of a tree down at US 35 and CR 100 N. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

1054 UNK 1 E Dunkirk Cass IN 4075 8638 Tree down on US 24. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

1110 UNK 1 WNW Adamsboro Cass IN 4079 8629 Time estimated via radar. Tree down at CR 450 E and CR 200 N. (IWX)

I sure hope we get more rain... a little over a tenth of an inch just isn't cutting it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 4:05 pm I sure hope we get more rain... a little over a tenth of an inch just isn't cutting it.

I received a little over a half inch earlier and that could be it for me with this event based on the widely scattered stuff on radar coming up from western KY!

when is the main show to come if it happens?

Pop ups anytime through the evening, but the best chance will probably be from a broken line between 9 and midnight . Good luck