Absolute Vorticity

I had a high of 79 today. Just picked up a light rain shower. Temp dropped to 68. 0.07" of rain fell

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Has been a bad week in Richmond with that fire at a plastics recycling factory that started in a parked semi trailer filled with plastic pieces. Thankfully the fire is now out but hazardous toxins were released into the atmosphere which will be investigated as well as the fire cause itself. Prayers with that city.

Currently 72 here in G'ville.

A few showers around today but most folks will remain dry. Best chance is still tomorrow esp around midday with the front. Temps fall and winds crank up tomorrow afternoon. Continued raw and chilly for Monday with slowly improving conditions Tues. Wed and Thurs are great with the next shot for storms by Friday.

Have a couple of cousins and their families in O'Fallon, MO near St Louis who are in the Enhanced zone.

...SUMMARY...

Scattered swaths of severe thunderstorms are expected through
tonight from the Mid-Missouri Valley to the Gulf Coast. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the dominant hazards in terms of
coverage, but a few tornadoes will be possible, especially across
parts of Missouri and Arkansas.

...SUMMARY...

Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging
winds and hail will be possible in parts of the Southeast and
Carolinas, northward into the Appalachians and southern Great Lakes.

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Currently 79 here in G'ville. Wish these kinds of temps would last into next week!

Snow showers could mix with rain late Sun night into Mon morning up this way.

Both DAY and CMH reached 80 and CVG 78 today.

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80 IMBY today. CVG topped out at 78. The front comes thru tomorrow with wind and rain. Monday sucks that is my travel day to Lake Erie. I will fish Tues, Wed, and Thurs, and hopefully Fri. I am not in this tournament. This tournament is going to be out of Monroe, MI. The tournament I am in the one in June I am in out of Lorain, OH also on Lake Erie. It was originally for CLE but the MWC could not get the permit so Lorain picked it up.

Good Morning and down in SC. My son and his wife are headed to northern Wisconsin this week to house hunt and more snow expected tonight with 5-10 inches by Monday morning, It never stops snowing up there lol. Yes it will melt but this imo is only going to hurt the flooding in May. Northern plains and upper mid-west crushed this season with snow. Nice week expected here locally with wonderful temps and humidity. Will be home next Sunday as starting to pack up stuff to bring back home. One U-haul this upcoming weekend and one late June when we are finally out of SC. Hope everyone has a great week and Les good luck with the fishing and hopefully the weather works in your favor.

Thanks Tim! Will be leaving sometime tomorrow. Going to get all my stuff packed up today. On my new home PC now posting on the forum! Finally got it up and running the other day too. A few bands of showers are closing in on us ahead of the front. Winds to 30 mph already out ahead of it today.

Light rain and wind here. High of 69. Now down to 56 degrees. Rainfall amounts for most look to be under a tenth of an inch. Then wind and temps falling is the rule for the rest of the day. Cloudy, a flurry and shower possible northern zones tomorrow. Windy all areas. Temps in the 40s and 50s for highs, 30s in the morning. Possible frost Tues morning then a warming trend. 70s to near 80 ahead of this coming Friday's cold front which is our next chance of t-storms.

Long term... late April and early May looks chilly with more frosts possible as we get blocking and a winter time pattern. +PNA, -EPO, -AO and -NAO expected. MJO in Phase 7 expected to make another tour into Phases 8 then 1 before dying off again in the neutral circle is the current model forecast thru the 2nd week of May.

I'd also like to add that the El Nino prospects continue to grow for the summer and upcoming Autumn and even winter periods. A moderate Nino or even strong is not out of the question. The current level of warming we are seeing is impressive as well as model forecasts. SOI is running more negative now too which is a good indicator of the oncoming El Nino. Thinking currently it starts out as east based, We'll see how it matures throughout the summer months as well as how much of a Nina hangover effect will there be?


If you look at the first image... a robust -PDO signal can also be seen. Could this help to fight off the Nino and allow the Atlantic to have a better tropical season and more heat into the East then you'd otherwise expect in an El Nino summer? Typically they are cooler and wetter for us. It's early so tough to say yet with confidence how the summer will be,. Yeah you have a Nino coming but a -PDO which is more typical of a Nina not Nino. The Pacific is definitely going to be in a hostile state as we get deeper into spring and summer.

SPS out this afternoon for everyone. From the boys:

...GUSTY SHOWERS AND RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...

A broken band of gusty showers will quickly move through the
region late this morning into early afternoon. West-southwest
winds gusts around 40 MPH will be possible with the showers, with
gusts to 30-35 MPH lingering through the afternoon behind the
showers. Rapidly dropping temperatures from the 70s into the
upper 40s and lower 50s will accompany the frontal passage.

Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could
be blown down.

Have a great trip and time Les!

Currently 54 here in G'ville.

Not unexpected as the 1:40 start for the Redlegs / Phillies rubber match is in delay mode.

Thanks Bro! Going to head out to my Brother's tomorrow and we'll leave from there in the afternoon. Prospects to get out Tues aren't good due to wind but Wed and Thurs should be good. Hopefully we can get out on Fri my cousin and I during the tournament and fun fish some too weather permitting.

53 here 0.01" CVG got 0.02" and is checking in with 54 as temps continue to drop behind the front.

Good luck Les, Here's the week forecast for Monroe MI

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Apr 16, 2023 2:31 pm Good luck Les, Here's the week forecast for Monroe MI





monroe.PNG

Thanks Bgoney! Canadian waters are also open for the tournament (and for the one in June) so I now have an Ontario license, MI and OH. Love blowing a few hundred before even getting a line wet. Been seeing some cleaner water on the Canadian side when looking at the Modis images. We'll see what the guys want to do when we get up there.