Absolute Vorticity

Down to 57 at CVG with N winds gusting to 30 mph. We will stay in the 50s for daytime highs today then drop into the 40s tonight. Then, our usual highs in the 50s lows in the 30s regime kicks in which is normal for November. We will warm back up into the 60s by Tues or Wed of next week ahead of the deep Western US trough. The pattern post 11/20 still looks to be active with rain makers. The cold air still looks to largely remain to our North and especially West at this time. Still watching the potential near or just after Thanksgiving for a colder shot of air but that is still in model fantasy range at this time.

Was 72 here at midnight - dipped down to 53 now. Missed out on the rain which was scattered to being with.

Good Morning and I see we made it to 79 yesterday. I thought 77 would be the high and missed that one. Was windy at times and starting to see the oak leaves coming down. Les your forecast looks great and not much to add and hopefully we do and should become more active the closer we get to Thanksgiving.

Good morning Mike and Tim. I also missed out on any rainfall associated with the front. CVG has dropped to 54 now as of the 8am reading. I continue to see a more active pattern around or just after 11/20 as I posted this morning. Hopefully, this comes to fruition and we can get out of the drought around here. Down to our south and also to our NW, locations are in much worse shape then we are. The drought map updated this morning and you can click on this link to check it out for yourselves.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Hopefully folks across the SE US can get in on some much needed rainfall! Since the Gulf has been closed for business all summer long and into the fall, combined with the fact that we have not much tropical activity either, this is why the SE US are in a pretty bad drought to begin with. La Nina like for sure, definitely not a result of an El Nino. But again near or after 11/20 hopefully this changes as systems begin to traverse the country from the Pacific out of the Western US trough.

Where’s Waldo, I mean where’s the cold

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 8:42 amIMG_0811.jpeg

That map is a good starting point that is for sure. I watch James Spann's weather updates from time to time (From Alabama) and it certainly looks like some help is coming to those folks for sure. Good to see!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 8:46 am Where’s Waldo, I mean where’s the cold

Dynamic cooling to the rescue! Definitely odd though seeing that much real estate covered by well above avg temps. The snow and ice cover maps look decent showing 3/4's of Canada now with snow cover, all of AK and Siberia too. Per Rutgers snow lab, the only area that is well below avg in snow cover that truly sticks out is Western Russia. I suppose since most of our oceans are warm that is probably a good reason why the map looks like it does. In fact, I have been seeing on X (formally twitter) where Japan has broken all time records for November getting up into the mid 80s! The SST's around Japan are still on fire!

Had .15 rain here
Currently 55

Temps are trying to recover a little bit and we may rise back up to 60 or so for the daytime high. This is due to increasing amounts of sunshine in the drier air behind the front.

Here's my winter outlook...

Wow Trev! Looks awesome man! You are really sticking your neck out there too. It looks like we are on the exact same page. We are both going with a mild December then things get better in January and February. That is pretty darn exciting if we lose December, yet still can get to above avg snow levels as your Outlook indicates. Great job my man!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 11:56 am Wow Trev! Looks awesome man! You are really sticking your neck out there too. It looks like we are on the exact same page. We are both going with a mild December then things get better in January and February. That is pretty darn exciting if we lose December, yet still can get to above avg snow levels as your Outlook indicates. Great job my man!

Thank you sir! As always long-range forecasting is an inexact science, but I feel comfortable and confident with what I put together. We shall see what she does!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 11:56 am Wow Trev! Looks awesome man! You are really sticking your neck out there too. It looks like we are on the exact same page. We are both going with a mild December then things get better in January and February. That is pretty darn exciting if we lose December, yet still can get to above avg snow levels as your Outlook indicates. Great job my man!

A fun-filled winter indeed. Sign me up!

I agree Doug! It won't be long until this boring weather pattern is over! Another 10 days or whatever then we should have storm systems to track instead of days and days of zzzzzz.

BG's Snowtalk! blog from earlier:

Looks like I’ll be eating home grown lettuce not only for thanksgiving but for Christmas and NYs

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 12:49 pm Looks like I’ll be eating home grown lettuce not only for thanksgiving but for Christmas and NYs

I'm wondering the same about my spinach crop that is normally not ready until Spring!

Trevor, what a wonderful forecast. I agree with probably 90 p/c which is more than I agree with my forecast lol. A couple things and one is an ICE STORM. Yes we really do not see true ice storms that just shut a place for a few days. The set up this winter with system more than likely happening every 3-5 days on a constant basis and getting a nice little snow in the 2-4 inch range followed by some decent cold where temps get near 0. Then you have another storm that has plenty of warm moist air but in mid-winter cold and snow usually rule the roost so the warm air decides to sneak upstairs and that is how you get a big Ice Storm. I agree about Dec having some severe weather though I am lower on the overall temps but the Jan-Mar our forecast are very similar. We know snow totals are almost impossible to forecast and one large storm that hits CVG or hits Indy instead can bust but the overall theme is more important.

12Z Euro is starting to show some signs of life, rain wise, late next week into next weekend. Maybe some T-storm action too (depending on low track) which would tie into Trev's December call quite nicely.

I hit 60 today and it's not too bad outside. Got the grill going doing some baked potatoes. Ribeyes after that! Cold beer and sunshine. The wind isn't as bad as it was earlier either.

61 for the daytime high at CVG today.

Good morning all! That wave of low pressure has spread rain into our southern counties south of the Metro area. Anyone SE of I-71 seeing any light rain this morning? Looks like down in Mason and Robertson co's some rain has been occurring. Dry IMBY and at CVG. Clouds will clear out (NW to SE) later today and we should still hit 60 degrees. Probably staying in the 50s though in our SE.

Frosty mornings and sunny, cool afternoons can be expected this weekend as we warm up next week back into the 60s. Rain returns to the forecast along with a stormier pattern which looks to begin around the 20th or so. We may see a decent storm system with rain and t-storms around the Thanksgiving travel period. Timing and storm evolution are unknown this far out but the more active pattern continues to gain momentum.

Good Morning and yes we are starting to see changes in the weather and one that will no doubt become more active. The week of Thanksgiving imo is starting to look very stormy for many in the mainland USA and those changes are already starting to show up in Alaska over the next week. A few big storms coming into Alaska and this will bring heavy snows and blizzard conditions to parts of the state. The bigger item though is ridging will try and take over after these storms and this should buckle the jet in the eastern half of the mainland USA sometime during the Thanksgiving week. This along with the STJ starting to act up some should no doubt bring a much stormier pattern. My guess is severe weather will no doubt be part of this pattern and also some winter action as well. Does that mean winter weather here and again to far away as we know but some decent cold should be included.

The posts will become more often as we get into the winter season. Where is the cold in the northern hemisphere and no doubt it has been a warm fall season especially the further north you are and this is compared to normal. Greenland and parts of northern Europe seems to be the coldest. This could really come into play for the winter and maybe blocking will happen more often in those places. A Greenland block usually helps us out in terms of cold air and over Northern Europe the coldest of the cold is usually on the east coast but we would still see some decent cold weather. Of course we need more items to fall in place and getting snow cover over the northern and central plains and upper mid-west would help out. Patterns usually form in late Nov and early Dec and lets see out that plays out. I am still going colder than most for Dec though I expect temps to be normal or maybe slightly above.