Absolute Vorticity

That satellite pic is about as clear as you'll ever see it during the Atlantic tropical season. Wow! Still quite a bit of Saharan Dust too for the time of year.

Another week of snooze-time . The good people at the hurricane center could literally have taken a few weeks vacation time during near peak hurricane season

Something to watch and that is the mjo. Yes we tend to pay attention to this more in the winter months. Current phase is 4 but not a strong signal. The most likely phases for tropical development in the Atlantic Basin is in phases 2 and 3. We just came out of those phases and nothing to write home about and again this is not to say we can't get development in other phases but a stronger phase 2 or 3 is your best set up. The oceans have plenty of heat and that is not the problem and the Sahara Dust is still around but nothing unusual so there is something that is keeping systems from coming off the coast of Africa which we are in the Cape Verde season. I know the India monsoon season has been strong and long for them and I wonder if this has something to do with the slow development in the Atlantic. Mother Nature always balances things out but she sometimes forgets to cc us on what is happening

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2024 7:02 am Something to watch and that is the mjo. Yes we tend to pay attention to this more in the winter months. Current phase is 4 but not a strong signal. The most likely phases for tropical development in the Atlantic Basin is in phases 2 and 3. We just came out of those phases and nothing to write home about and again this is not to say we can't get development in other phases but a stronger phase 2 or 3 is your best set up. The oceans have plenty of heat and that is not the problem and the Sahara Dust is still around but nothing unusual so there is something that is keeping systems from coming off the coast of Africa which we are in the Cape Verde season. I know the India monsoon season has been strong and long for them and I wonder if this has something to do with the slow development in the Atlantic. Mother Nature always balances things out but she sometimes forgets to cc us on what is happening

Wonderful post Tim! The MJO has been in favorable phases for the Pacific / West Pac basins in terms of convection and tropical development. This is a big reason why we have been seeing a lot of action there and a quiet Atlantic. The forecast models continue to show IO forcing as we get into Phase 5 pretty strongly. That should keep the Pacific basins active and the Atlantic quiet for the time being.

Waters in the GOM have cooled recently due to the stalled front and rains , along and near the coastline. As much as 1-3 Degrees F

It looks like the NHC is changing the cone of uncertainty in their advisories now. Here is the article to explain:

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2024/08/1 ... direction/

We have a wave now in the far Eastern Atlantic that has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

The ATL is waking up! The lead wave in the eastern ATL now has a 50% chance to develop over the next 5 days. A new wave just coming off of Africa has a 20% chance.

Still have at least 10-12 days before tropical effects on the US coast

Slowicane season continues. Reading the NHCs discussion, they’re having a hard time trying to make what’s out there exciting. Probably the first time in a while they could have the cleaning crew monitor things over the Labor Day holiday. Enjoying their extended vacation I’m sure.

Per the NHC, the eastern ATL wave soon to be approaching the Islands is down to 40% and the Gulf wave is still barely holding on at 20%. We could get until the middle of Sept before anything decent occurs at this rate.

The forecasts for a hyper(number of) hurricane season has been flushed down the toilet for 2 or three weeks already. The experts apparently have been in denial and not paid attention to the conditions in the North Atlantic for 2-3weeks. Maybe they’ll learn You need a whole lot more for hurricane development than just above normal water temps

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 12:29 pm The forecasts for a hyper(number of) hurricane season has been flushed down the toilet for 2 or three weeks already. The experts apparently have been in denial and not paid attention to the conditions in the North Atlantic for 2-3weeks. Maybe they’ll learn You need a whole lot more for hurricane development than just above normal water temps



IMG_2159.jpeg

Also, the La Nina was supposed to be a more dominant force and that also hasn't happened. That has been a major factor. Something else I read the other day too, was that the waves over Africa are further north over the Sahara Desert and the wave train is usually further to the south.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:17 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 12:29 pm The forecasts for a hyper(number of) hurricane season has been flushed down the toilet for 2 or three weeks already. The experts apparently have been in denial and not paid attention to the conditions in the North Atlantic for 2-3weeks. Maybe they’ll learn You need a whole lot more for hurricane development than just above normal water temps



IMG_2159.jpeg

Also, the La Nina was supposed to be a more dominant force and that also hasn't happened. That has been a major factor. Something else I read the other day too, was that the waves over Africa are further north over the Sahara Desert and the wave train is usually further to the south.

