Absolute Vorticity

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:13 pm The UKMET is back to showing a little snow for us. The models sure are having a hard time figuring out these waves of energy. Expect more changes in the coming model runs. This is a 24 hr snowfall map from about midday Monday to midday Tuesday at a 10:1 ratio. You would think with higher ratios this could be a 2-4 inch snowfall?

If the UKIE is right yes. 2" NW to 4" SE. Like I posted before the CMC is trying to drop a couple of inches also. But those are the only models to my knowledge that are doing so. 12Z GEFS is trying to drop 1-2" S of the River.

The UKIE is showing an inch and a half from Dayton to Cincinnati. With higher ratios, not exactly sure what they would be, but at 20:1 that should be a 3 inch snowfall. And that was just a 24 hr period of snow. All conjecture at this point, but it's good to see a couple of the models depict this second wave idea.

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:57 pm The UKIE is showing an inch and a half from Dayton to Cincinnati. With higher ratios, not exactly sure what they would be, but at 20:1 that should be a 3 inch snowfall. And that was just a 24 hr period of snow. All conjecture at this point, but it's good to see a couple of the models depict this second wave idea.

We do have a couple of models Doug, you're right. Just wish we'd get the GFS and especially the Euro on the board. Speaking of the Euro, it is still a no go. Weak, flat, suppressed and it actually has two weak lows along the front by Tues morning. One low off the SC Coast and another in the Gulf. The models are sure struggling with this system or lack thereof.

Actually, 12z Euro gives CVG 0.05" of QPF Mon night so with ratios maybe an inch of snow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:24 pm Actually, 12z Euro gives CVG 0.05" of QPF Mon night so with ratios maybe an inch of snow.

The Euro is really close to putting more moisture down in the Ohio Valley. It's trying but won't pull the trigger. It's a step in the right direction. Still 3 days away. The trends today have been in the right direction. Who knows?

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:24 pm Actually, 12z Euro gives CVG 0.05" of QPF Mon night so with ratios maybe an inch of snow.

The Euro is really close to putting more moisture down in the Ohio Valley. It's trying but won't pull the trigger. It's a step in the right direction. Still 3 days away. The trends today have been in the right direction. Who knows?

We'll see what the 18Z runs bring I guess.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:44 pm

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:24 pm Actually, 12z Euro gives CVG 0.05" of QPF Mon night so with ratios maybe an inch of snow.

The Euro is really close to putting more moisture down in the Ohio Valley. It's trying but won't pull the trigger. It's a step in the right direction. Still 3 days away. The trends today have been in the right direction. Who knows?

We'll see what the 18Z runs bring I guess.

18z Nam is a trend in the right direction.

NAM coming in with right around a tenth for counties along the river, gradually tapering to .05” as you reach the 1-70 crew

It's a shame we couldn't get a phase or the main piece... the trough couldn't sharp up about 6-12 hours faster. It would have been a hum dinger of a snow storm for us! Hopefully we can manage and inch or two out of the deal to whiten things up!

Swing and a miss from the 18Z RGEM.

18Z GFS is stronger with Wave 1 vs Wave 2. Swing and a miss with wave 1 unfortunately and S of the river gets skimmed with Wave 2 early Tues. 0.03" only at CVG.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:31 pm It's a shame we couldn't get a phase or the main piece... the trough couldn't sharp up about 6-12 hours faster. It would have been a hum dinger of a snow storm for us! Hopefully we can manage and inch or two out of the deal to whiten things up!

Swing and a miss from the 18Z RGEM.

Can we call it a foul ball? It's almost a hit.

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 5:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:31 pm It's a shame we couldn't get a phase or the main piece... the trough couldn't sharp up about 6-12 hours faster. It would have been a hum dinger of a snow storm for us! Hopefully we can manage and inch or two out of the deal to whiten things up!

Swing and a miss from the 18Z RGEM.

Can we call it a foul ball? It's almost a hit.

00z NAM is an improvement….

I would be real happy with the Nam outcome

Gfs stays south and fizzles out.. hmmmm

Same with the Canadian.

That’s pretty much how it’s going. The models are alternating between which one brings the shield far enough north to give us a little snow. Those aren’t good odds, and that’s why I lowered PoPs in my forecast. Is it possible that things shift north? Sure. But it’s bad practice to base a forecast on something with as low a probability of happening such as this. It’s best to utilize the scientific method as much as possible when forecasting.

Shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone here if you pay attention to the EPS/EU . It’s been awesome with its progression early on of being a light event or a miss south with the other usual model noise makers catching on late

Agreed with the above posts. The only models on our side with light accumulations in the 2" or less range are the NAM, RAP, ICON, and UKIE. GFS, CMC, Euro, EPS are all a swing and a miss. The best chance in my mind to break out the shovels will be S of I-64 in KY and into the TN Valley. Should be a nice storm for those folks. Winter storm watches have already been issued for portions of AR, N MS, N AL and Western / Middle TN. I won't rule out a dusting to 1/2" for us but that is probably going to be the extent of it around here at this point.

Bummer… in the mood for a good one.

Love that we are finally cold though so that is noice!

MattD41 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 8:25 am Bummer… in the mood for a good one.

Love that we are finally cold though so that is noice!

Things just aren't set up right Matt for a big one. We've got the cold now but it's too much of a good thing since it's suppressing the deeper moisture to the south. We will probably start up a thread this weekend at some point for the Thurs / Fri of next week system. The cold relaxes by then and a storm fires up on the leading edge of the next arctic blast. Hopefully we can do a little better with that set up.

At least enjoying the snow showers and dusting we are getting right now!

I saw the 12Z NAM and 12Z RGEM runs. I think the best shot we have is with the second wave Mon night into early Tues.

A swing and a miss from the 12Z OP GFS. Most of the GEFS members agree.