Absolute Vorticity

2250 UNK 3 NNW MOSELEYVILLE DAVIESS KY 3770 8722 TWO GARAGES COLLAPSED ALONG WAYNE BRIDGES ROAD WEST OF HWY 81. (PAH)

2250 UNK 3 N MOSELEYVILLE DAVIESS KY 3771 8719 SEMI BLOWN OFF THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY 81. POWER LINE DOWN. (PAH)

2250 UNK 4 N MOSELEYVILLE DAVIESS KY 3772 8718 WEST DAVIESS COUNTY AT ROME. LARGE PINE TREE AND WEEPING WILLOW BLOWN OVER. WIND WAS SO STRONG WE COULDNT SEE THE ROAD WHICH IS ABOUT 100 YARDS AWAY. BARN BLOWN DOWN. (PAH)

2250 100 4 NW OWENSBORO DAVIESS KY 3779 8717 REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.). (PAH)

2309 100 1 NNW TELL CITY PERRY IN 3796 8676 (LMK)

2320 100 FREDONIA CALDWELL KY 3721 8806 RELAYED BY WPSD. (PAH)

2325 150 1 E SULPHUR SPRINGS CRAWFORD IN 3821 8644 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR BEECHWOOD. IN A PICTURE THE HAIL WAS CLEARLY LARGER THAN A QUARTER. (LMK)

2354 175 1 SSW BRADFORD HARRISON IN 3835 8608 (LMK)

2354 175 2 NNE CENTRAL BARREN HARRISON IN 3839 8608 (LMK)

2355 150 NEW SALISBURY HARRISON IN 3832 8610 BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED PICTURE OF HAIL MEASURED AGAINST A RULER. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LMK)

2358 100 1 S HANOVER JEFFERSON IN 3870 8547 (LMK)

0000 100 GREENVILLE FLOYD IN 3837 8598 (LMK)

0000 175 HANOVER JEFFERSON IN 3872 8547 (LMK)

0005 100 MILTON TRIMBLE KY 3871 8537 (LMK)

0015 100 1 NNW GOSHEN OLDHAM KY 3842 8560 REPORT FROM MPING OF QUARTER HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LMK)

0015 100 VEVAY SWITZERLAND IN 3875 8507 (ILN)

0016 100 MEMPHIS CLARK IN 3848 8577 (LMK)

0021 100 1 ENE OTISCO CLARK IN 3854 8565 (LMK)

Good morning all! A nice day on tap today the upper 50s before our flood watch kicks in tonight at 1am. It runs until 1am Fri night. 2-3" is the call from the flood watch text. I will keep my 1-2" call. Then, a decent weekend is on tap. 70 again by Monday of next week! We'll drop into the 50s as time goes on and then into the 40s towards the end of next week. Then we are to 3/10. We shall see how that goes when we get closer.

SPC has a marginal risk for most folks S of I-70 and a slight risk just south of the Metro in KY. This is for Fri afternoon. Track of the low will determine this as well as CAPE. As you can see here lately, 500 J/KG has been enough to get it done due to strong dynamics in place. Steep lapse rates are also key as we saw last evening.

Good Morning Les and ended up with only 0.14 inches of rain but most of that in 2 minutes. I agree with the 1-2 inches and two things could give us more than 2 inches. First the rain continues longer on Friday Morning into early afternoon. Second is we get the first round of rain but have some clearing in the early afternoon which could enhance the showers and thundershowers later in the day. These system always have a mind of their own but chances of more than 2 inches is possible and I agree with the flash flood watch.

Good morning Tim! I agree with the flood watch too. Someone will get over 2" if t-storms are involved or if the track is further south and the warm front stays closer to us. But in a general sense 1-2" looks good since we don't yet know how it will all play out.

DT put out a new video last night he sounded pretty pumped for the month of March. he even mentions 1993 and 1888 as we get towards mid month lol I am a little gun shy and will remain optimistic and slightly intrigued . there is nothing going on for the next week but the temps look to be fairly seasonal so that is a plus I guess

DT's Video for those interested:





My thoughts would be that those events are so rare but anomalous blocking, SSW and MJO in Phase 8 do make for a big storm argument around the mid March period. I just wouldn't use 1993 or 1888 as analogs.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:35 am DT put out a new video last night he sounded pretty pumped for the month of March. he even mentions 1993 and 1888 as we get towards mid month lol I am a little gun shy and will remain optimistic and slightly intrigued . there is nothing going on for the next week but the temps look to be fairly seasonal so that is a plus I guess

1888 I remember that year like it was yesterday

12Z NAM coming in with 1.08" of rain for tomorrow at CVG. The sounding is kinda crazy too for tomorrow afternoon:


12Z HRRR is a little more tame since the low track is a bit further south almost on top of us so less time in the warm sector. Low track is critical with this for tomorrow afternoon.

12Z GFS has the low track from IND to just south of CLE. So we are still seeing a lot of differences in the low track as well as strength even this close to game time. Probably is going to turn into another nowcast as is typical for us.

