Absolute Vorticity

Sunshine and 62/61 here. Lots of schools/daycares here are closing early as well (those not on Spring Break).

Mini derecho across WV blasted through Charleston knocking out the weather cams. Saw a gust to 59 mph at KCRW. 92 mph at KHTS earlier.

Radar is lighting up like a Christmas Tree over SW IN and SC ILL. So as you can see, it doesn't take much sun to get new storms to pop. I do not like what I am seeing folks. We maybe under the gun sooner rather then later. I mean I don't think any model shows severe wx this morning getting all the way into WV but it did. Just goes to show how unstable and violent the set up truly is. Think about it. We go from upper 60s, lower 70s today and won't get out of the 40s tomorrow with wind and light rain showers. Further cooling is expected to change the rain to snow showers Wed night into Thurs morning. I would not even rule out a car topper or a roof duster either to be totally honest with you. This is a true clash of spring and winter which is why we are under the gun at this time.

From NWS LOU:

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Morning squall line has departed central Kentucky, but did leave
behind an outflow boundary from just north of Bowling Green to
Campbellsville to Berea. Cluster of strong to severe convection over
western Tennessee is lifting ENE, so SPC has issued Tornado Watch
75 for south central Kentucky. Will let that replace WW 73 for the
counties where the outflow boundary resides, and drop the remainder
north of there.

Storms developing over southern Illinois will work their way into
southern Indiana by early afternoon and continue eastward from
there. The main limiting factor in our severe threat is the
atmosphere being worked over by the earlier storms. However, there
is enough time for recovery that any storms this afternoon could
become severe with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

Stay weather aware this afternoon!

63 and DP of 60 at cvg

I am very surprised how quickly the new storms are forming west of here. I thought it would take several hours and was looking at 3pm or later but that went out the door. Not sure if this is good or bad news as the quicker return may help in getting the storms to be strong but maybe keep down the tornado threat. Not sure about that but changing quickly and shows me the atmosphere is loaded

Because we have such a strong low / cold front pressing into this humid air mass, it is not taking much sun to get storms to refire. As the low continues to deepen, the radar should only continue to show more storms developing and moving in as the afternoon wears on.

I'd love if this somehow helped keep tornado risk down.

65 IMBY with a dew point of 67

No warnings in Indiana yet, but a couple of those storms are definitely cellular in nature. Things are ramping up quickly.

Based on the look of the radar, I would expect a watch to be issued fairly shortly. We shall see.

Clouding back up here at liberty Center.

we are back under cloud cover again here and temp has cooled again noticeably. Not sure what to think about it....

My latest thoughts...

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:24 am

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:06 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:15 am We are dismissing at noon today to get students home in a timely fashion.

What district?

Georgetown Exempted Village Schools

I saw on WHIO7 where at least 24 or 25 schools on the noon news intro.

Surprisingly Greenville City e.g. hasn't yet reported in. I hope that just because Darke Co. e.g. is in the Enhanced zone that school supts aren't "downplaying" the risk.

https://www.whio.com/weather/school-closings/

MD issued just to our West - A 40% chance of a TOR watch being issued.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0345.html

--

SPC Day 1 Outlook has bee updated with no changes for our hoods at all. Still under a moderate risk. 15% hatched TOR along with 30% wind and hail hatched.

KROB seems less worried.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 12:24 pm--

Whoops disregard. I had dewpoints pulled up not temps LOL

We'll have to give it a few more hours to see if the action to our West / SW will be the saving grace. I know a few of you have said that on here and you maybe right. I'm not letting my guard down yet and this event should still be treated with the utmost respect until we are sure. Until the front passes, we are fair game and the front is still well west of our local area over Central ILL.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 12:31 pm We'll have to give it a few more hours to see if the action to our West / SW will be the saving grace. I know a few of you have said that on here and you maybe right. I'm not letting my guard down yet and this event should still be treated with the utmost respect until we are sure. Until the front passes, we are fair game and the front is still well west of our local area over Central ILL.

Agreed.

I agree we should not let our guard down but I do agree it does seem to lessen the tornado threat and maybe could lead to a more heavy rain and some hail threat. The front itself may just bring the straight line winds. Even though we know the atmosphere is loaded with moisture the one item that we do not have is that sudden rise in dews. I saw that yesterday and even folks out in the southern plains barely made dew points into the mid-upper 60's for just a short time. There is a little surge ahead of the cold front out west and maybe we can get some of that but overall I don't feel the really strong humid air that comes many times with severe weather. Usually when we get that sudden rise in dew points I break out into a sweat but so far so good today and don't use my body temp because my iron levels are always off the charts and one reason it takes me over an hour to give blood as they usually need to unclog the tube and it looks like molasses but O- so they are always wanting me to give.

Absolutely not in the clear at all. But yes I am wondering if our sig tornado threat may not materialize.

Action to our SW now has a t-storm warning out on it for LOU's S IN counties. 1" hail and winds to 60 mph are possible.

Flood Watch is now in effect until 11pm EDT tonight for an additional 1-2" of rain.


...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.

* WHERE...The following counties in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette,
Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne. The
following counties in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll,
Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and
Robertson. The following counties in Ohio, Adams, Auglaize, Brown,
Butler, Champaign, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Darke, Delaware,
Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Hardin, Highland,
Hocking, Licking, Logan, Madison, Mercer, Miami, Montgomery,
Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto, Shelby, Union and Warren.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Another round of showers and storms are expected through this
evening. The potential exists for more heavy rain to fall on
wet or saturated soils. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, with locally higher amounts will be possible.