El Nino, The 2023-2024 Winter, and You!

[Bgoney]

I agree Tim! Just about every winter we have a lot of up's and down's in our region. It's just the way the weather works around here. Always has, always will. In other news... The TN Valley and SE US are in a very severe drought right now with numerous wildfires ongoing. Rain is desperately needed in those areas and right now, the future isn't looking so good. Hope to see that change in the next couple of weeks as we've been discussing on here. With an El Nino they should be getting wet but we are still seeing a Nina like pattern at this time.

We may have to wait till January to see the effects of a Nino, we had this past Nina for a long time (3 years). Last time I believe was in the early 70's and transitioned into a Nino by the mid to late 70's and we saw what happened then! So, if this Nino takes hold again next winter it's effects should take hold more. Of course, the mid to late 70's had other factors going on that helped with our block buster winters!

Agreed Joe. That is why I said a mild December then colder for Jan and Feb.

Les, I still remember the strong Nino's from the 1982-83 and 1991-92 winters that were just awful. Hoping for a least a moderate Nino that is west based and with other helpful factors that were mentioned on this thread. I'm so ready for a decent winter for once!

What's interesting also Joe is that despite the SST's pointing to an East Based El Nino, the forcing continues to be West of the dateline.


ForcingWWB.gif

Agree with most thoughts above, and the big Culprits for the forcing and nonexistent El Niño conditions , as previously mentioned , continue to be the IOD and PDO

[tron777]

Agree with most thoughts above, and the big Culprits for the forcing and nonexistent El Niño conditions , as previously mentioned , continue to be the IOD and PDO

As we've said, it looks to come down to high latitude blocking. Do we get that help during the winter months or not. If yes, fun to be had by all. If not, same ole same ole as the last several winters.

[tpweather]

Agree with most thoughts above, and the big Culprits for the forcing and nonexistent El Niño conditions , as previously mentioned , continue to be the IOD and PDO

As we've said, it looks to come down to high latitude blocking. Do we get that help during the winter months or not. If yes, fun to be had by all. If not, same ole same ole as the last several winters.

Les you make the best point about the upcoming winter and really all winters and that is high latitude blocking in the correct place. If that happens then the winter will be busy with several chances for snow.

[tron777]

Agree with most thoughts above, and the big Culprits for the forcing and nonexistent El Niño conditions , as previously mentioned , continue to be the IOD and PDO

As we've said, it looks to come down to high latitude blocking. Do we get that help during the winter months or not. If yes, fun to be had by all. If not, same ole same ole as the last several winters.

Les you make the best point about the upcoming winter and really all winters and that is high latitude blocking in the correct place. If that happens then the winter will be busy with several chances for snow.

Thanks Tim! The blocking is going to be a huge deal because of the El Nino and the La Nina background state that it is trying to function in. We absolutely will need the blocking to keep the cold air in place. Otherwise you will see the standard warm up and get rain, then we get cold behind the front after most of the precip has ended. Wash, rinse, and repeat. For snow lovers you don't want that. We've seen enough of that over the last several winters largely because the blocking has not been there in the winter months. It seems to be there for 3/4's of the year accept when we need it. Hopefully that changes this winter. We cannot predict the blocking more then 2 weeks out with much accuracy though.

[tpweather]

Exactly Les and another great point about very little blocking in the winter and another reason folks around the poles have been getting heavier snowfall for them. The arctic regions around the poles get very little snow normally but in recent years heavier snows have been getting further and further north and with more water vapor in the air they have been milder in the winter as well. Hopefully that changes this winter

[tron777]

Exactly Les and another great point about very little blocking in the winter and another reason folks around the poles have been getting heavier snowfall for them. The arctic regions around the poles get very little snow normally but in recent years heavier snows have been getting further and further north and with more water vapor in the air they have been milder in the winter as well. Hopefully that changes this winter

Alaska continues to do well in the snow dept. with a series of systems coming in from the Bering Sea. Looks like an unsettled pattern for them per NWS Fairbanks. That spells a +EPO for sure and one reason why we are so mild and will continue to be for a while longer.

[tron777]

Using the MEI, here is a really good comparison to see where the current El Nino stacks up with other Super, Strong, Moderate, and Weak El Nino's.

Nov-9-MEI-1.png

Nov-9-MEI-2.png

Nov-9-MEI-3.png

Nov-9-MEI-4.png

[Bgoney]

Thanks for the maps Les, and this proves my long standing thought that the BOM boys and girls were completely full of crap with their forecast of doom and gloom Elnino going back to spring. The conditions in spring and summer were glaringly obvious to me that there was no way we would see a super Nino. The lack of persistent WWBs needed were nonexistent. My question is why the BOM kept up with the scam and hype so long. Are they that blindly biased or that corrupt?

[tron777]

Thanks for the maps Les, and this proves my long standing thought that the BOM boys and girls were completely full of crap with their forecast of doom and gloom Elnino going back to spring. The conditions in spring and summer were glaringly obvious to me that there was no way we would see a super Nino. The lack of persistent WWBs needed were nonexistent. My question is why the BOM kept up with the scam and hype so long. Are they that blindly biased or that corrupt?