Great Post Les and if its true about the waves further north this would help our forecast of more storms hitting the east coast than the gulf coast.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:17 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 12:29 pm The forecasts for a hyper(number of) hurricane season has been flushed down the toilet for 2 or three weeks already. The experts apparently have been in denial and not paid attention to the conditions in the North Atlantic for 2-3weeks. Maybe they’ll learn You need a whole lot more for hurricane development than just above normal water temps



IMG_2159.jpeg

Also, the La Nina was supposed to be a more dominant force and that also hasn't happened. That has been a major factor. Something else I read the other day too, was that the waves over Africa are further north over the Sahara Desert and the wave train is usually further to the south.

Great Post Les and if its true about the waves further north this would help our forecast of more storms hitting the east coast than the gulf coast.

It has begun to settle back down to its normal position now, but for a good chunk of the season it was located further north. A lot of rain fell across the Sahara region in July and August.

Gulf Wave has a 10% chance to develop. A 40% chance for the Caribbean wave, A 40% chance also for the wave that just came off of Africa. That is the best looking wave at this time IMO.

----

All 3 waves in the Atlantic have a 10-30% chance to develop so nothing alarming or impressive looking is going on right now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 4:33 am All 3 waves in the Atlantic have a 10-30% chance to develop so nothing alarming or impressive looking is going on right now.

Such a yawner so far in the Cape Verde season e.g. lol.

Good Morning and no doubt the Atlantic Hurricane season has been slow at best to get going. There is some activity out there but nothing that wants to increase enough to produce a tropical storm or hurricane. Starting to see southern Florida heat up and this is normally a sign that the atmosphere is starting to come around and my guess by late next week or so we will start to see the ramping up of storms. Will this be a 2-3 week onslaught or a more extended period of systems. No matter what happens it seems very unlikely that some of the higher numbers the met's have thrown out there will happen. The waters are plenty warm enough but still to much dry air in other layers of the atmosphere. The pacific has done better this year than the previous few years though still below normal but getting closer to normal.The monsoon season in India and southeast Asia has been busy and lasted longer than normal which also could complicate the Atlantic season. So many things tied together around the planet and that is where the puzzle becomes murky at times.

Looks like we can move the date to at least the 21st or beyond before any possible hurricane reaching the US coast

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 4:28 am Looks like we can move the date to at least the 21st or beyond before any possible hurricane reaching the US coast

Check out how low the ACE is compared to normal. It's astonishing!

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Re ... thatlantic

Time and time again, using analogs to form a seasonal forecast are proven to be woefully inefficient. Whether it’s a winter forecast or hurricane. Analogs can be helpful on a short term forecast but long range is a proven joke. The climate just doesn’t work like that, Just my opinion of course but the proof is in the pudding and I hate pudding

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 4:53 am Time and time again, using analogs to form a seasonal forecast are proven to be woefully inefficient. Whether it’s a winter forecast or hurricane. Analogs can be helpful on a short term forecast but long range is a proven joke. The climate just doesn’t work like that, Just my opinion of course but the proof is in the pudding and I hate pudding

I like chocolate pudding! It's not only the analogs that are busting but it seems that ENSO events aren't acting like they used too either, whether it be a Nino or a Nina. Seasonal forecasts no matter what the season IMO used to be more accurate then they are now. It just goes to show that we have so much more to learn. The atmosphere is so fluid and so chaotic. It is cause and effect yes, but I think it's even more complex then that.