Absolute Vorticity

So far at Hour 15... it is a bit further south with the low in KY which is a good sign, versus the 6Z run.

I think this run is an improvement, which is good. Snow shield is a bit further south thanks to a further S low track.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:00 am I think this run is an improvement, which is good. Snow shield is a bit further south thanks to a further S low track.

There you go Les, hopefully the dry slot area keeps filling in for cvgland

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:03 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:00 am I think this run is an improvement, which is good. Snow shield is a bit further south thanks to a further S low track.

There you go Les, hopefully the dry slot area keeps filling in for cvgland

I am liking the trends so far this morning on the models that were screwing us over that is for sure. Could you (or anyone for that matter) post a precip total map from Pivotal Weather? Thanks!

12Z NAM

I really like the trends! Feel good about 2-3 inches of snow now!

Oh wow... thanks Jamie! That is looking better then I thought it would.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:13 am I really like the trends! Feel good about 2-3 inches of snow now!

I want to see more data and do a little more nowcasting but my mood is slowly improving here lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:16 am

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:13 am I really like the trends! Feel good about 2-3 inches of snow now!

I want to see more data and do a little more nowcasting but my mood is slowly improving here lol

I definitely want to see more but i feel better than I did last night lol! I was going with the dusting to an inch.

12Z NAM 3km which even looks better for the area.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:16 am

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:13 am I really like the trends! Feel good about 2-3 inches of snow now!

I want to see more data and do a little more nowcasting but my mood is slowly improving here lol

I definitely want to see more but i feel better than I did last night lol! I was going with the dusting to an inch.

That's my call to for CVG Land an inch or less. But anyway, I agree with you. I am feeling better. Let's see if things continue to trend favorably as the day wears on.

Closer look at NAM qpf distribution. Basically shifted the screw zone more into SEindiana.

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:21 am 12Z NAM 3km which even looks better for the area.

Yes! I just looked at it myself and I think it has better deform or backside snow for the area versus the regular NAM. Could you check the Nested NAM too please? I think it is on the College of DuPage site.

EDIT: I believe this is the link. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Nam is in the range of other models now

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:24 am

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:21 am 12Z NAM 3km which even looks better for the area.

Yes! I just looked at it myself and I think it has better deform or backside snow for the area versus the regular NAM. Could you check the Nested NAM too please? I think it is on the College of DuPage site.

EDIT: I believe this is the link. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

What would it be on Pivotal? Lol

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:24 am

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:21 am 12Z NAM 3km which even looks better for the area.

Yes! I just looked at it myself and I think it has better deform or backside snow for the area versus the regular NAM. Could you check the Nested NAM too please? I think it is on the College of DuPage site.

EDIT: I believe this is the link. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

What would it be on Pivotal? Lol

I don't think so if my memory serves me right. I cannot see everything when I am on the customer side which is why I keep asking LOL When I take my lunch in a bit, I'll be back on my company's side so I'll be able to see what I want then. All good Bro! I appreciate the posts! When I was working from home, it wasn't an issue but now that I have to be back in the office, it cramps my posting style, you know?

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:36 am

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:24 am

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:21 am 12Z NAM 3km which even looks better for the area.

Yes! I just looked at it myself and I think it has better deform or backside snow for the area versus the regular NAM. Could you check the Nested NAM too please? I think it is on the College of DuPage site.

EDIT: I believe this is the link. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

What would it be on Pivotal? Lol

I don't think so if my memory serves me right. I cannot see everything when I am on the customer side which is why I keep asking LOL When I take my lunch in a bit, I'll be back on my company's side so I'll be able to see what I want then. All good Bro! I appreciate the posts! When I was working from home, it wasn't an issue but now that I have to be back in the office, it cramps my posting style, you know?

Understand, I am only posting more because finally learned Pivotal lol.

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:38 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:36 am

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:24 am

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:21 am 12Z NAM 3km which even looks better for the area.

Yes! I just looked at it myself and I think it has better deform or backside snow for the area versus the regular NAM. Could you check the Nested NAM too please? I think it is on the College of DuPage site.

EDIT: I believe this is the link. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

What would it be on Pivotal? Lol

I don't think so if my memory serves me right. I cannot see everything when I am on the customer side which is why I keep asking LOL When I take my lunch in a bit, I'll be back on my company's side so I'll be able to see what I want then. All good Bro! I appreciate the posts! When I was working from home, it wasn't an issue but now that I have to be back in the office, it cramps my posting style, you know?

Understand, I am only posting more because finally learned Pivotal lol.

Yeah... it takes a while to learn how some of these sites work, but once you get the processes down... it makes posting more fun.

I'll be able to do a better job nowcasting on my lunch break, but from what I can tell right now... the northern low is faster which we have seen on the modeling so far today. Wondering if that may translate to some partial phasing? I'm also noticing some moisture return from the Gulf as well feeding into the S wave. This is happening a bit earlier then modeling suggested yesterday. You can see it on radar as well as looking at the 925-850 MB moisture transport on the SPC Meso Page.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:50 am I'll be able to do a better job nowcasting on my lunch break, but from what I can tell right now... the northern low is faster which we have seen on the modeling so far today. Wondering if that may translate to some partial phasing? I'm also noticing some moisture return from the Gulf as well feeding into the S wave. This is happening a bit earlier then modeling suggested yesterday. You can see it on radar as well as looking at the 925-850 MB moisture transport on the SPC Meso Page.

If earlier, does that mean the start time and end time will be earlier?

Thanks!

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:53 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:50 am I'll be able to do a better job nowcasting on my lunch break, but from what I can tell right now... the northern low is faster which we have seen on the modeling so far today. Wondering if that may translate to some partial phasing? I'm also noticing some moisture return from the Gulf as well feeding into the S wave. This is happening a bit earlier then modeling suggested yesterday. You can see it on radar as well as looking at the 925-850 MB moisture transport on the SPC Meso Page.

If earlier, does that mean the start time and end time will be earlier?

Thanks!

I'm wondering that myself Casie. It's a bit early for me to be able to answer that question. However, it is something to watch as we see things evolve. I think by this evening we should have a much better idea on timing.

Wow! I checked the Nested NAM on COD, and it's going all in! You can see the two areas of snow coming together on top of us! Then due to the surface low track, we get the better deform snows on the backside too. The model tapers things down to more of a snow shower deal by late morning into the early afternoon on Fri. The lake effect kicks in for Central Ohio on Saturday with a nice streamer coming off of Lake Michigan. As with the regular NAM, the screw zone was shifted more into SE IN, but everywhere else, 2-4" of snow falls for the event total.

12Z short range Canadian

12Z ICON

So here's the moisture transport that I spoke of earlier.


Some really nice EPV too associated with the main wave out in the Plains.