Absolute Vorticity

12z Euro is slower and offers up a new solution. The primary low remains weaker as it heads into MI. Then another surface low pops to our south and rapidly deepens as it move northeast. Monster storm as it deepens as it pulls away from us and heads into the Northeast. Slightly earlier phase and this would bury us in snow. Interesting run!

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 1:57 pm 12z Euro is slower and offers up a new solution. The primary low remains weaker as it heads into MI. Then another surface low pops to our south and rapidly deepens as it move northeast. Monster storm as it deepens as it pulls away from us and heads into the Northeast. Slightly earlier phase and this would bury us in snow. Interesting run!

Trev,the Euro keeps going back and forth on the speed though all 3 main models are slower today. No doubt the models are showing a strong system and at this point a decent rain followed by snow flurries/showers and much colder Sunday with very strong winds. Somebody in the mid-west looks to get hit rather hard and to early to pinpoint but nice to see something to follow later this week.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 2:12 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 1:57 pm 12z Euro is slower and offers up a new solution. The primary low remains weaker as it heads into MI. Then another surface low pops to our south and rapidly deepens as it move northeast. Monster storm as it deepens as it pulls away from us and heads into the Northeast. Slightly earlier phase and this would bury us in snow. Interesting run!

Trev,the Euro keeps going back and forth on the speed though all 3 main models are slower today. No doubt the models are showing a strong system and at this point a decent rain followed by snow flurries/showers and much colder Sunday with very strong winds. Somebody in the mid-west looks to get hit rather hard and to early to pinpoint but nice to see something to follow later this week.

Correct, the Euro has been the least consistent. I weighted my forecast update on my page today heavily on the GFS.

If the trough goes negative tilt this will be a slower moving storm and that secondary low idea would make sense.

Seems to me the system later this week wants to dig further south in the southern plains. Interesting and of course need a few more days to watch this unfold. Again we are getting another spoke of arctic air like we have seen this fall and they can provide some quick cold air but rather narrow. If this storm continues to get stronger with the models then it will bring in some colder air but will it get here before the precip shuts off. The most exciting thing since last year before Christmas lol

Definitely Tim! Sad but true lol

Holy cow!!! Just had a big lightning bolt and thunder while I'm outside grilling l!!

Wow! It just happened again!!!

Major hail too covering the ground wow!!!!

What month is this??? I've never seen hail covering the ground in December before. Storm of the year for me. To hell with this weekend lol

I thought it was just raining really hard. I was shocked to see everything covered with hail pellets!

What the hail?

Thunder and everything!

I'm no wuss! I grill in all kinds of weather! Mark's deck pic was the same thing that I saw IMBY.

Les, I was driving on camp Ernest when that hail hit Wow!! That got scary real quick with the hills on camp Ernest.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:55 pm Les, I was driving on camp Ernest when that hail hit Wow!! That got scary real quick with the hills on camp Ernest.

I bet Pete! Storm of the year since Christmas 2022 for our hoods! Incredible!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:58 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:55 pm Les, I was driving on camp Ernest when that hail hit Wow!! That got scary real quick with the hills on camp Ernest.

I bet Pete! Storm of the year since Christmas 2022 for our hoods! Incredible!

That was really incredible !!!

I have a 17 second video from MBY on my phone but the file format is invalid so I can't put it on the forum. I hate technology sometimes.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:27 pm What month is this??? I've never seen hail covering the ground in December before. Storm of the year for me. To hell with this weekend lol

Lol, Les we talked about this last week where there was a stronger clipper like system that was due in here sometime between the 5th-7th. This was a true thunderstorm with lightning,thunder,hail and rain. No wind though at my house.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 6:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:27 pm What month is this??? I've never seen hail covering the ground in December before. Storm of the year for me. To hell with this weekend lol

Lol, Les we talked about this last week where there was a stronger clipper like system that was due in here sometime between the 5th-7th. This was a true thunderstorm with lightning,thunder,hail and rain. No wind though at my house.

I just sent the video to you and Trev on your phones. Check it out!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 6:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 6:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:27 pm What month is this??? I've never seen hail covering the ground in December before. Storm of the year for me. To hell with this weekend lol

Lol, Les we talked about this last week where there was a stronger clipper like system that was due in here sometime between the 5th-7th. This was a true thunderstorm with lightning,thunder,hail and rain. No wind though at my house.

I just sent the video to you and Trev on your phones. Check it out!

Les that is exactly what it sounded like at my house. I saw the radar ramp up northwest of us after 430pm or so and thought maybe a brief period of heavy rain but was not expecting the light and sound show along with hail

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 6:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 6:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 6:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:27 pm What month is this??? I've never seen hail covering the ground in December before. Storm of the year for me. To hell with this weekend lol

Lol, Les we talked about this last week where there was a stronger clipper like system that was due in here sometime between the 5th-7th. This was a true thunderstorm with lightning,thunder,hail and rain. No wind though at my house.

I just sent the video to you and Trev on your phones. Check it out!

Les that is exactly what it sounded like at my house. I saw the radar ramp up northwest of us after 430pm or so and thought maybe a brief period of heavy rain but was not expecting the light and sound show along with hail

It caught me by surprise since I was outside and not monitoring the weather as closely as I usually do.

SPC Meso Page - Freezing level is Extremely Low! WOW!

About what size were the hailstones? The guys and gals at ILN would probably be interested, too.

Got to 44 at CVG, DAY 41 and CMH 40 today.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:05 pm About what size were the hailstones? The guys and gals at ILN would probably be interested, too.

Pea sized, not very big just a lot of 'em!

Good morning all! The biggest take away that I saw from the overnight runs was that the GFS is progressive. The CMC and Euro still show the more phased, slower solution with a secondary low popping along / just East of the Apps that could give us a period of snow Sun night into Mon morning before ending. That is something to watch for snow lovers should the idea hold. Otherwise, expect rain, wind, and maybe even a few t-storms depending on the track and strength of the first low. We may see a weaker primary low into the Lakes and that makes sense with the secondary low idea. If we see a stronger primary low then the secondary low idea may not occur or if it does, it'll be too late for us. A lot of changes still to come from the modeling.