Absolute Vorticity

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 12:47 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 10:59 am That looks like a wonderful spot Tim! I'll bet you'll see a lot of wildlife, especially deer, with all the woods present. Love the flag pole too!

I like the big concrete pad...perfect for when I visit with my little camper!

Perfect plus there is a 4 car detached garage that has electric but no plumbing. He may make one of the areas into a so called mother-n-law sweet but that is a few year down the road. Notice the deep blue sky. It was so nice up there as you could feel and really smell the fresh air.

A slower climb of temps today as I thought 88-90 would be a good call. Will watch over the next few hours as I am starting to see some higher clouds which would no doubt hurt the temperature rise this afternoon. Dew point only 64 which I will take everyday of summer in our area.

Very nice house and property, Tim! Some of that roofing is interesting, too!

Currently 82 here in G'ville.

86 at CVG as of 3pm. Dews have come up 2 degrees to 66. Thinking any contest related talk is potentially becoming out of reach. We also see CU development since moisture is beginning to increase for possible storms tomorrow.

Best rains per the 12Z Euro at CVG are Sat PM / night and again Wed night / Thurs next week. The model has chances tomorrow too but only 0.20" give or take so to me that means weakening rains and / or more scattered storm coverage.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 3:33 pm Best rains per the 12Z Euro at CVG are Sat PM / night and again Wed night / Thurs next week. The model has chances tomorrow too but only 0.20" give or take so to me that means weakening rains and / or more scattered storm coverage.

Les I believe Thursday is interesting as a mcs should form overnight and head east. How far east before dying out is the question but also if it dies out earlier I believe we become more unstable later in the day so chances go up for thunderstorms. Worse cast is the dying mcs makes it just into the local area before dawn and we get hit with under 1/10 of an inch and the greater instability would be to the southeast and we may miss those thundershowers later in the day. Way too early and need to see the mcs form later this evening and watch the track overnight. Should have no problem in keeping strength for many miles but will that be enough to give us a decent rain. Rooting for the early morning round because I have a golf game in the afternoon.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 3:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 3:33 pm Best rains per the 12Z Euro at CVG are Sat PM / night and again Wed night / Thurs next week. The model has chances tomorrow too but only 0.20" give or take so to me that means weakening rains and / or more scattered storm coverage.

Les I believe Thursday is interesting as a mcs should form overnight and head east. How far east before dying out is the question but also if it dies out earlier I believe we become more unstable later in the day so chances go up for thunderstorms. Worse cast is the dying mcs makes it just into the local area before dawn and we get hit with under 1/10 of an inch and the greater instability would be to the southeast and we may miss those thundershowers later in the day. Way too early and need to see the mcs form later this evening and watch the track overnight. Should have no problem in keeping strength for many miles but will that be enough to give us a decent rain. Rooting for the early morning round because I have a golf game in the afternoon.

The only concern I have is we get screwed by AM weakening showers / clouds and get 0.10 and that's it until Saturday. Otherwise if the timing works out, we can certainly cash in!

Glad that its the All Star break and that the Cubbies and / or White Sox are not playing in town today.

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

While we watch upstream for us in the morning ... We currently have a great evening in progress! A hot grill and cold beer here. BBQ chicken tonight.

----

87 here today, CVG 86. We'll see what happens with the MCS over Chicagoland tonight as it drops SE and begins to weaken towards morning as it heads into the OV is kind of my guess how it will go. Then how does it impact Thurs PM and evening development is the next question after that.

2315 Huntley McHenry IL 4217 8843 One roof blown off in Huntley. Time estimated. (LOT)

2316 Countryside Cook IL 4178 8787 Trees uprooted and roofs blown off near Joliet Road and LaGrange Road. Time Estimated. (LOT)

2316 2 ENE Huntley McHenry IL 4218 8838 Trees down and damage reported to homes near Algonquin and Reed Roads. Time Estimated. (LOT)

2317 1 E La Grange Cook IL 4181 8786 Car windows reported blown out and damage to signs near East Ave. Time estimated. (LOT)

2320 McCook Cook IL 4180 8784 Photo shared on social media of a structure damaged. Time estimated. (LOT)

2323 3 NW South Elgin Kane IL 4202 8834 Large trees 20 inches in diameter down and damage reported to homes ... west of Elgin ... northeast of Campton Hills. Location and time estimated. (LOT)

2344 1 N Carol Stream DuPage IL 4193 8813 Trees snapped and debris lofted. Time estimated. (LOT)

2359 2 WNW O'Hare Airport Cook IL 4200 8794 Warehouses reported damaged on the west side of O'Hare Airport. Location and time estimated. (LOT)

0306 2 ESE Colon Branch MI 4195 8529 Multiple barns damaged at Kane Rd and M-86. Reported by Emergency Management. (IWX)

Reached 86 at CVG, 88 DAY and 87 CMH.

