Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:41 am**

06z GFS shows a colder outlook for sure, but again notice that there is no staying power. Ups and downs, very typical for this time of year. I just really don't see anything sustained happening. Future runs will likely change as models do have a difficult time nailing down a pattern change.

But like Les always says, we just need it cold enough to snow. And that is something I do think is on the table.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:46 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:38 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:27 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:25 am Makes you wonder why it did slow down . You would think with the above normal water temps in the central and east pac it would keep its momentum moving eastward. The last few years we’ve seen it do this but the water temps were much cooler so you’d expect it to lose momentum during those conditions

Exactly.... and until now, models were dead wrong at weakening it and slowing it down. Models have tried time and time again all winter long and the MJO waves continue to be stronger and last longer then modeled. Again, up until now. I'm not sure why either. I wish I knew.
Maybe conditions for tropical development are so good in 6/7 for continued development , it acts like a magnet holding back eastward progression. Northern Australia has been hammered by systems over the last month or so , very unusual for an Elnino. Just a thought

I agree, that has to be the reason. I just got done checking JTWC's webpage after reading your post, and there's quite a bit of TC action out there in those phases.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:47 am**

500mb still needs a lot of work to get anything sustained. Quick hitting troughs hence the ups and downs in temperatures. It's going to be busy as Tim said, so one would think the odds are good that we cash in on one of those dips! But then again this is the Ohio Valley

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 9:08 am**

Looking even further ahead, I notice but do not like

the signal for shots of cooler than normal temps for a good chunk of March. Much like getting a big winter storm, early springs do seem like a thing of the past around here.

My March prediction on my winter outlook of a quicker flip to warmer weather could very well be in jeopardy.

Plenty to get through before that, but just something I've had on my mind as of late.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 9:22 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:18 am

Like I have mentioned many times when you get different ideas of what a forecast be it short term or long term it seems to fall somewhere in the middle by the end of the day.

Very true, Tim. I say that often re: winter storm model solutions windshield-wiping from run to run. But yes, the solution is often in the middle even for long-range forecasting. We have a similar idea of what is going to happen, we just differ primarily on magnitude of the cold.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 9:51 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 9:08 am Looking even further ahead, I notice but do not like the signal for shots of cooler than normal temps for a good chunk of March. Much like getting a big winter storm, early springs do seem like a thing of the past around here.

My March prediction on my winter outlook of a quicker flip to warmer weather could very well be in jeopardy.

Plenty to get through before that, but just something I've had on my mind as of late.

Been noticing that too. Euro Weeklies FWIW, keep the trough in place thru mid March then it's on to spring.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:18 am**

Looks like the trend for Monday and snow is the low needs to get into the 990s along with that perfect track(GFS) .

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:26 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:18 am Looks like the trend for Monday and snow is the low needs to get into the 990s along with that perfect track(GFS) .

Yes... We need the phasing as Trev mentioned so more cold air can get pulled in aloft to flip the rain over to snow. Classic phasing / dynamic cooling set up that we need some help with lol

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:35 am**

12Z ICON is going all in and looking more 6Z GFS like. The ICON is a little too far NW actually on this run but the point is... a big jump NW from previous runs.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 11:02 am**

12Z GFS is looking to come in a little more stronger then the 6Z run.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 11:36 am**

12Z CMC also way NW... too much so as the snow band is well NW of our local area. I would expect to see a correct back south in time. I'm actually glad to see the models come more NW to be honest.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 12:13 pm**

12Z GEFS also came more NW... nice track from the Ensemble Mean too.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 1:43 pm**

I have not seen precip maps yet, but at 500 MB, the 12Z Euro looks good for early next week. It has a 999 MB low over to the KY / TN border at 120 hours (Monday morning).

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 2:24 pm**

That's a nice track on the Euro... can finally see precip maps and we get hit with the deformation zone on Monday. Nice! Hopefully, we see this look hold for a few more days. Maybe I will get a chance to start a thread should this look hold of course.

I have not started one yet for a storm this winter season.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 2:59 pm**

Seen a couple GFS runs now where it could get really interesting around the 18th with an Arctic surge and the STJ bringing up a storm from the western GOM?

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 3:10 pm**

Finally got my trucks back from getting the plows swapped over. Immediately put the plow in storage. Maybe that will help with the snow next week.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 3:59 pm**

The 12z Euro and GFS really illustrate my thoughts well. Quick shots of cold in an overall rollercoaster temperature regime of below, normal, and above. I just don’t see the proper blocking working out that would lead to anything sustained.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 4:35 pm**

Trev... it does not need to be sustained to get snow, although it obviously would help. It is thread the needle all the way in this set up. If we get something, it'll be gone within a couple of days.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 4:36 pm**

As always with snow systems around here, it is all about the timing. We need a well timed phase to get a strengthening surface low to pass SE of us thru SE KY and into WVA for the best track.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 4:39 pm**

12Z EPS is SE of the OP Euro but still good enough for the southern and SE counties of our forecast area. There are still a fair amount of clusters of SLP placement from the members suggesting a further NW track is possible.

eps_lowlocs_us_21.png

eps_lowlocs_us_22.png

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 5:20 pm**

18Z GFS is now too far NW.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:42 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 4:35 pm Trev... it does not need to be sustained to get snow, although it obviously would help. It is thread the needle all the way in this set up. If we get something, it'll be gone within a couple of days.

Correct. Just posting evidence to support why I disagree with some other forecasts I have seen.

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:43 pm**

IMG_1387.jpeg

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:55 pm**

Sad. I think I have a cooler in my barn that might hold the Great Lakes ice totals

IMG_1388.jpeg

Posted: **Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:08 pm**

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:42 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 4:35 pm Trev... it does not need to be sustained to get snow, although it obviously would help. It is thread the needle all the way in this set up. If we get something, it'll be gone within a couple of days.
Correct. Just posting evidence to support why I disagree with some other forecasts I have seen.

All good man. I am only focusing on the set up for the Sun night and Monday potential system in the contexts of our posts.

Absolute Vorticity

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