Not sure but the modeling was terrible. The BOM model was the absolute worst followed by the Euro. Our US model, the CFS, for once, had the Nino much lower and I think, has done a decent job. I was going for a moderate to low end strong myself for the intensity, I never once bought the super status either. To my knowledge, nobody on our forum did. The recent WWB that the GFS had forecast last week to be very strong, well, it has backed off on the intensity in this week's forecast.

Last Week:

WWBGFS Last Week.gif

This Week:

WWBGFS This Week.gif

[tron777]

To add... you can clearly see the forcing has continued to be west of the date line which is interesting. We should get a strong STJ in the future and I think we maybe starting to see hints of that with the recent storminess post 11/20 showing up on the modeling. We absolutely need the blocking to force some cold air south for the STJ to take advantage of for snow lovers as we continue to state over and over on our forum. It is absolutely critical! For now... we sit and wait as usual lol

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and some wonderful info. I agree nobody on this forum had a strong El Nino and most including myself was at the lower end. I believe the problem with the models was the quick turnaround from a La Nina to warmer waters that turned up so quickly. The Atlantic Hurricane season though it really stayed mainly away from the USA was very busy and that is normally not what you see with an El Nino. I believe many busts from mets and forecasters who bought into the strong El Nino. I believe folks on here that put out forecasts were not biting on that at all.

The old saying I see better than I hear is so true.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I love that old saying too. It's 100% the truth.

[tron777]

The Euro seasonal back on 11/1 shows a strong PV for November which we already know is occurring. However, the model weakens it in December into January with perhaps, a major SSW occurring late Dec or early Jan. Additionally, the JMA 500 MB pattern for JFM looks wonderful with split flow and a nice -EPO / -NAO combo with blocking over Alaska and the Yukon as well as Greenland. I'd gladly take a mild December if we can score after the New Year.

Nov-10-Euro-10mb.png

Nov-10-Euro-SSW-vs-Model-Climo.png

Nov-10-JMA-JFM.png

[tpweather]

Les those maps are nice and most are showing the eastern USA and western Europe having the most likely winter with temps at or below normal. Getting the Greenland or Scandinavia blocks is the key for these folks . This puts on the western edge of some decent cold spells and that is where overriding systems can bring us an ice storm. Again like predicting snow totals ice storms are not easy to come by and talking about one that knocks out power and keeps the roads icy for more than 24 hours. I will take snow in a heartbeat.

[tron777]

Les those maps are nice and most are showing the eastern USA and western Europe having the most likely winter with temps at or below normal. Getting the Greenland or Scandinavia blocks is the key for these folks . This puts on the western edge of some decent cold spells and that is where overriding systems can bring us an ice storm. Again like predicting snow totals ice storms are not easy to come by and talking about one that knocks out power and keeps the roads icy for more than 24 hours. I will take snow in a heartbeat.

I've had enough of frz rain and sleet storms! No doubt about that Tim! Either plain rain or all snow and that's it. Unfortunately, that's not how weather works as we all know. We take whatever happens and deal with it like we always have. The block over AK and the Yukon is very important to get the cold air into the Lower 48 then the -NAO to keep it there to slow the jets down so proper phasing can occur for bigger storm systems. That is the set up most snow lovers want to see who live East of the MS River. I'm really intrigued with the upcoming winter to be quite honest. The conflicting signals we have discussed that we keep referring to will be battling it out to drive the overall weather pattern and with the MEI weak, (assuming it stays weak) it won't always be ENSO (in this case the El Nino). We will need to look to the other factors such as the -QBO, -PDO, MJO etc.

[tron777]

JMA Seasonal is out and you can go their site to see the maps for yourself.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... pztmap.php

December is what you'd expect in an El Nino, but January and February look very cold esp February. Feb could be the coldest month of the entire winter if this is correct. That has been the theme on a lot of these seasonal models and fits well with my thinking. A mild December, an improving January and a very cold February. Then, spring arrives early in March probably by mid month. I think Trev's outlook as a whole reflected these ideas as well.

Side Note: CB's winter outlook debuts this coming Thursday at 6pm on WKYT in Lexington.

[Bgoney]

JMA Seasonal is out and you can go their site to see the maps for yourself.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... pztmap.php

December is what you'd expect in an El Nino, but January and February look very cold esp February. Feb could be the coldest month of the entire winter if this is correct. That has been the theme on a lot of these seasonal models and fits well with my thinking. A mild December, an improving January and a very cold February. Then, spring arrives early in March probably by mid month. I think Trev's outlook as a whole reflected these ideas as well.

Side Note: CB's winter outlook debuts this coming Thursday at 6pm on WKYT in Lexington.

East coasters are going to go ape over those

[tron777]

JMA Seasonal is out and you can go their site to see the maps for yourself.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... pztmap.php

December is what you'd expect in an El Nino, but January and February look very cold esp February. Feb could be the coldest month of the entire winter if this is correct. That has been the theme on a lot of these seasonal models and fits well with my thinking. A mild December, an improving January and a very cold February. Then, spring arrives early in March probably by mid month. I think Trev's outlook as a whole reflected these ideas as well.