Good morning all! A slight risk now for severe storms along and east of I-71 with a marginal risk for everyone else. Looks like we will see some sun breaks this morning and the radar doesn't look bad at all. What I mean is, our atmosphere for once has not been worked over so PM development actually has a chance!

Below is the 12Z ILN sounding. Looks decent for severe storms if the moderate CAPE that is being shown works out. DCAPE is over 1200 so strong winds likely. Convective temp is 87 so the heat and CAPE are what we need to watch today.

NAM and HRRR aren't too impressive looking at all for this afternoon and evening. HRRR has scattered stuff over SE IN moving into the Metro. NAM has a blob of convection over our Eastern counties but that's about it.

Storms developing near / S of the river at this time.

MD Issued for a portion of the area. T-storm watch likely to be issued soon:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1518.html

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is draped along/near the Ohio
River into southern/eastern OH at 1715Z. A very moist low-level
airmass, characterized by surface dewpoints generally in the low
70s, is present along/south of this boundary. Although large-scale
ascent remains fairly nebulous, sufficient low-level convergence
along the front coupled with the presence of a strong upper jet over
the OH Valley appears to be supporting the development of convection
across parts of WV early this afternoon. Additional development
should occur farther west along/near the Ohio River into northern
KY/southern OH. Latest mesoanalysis suggests that upwards of
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is already available to support robust
updrafts, with even stronger instability forecast to develop over
the next few hours with continued daytime heating.

Various VWPs across this region show weak westerly winds gradually
strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Corresponding speed
shear is contributing to around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear,
locally stronger farther west along the Ohio River. Current
expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually continue increasing
in both coverage and intensity this afternoon as additional diurnal
heating occurs. A mix of multicells and supercells posing a threat
for both large hail and damaging winds should occur. Given the
increasing hail/wind threat, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will
likely be needed.

T-storm Watch just issued there we go until 9pm ET for the Tri-state.

3000-4000 J/KG of CAPE over NKY right now. Too bad the wind shear is weak. Better shear is behind the front near / N of I-70 so that will limit storm organization somewhat. DCAPE is around 1000 and low level lapse rates are steep so hail could be an issue with the strongest cells along with strong winds.

Watch Outline now posted:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0482.html

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
SWITZERLAND, SOUTHERN KENTON, SOUTHERN BOONE, NORTHWESTERN GRANT,
NORTHWESTERN PENDLETON AND EASTERN GALLATIN COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM
EDT...

At 155 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Patriot, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
objects.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Independence, Erlanger, Edgewood, Elsmere, Walton, Union,
Crittenden, Munk, Atwood, Richwood, Ryle, Bank Lick, Morning View,
Big Bone Lick, Bracht, US Routes 42 and 127 at State Route 562,
Fiskburg, Ricedale and Hueys Corners.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN PENDLETON...SOUTHERN CLERMONT
AND WEST CENTRAL BROWN COUNTIES...

At 159 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Neville, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Georgetown, Amelia, Mount Orab, Bethel, New Richmond,
Williamsburg, Felicity, Hamersville, Mentor, Moscow, California,
Saltair, Gubser Mill, Nicholsville, Ivor, Campbell County Lake, Point
Isabel, Feesburg and New Hope.

88 with a dew of 73 as of 2pm at CVG. Can we get 89'ed for the contest or will a t-storm ruin that idea?

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 13, 2023 2:04 pm 88 with a dew of 73 as of 2pm at CVG. Can we get 89'ed for the contest or will a t-storm ruin that idea?

What a contrast as here in G'ville its 79 and a DP of 61. DAY is at 85 with a DP of 64.