EDIT: At CVG the model spits out 1.85" of rain.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:51 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:35 am DT put out a new video last night he sounded pretty pumped for the month of March. he even mentions 1993 and 1888 as we get towards mid month lol I am a little gun shy and will remain optimistic and slightly intrigued . there is nothing going on for the next week but the temps look to be fairly seasonal so that is a plus I guess

1888 I remember that year like it was yesterday

If im not mistaken I think there was actually two blizzards that happened that winter. I think that was the year NYC actually saw 3 or 4 ft and massive drifts through the city

This is from CB's website. Very impressive. The tornado parameters are extremely high tomorrow across Kentucky. A few tornados would seem likely.

Thats crazy , when was the last time Kentucky saw a tornado during a winter month

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 1:15 pm Thats crazy , when was the last time Kentucky saw a tornado during a winter month

It's actually more common than you might think. It's happened a few times already this winter. With the warm winters we've been having, if I recall, the last few winters Kentucky has seen tornados during winter!

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 1:15 pm Thats crazy , when was the last time Kentucky saw a tornado during a winter month

In recent times it seems to happen more often. 2021 in December 80 folks were killed in the tornado's that hit western Kentucky. This past Monday we even had a few tornado's in southern Ohio. Then March 2 2012 we had deadly tornado's locally and my wife was friends with a lady at work whose husband was killed that afternoon in his truck while talking to his wife. Of course April 3rd 1974 which I know is not spring but my number one weather event and have never seen an afternoon like that with funnel clouds just dropping out of the sky every direction you looked. One of the hottest days I remember as well and probably because we were coming out of winter and not quite adjusted to the heat and humidity but I was 12 at the time and just remember being outside looking at the funnel clouds and sweat just dripping off me.

12Z Euro gives CVG 1.88" of rain for Friday.

Euro is all in later next week with the PV not to far away. Concerning Friday and I agree severe weather is going to rather strong in places. Locally how much rainfall in the morning and how far north the warm front goes will determine severe weather for us.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 1:51 pm Euro is all in later next week with the PV not to far away. Concerning Friday and I agree severe weather is going to rather strong in places. Locally how much rainfall in the morning and how far north the warm front goes will determine severe weather for us.

Models will struggle with late next week on into next weekend. A colder theme continues to show up. How we get there and what happens after we get cold are the big question marks. We are going back into a blocking pattern and I expect to see some wild swings in the guidance especially if the MJO can get strongly into Phase 8 mid to late next week.

Euro / EPS have been kicking the Western US trough out faster versus the GFS which keeps wanting to hold the energy back longer. This is one reason why the Euro is much colder in the extended range versus the GFS. Same can be said with each models Ensembles.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:09 pm Euro / EPS have been kicking the Western US trough out faster versus the GFS which keeps wanting to hold the energy back longer. This is one reason why the Euro is much colder in the extended range versus the GFS. Same can be said with each models Ensembles.

I agree with the Euro as you are already starting to see the ridging over Alaska this weekend and should be in full force next week. If the mjo is correct and moving into phase 8 and is rather strong then yes the Euro should be on to something good hopefully for us. Les you have been pointing towards the 10th for days if not weeks and you may hit that nail on the head. With La Nina dying out and hopefully never returns this should at least give us a few weeks where some winter like weather may happen.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:09 pm Euro / EPS have been kicking the Western US trough out faster versus the GFS which keeps wanting to hold the energy back longer. This is one reason why the Euro is much colder in the extended range versus the GFS. Same can be said with each models Ensembles.

I agree with the Euro as you are already starting to see the ridging over Alaska this weekend and should be in full force next week. If the mjo is correct and moving into phase 8 and is rather strong then yes the Euro should be on to something good hopefully for us. Les you have been pointing towards the 10th for days if not weeks and you may hit that nail on the head. With La Nina dying out and hopefully never returns this should at least give us a few weeks where some winter like weather may happen.

This is the last chance IMO. If this new pattern fails to produce in the 3/10-25 range then it just wasn't meant to be. But this is the best modeling has looked since December in terms of what's going on upstairs especially the Euro / EPS. Much colder pattern due to the Aleutian Ridge getting displaced allowing the Western US trough to finally move eastward. That is what we need so it takes care of the SE Ridge as well.

Severe threat has expanded now for tomorrow. Enhanced Risk out for Central and SKY as well as a high wind warning in that same area. For us in Cincy, a slight risk with a 5% tornado risk and 30% wind. Another high shear, low CAPE set up.

This winter has been a bust in many ways but Bgoney has done well and using the MJO and looking at how La Nina was not fading like many models showed he was not going in on the colder temps later in January and February. Great work Bgoney. My biggest problem was February and just a swing and miss by all means.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:44 pm This winter has been a bust in many ways but Bgoney has done well and using the MJO and looking at how La Nina was not fading like many models showed he was not going in on the colder temps later in January and February. Great work Bgoney. My biggest problem was February and just a swing and miss by all means.

Now that the Nina is fading, the MJO should (I hope LOL) be able to make it into phase 8 and at a much higher amplitude. It looks to stay in that phase for a couple of weeks too. This go around the models have yet to back off. They have only gotten stronger.