Side Note: CB's winter outlook debuts this coming Thursday at 6pm on WKYT in Lexington.

East coasters are going to go ape over those

You know it! How much for Philly?

[tron777]

Here is a really interesting chart in terms of 850 MB winds and the WWB's we keep talking about. For the super El Nino years of 1982, 1997, and 2015, you'll notice a big spike with the WWB's were very intense and thus, aiding in warming the El Nino to super status. This year's WWB's have underperformed as we've been talking about. 2023 is even under 1994, 2002, and 2009 (so far) which were moderate to strong El Nino's. Most people on our forum already know this, but this is just another graphical representation of it.

WWB Chart.png

[Bgoney]

Here is a really interesting chart in terms of 850 MB winds and the WWB's we keep talking about. For the super El Nino years of 1982, 1997, and 2015, you'll notice a big spike with the WWB's were very intense and thus, aiding in warming the El Nino to super status. This year's WWB's have underperformed as we've been talking about. 2023 is even under 1994, 2002, and 2009 (so far) which were moderate to strong El Nino's. Most people on our forum already know this, but this is just another graphical representation of it.


WWB Chart.png

I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, what were Mets and certain government agencies looking at the last several months? All this historical information out there to be taken in consideration was completely ignored (by them). It was so obvious many months ago that those forecasting strong or super were full of it. And again , I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, are they that blindly biased and/or corrupt

[tron777]

Here is a really interesting chart in terms of 850 MB winds and the WWB's we keep talking about. For the super El Nino years of 1982, 1997, and 2015, you'll notice a big spike with the WWB's were very intense and thus, aiding in warming the El Nino to super status. This year's WWB's have underperformed as we've been talking about. 2023 is even under 1994, 2002, and 2009 (so far) which were moderate to strong El Nino's. Most people on our forum already know this, but this is just another graphical representation of it.


WWB Chart.png

I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, what were Mets and certain government agencies looking at the last several months? All this historical information out there to be taken in consideration was completely ignored (by them). It was so obvious many months ago that those forecasting strong or super were full of it. And again , I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, are they that blindly biased and/or corrupt

I don't want to turn this thread into a climate change or global warming debate, but, we know there is an agenda being pushed for fear mongering and money making. Plus, a lot of the models were showing strong and super intensities for this El Nino and a lot of those people blindly followed the data without looking at the overall big picture. I originally said moderate to perhaps low end strong which was not a bad call earlier this year. We never believed the super hype train on this forum whatsoever. If we get periods of severe cold and / or snow this winter, or if late Nov into early Dec offers us some threats... a lot of these Mets and Govt. agencies will have egg on their faces and a lot of explaining to do. Moderate El Nino is probably going to about do it in terms of the ONI measurement when all is said and done.

[Bgoney]

Interesting forecast for the long range MJO, and if correct it would be setting us up for that warmer than normal DEC many are expecting. A possible trip through the maritime which we haven’t seen so far this fall. If it does, I think it would probably mean the weakening IOD and it’s brick wall effects are losing its influence

[tron777]

Interesting forecast for the long range MJO, and if correct it would be setting us up for that warmer than normal DEC many are expecting. A possible trip through the maritime which we haven’t seen so far this fall. If it does, I think it would probably mean the weakening IOD and it’s brick wall effects are losing its influence

I've been watching that as well. A trip thru Phases 3 and 4 is possible in December which would also line up with El Nino. What I am thinking is after the potential cold pattern late this month into early December, then we get a 1-2 week mild period which puts us around mid December. Hopefully it snaps back to cold in time for Christmas but that remains to be seen from this distance.

[Bgoney]

Interesting forecast for the long range MJO, and if correct it would be setting us up for that warmer than normal DEC many are expecting. A possible trip through the maritime which we haven’t seen so far this fall. If it does, I think it would probably mean the weakening IOD and it’s brick wall effects are losing its influence

I've been watching that as well. A trip thru Phases 3 and 4 is possible in December which would also line up with El Nino. What I am thinking is after the potential cold pattern late this month into early December, then we get a 1-2 week mild period which puts us around mid December. Hopefully it snaps back to cold in time for Christmas but that remains to be seen from this distance.

I haven’t looked at a VP map for a few days and today’s forecast is a much different look than the last4-6 weeks or so. You can see the blues and yellows have an eastward progression whereas they had been stuck in a vertical position in the same spot in the tropics equating to an 8,1 phase of MJO. For those wandering what the bles and yellows represent, blues mean rising air (storms,clouds) and the yellows are sinking air(high pressure/clearer skies, thus representing where the MJO might be located . Here’s one from a few weeks back and the latest I have seen from a few days ago

IMG_0749.jpeg

IMG_0810.jpeg

[tron777]

Awesome post, Bgoney! I have not looked at those maps in a while myself. That looks to confirm our suspicions then. In addition there is a tropical wave in the Indian Ocean (IO) that has a chance of tropical development so that also confirms that the MJO should be heading from the WPAC into the IO. I like my above post even more knowing this information. Cold shot coming around or after Thanksgiving... probably lasting into Week 1 of December give or take then we moderate for a couple of weeks.