Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:11 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:55 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:53 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:49 am That looks good to me Trev. Can't really argue with it at all. I do think that there will be a weenie band of 4" or more but that can be put on the map later should more QPF get involved.

I like it Trev, have to watch qpf trends

Yes and that is another reason I kept amounts lower than what most recent guidance is showing. As we all know, QPF has tended to decrease as an event draws nearer for months now.

This is very true but since this is an STJ disturbance, one would think that should buck the trend. We shall soon find out. Speed of the system works against very heavy QPF.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:11 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:55 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:53 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:49 am That looks good to me Trev. Can't really argue with it at all. I do think that there will be a weenie band of 4" or more but that can be put on the map later should more QPF get involved.

I like it Trev, have to watch qpf trends

Yes and that is another reason I kept amounts lower than what most recent guidance is showing. As we all know, QPF has tended to decrease as an event draws nearer for months now.

This is very true but since this is an STJ disturbance, one would think that should buck the trend. We shall soon find out. Speed of the system works against very heavy QPF.

Because we are dealing with an energy transfer, one thing to watch would be a possible slowing trend on the models.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:44 am Mixed feelings about the NBM, you have input from some models that struggle at this range

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:02 am The ceiling really is very high for my bomb. That is going to be one hell of a storm in terms of size, strength, and impact. Honestly could be a kitchen sink situation for us, Les. Some wintry, wet, and windy. That's going to be a fun one to watch...

dce wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:36 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:02 am The ceiling really is very high for my bomb. That is going to be one hell of a storm in terms of size, strength, and impact. Honestly could be a kitchen sink situation for us, Les. Some wintry, wet, and windy. That's going to be a fun one to watch...

I would think that with the historically warm lake water the aftermath of this storm will produce massive lake effect snows. Winds will be whipping across the lakes.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:59 am Just wanted to comment on the mjo. Heading towards phase 3 but some models have it in phase 4 which is no good for the most part if you like winter weather. I have been mentioning that the mjo will head back into the COD over the next week or so and still believe that to be true. So when looking at noaa and the long term forecasts you can see the model is having problems on whether it does go to the cod or heads towards phase 4. I believe once that is resolved then we see much of the USA with below normal temps if cod is the correct call or if it gets into phase 4 the coldest areas will be in the western states.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:16 pm Wow, I just went past my lunch hour finally reading about the La Bomba: Jan 8-11, 2024, the 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024 and also the month of Jan. Been so busy the past several days! Looks like were good for a couple inches of wet snow and some rain this weekend followed be a more impressive storm early next week with everything on the table with that one! I also like what I saw on last night's GFS run for what's coming after that???? I'll just leave it there for now as it looks like we'll be wearing our seat belts for a while!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:17 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:16 pm Wow, I just went past my lunch hour finally reading about the La Bomba: Jan 8-11, 2024, the 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024 and also the month of Jan. Been so busy the past several days! Looks like were good for a couple inches of wet snow and some rain this weekend followed be a more impressive storm early next week with everything on the table with that one! I also like what I saw on last night's GFS run for what's coming after that???? I'll just leave it there for now as it looks like we'll be wearing our seat belts for a while!

Yes Sir... they may not be all snow makers but we will be busy regardless!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:31 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:17 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:16 pm Wow, I just went past my lunch hour finally reading about the La Bomba: Jan 8-11, 2024, the 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024 and also the month of Jan. Been so busy the past several days! Looks like were good for a couple inches of wet snow and some rain this weekend followed be a more impressive storm early next week with everything on the table with that one! I also like what I saw on last night's GFS run for what's coming after that???? I'll just leave it there for now as it looks like we'll be wearing our seat belts for a while!

Yes Sir... they may not be all snow makers but we will be busy regardless!

Exactly Les, a very stormy pattern coming. I hope once the La Bomba passes that the cold can settle in for a while with the active STJ.