February 2023 Discussion

[tron777]

Winter weather advisories for parts of the local area and just south and east of the 3 northern counties in Kentucky

18Z NAM agrees with the placement of the advisory.

[BookNerdCarp]

NOAA logo Interactive NWS Alert
New event: Winter Weather Advisory for Brown County, OH
Sent via email and SMS at 242 pm EST, Jan 30th 2023
alert map
Radar valid at 306 pm EST, Jan 30th 2023
alert legend
KYZ094>100-OHZ079-081-082-088-310345-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0004.230131T0200Z-230131T1700Z/
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Brown-Adams-
Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden,
Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet,
Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Georgetown, Mount Orab,
West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
242 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light
glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of Northeast and Northern Kentucky and South
Central and Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/iln as
well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

&&
iNWS is an experimental service intended for NWS core partners, including emergency managers, community leaders and other government agencies only.

[tpweather]

Les my guess is we have passed the advisory or better events that I gave the over/under of 10. Was not expecting to reach that today but anytime frz/drz is involved those advisories go up in a hurry and it makes sense because most folks see the rain is not falling hard and should be no problem.

[tron777]

15Z SREF using CVG has increased the chances for snow and QPF. The mean is up to 0.17" for QPF and shows snow as the main precip type. The 9Z run from earlier I believe only had like a 35% POP for snow. This new run is up to 60% now. HAO has a 35% POP. Going to the south, LOU and LEX are in the 0.20-0.25" range for QPF with more of a snow and sleet combo.

[tpweather]

15Z SREF using CVG has increased the chances for snow and QPF. The mean is up to 0.17" for QPF and shows snow as the main precip type. The 9Z run from earlier I believe only had like a 35% POP for snow. This new run is up to 60% now. HAO has a 35% POP. Going to the south, LOU and LEX are in the 0.20-0.25" range for QPF with more of a snow and sleet combo.

Getting better as we get closer Les. Again will only go so far north but still believe before all is said and done the I-275 loop will be in an advisory to some extent.

[tron777]

Matt... you may get that snow day after all for tomorrow. Good luck to you! I'm rooting for your hood since you missed out on that Sunday event. Tim... this is going to be well over the 10 mark when you count the wave for Tues night into Wed. I don't think we'll be impacted but you'll see some advisories for it well to our south in the OV which would count towards your overall total.

[tron777]

15Z SREF using CVG has increased the chances for snow and QPF. The mean is up to 0.17" for QPF and shows snow as the main precip type. The 9Z run from earlier I believe only had like a 35% POP for snow. This new run is up to 60% now. HAO has a 35% POP. Going to the south, LOU and LEX are in the 0.20-0.25" range for QPF with more of a snow and sleet combo.

Getting better as we get closer Les. Again will only go so far north but still believe before all is said and done the I-275 loop will be in an advisory to some extent.

The best models for us in the Metro are the 15Z RAP and SREF. 18Z HRRR and NAM are better for our southern and SE counties where the advisory has been issued. If we get that last minute northward bump then we will absolutely be under the advisory too. But for now... I like where ILN has it placed currently.

[tpweather]

Looking at temps in southeast Kentucky and Corbin has risen to 55 from 53 so no doubt the front has slowed way down in that area. We complain about the mountains because many times it robs us of a decent snow but they also slow down cold fronts especially cold that is nearer the ground.

[tpweather]

Just dropped to 32 here

[tpweather]

Still believe the Louisville and CVG offices will push up the advisory by a county or two by 9pm this evening. Expect Paducah to issue a winter storm warning for parts of western Ky in the next hour or so. That is how I see this playing out tonight. I will miss all the fun as I have a card game this evening in Erlanger.

[tpweather]

No doubt for the possible system on Thursday the nam is already ramping up more precip in Texas then the previous 24 hours. That is the biggest trend we have seen with all these waves is the closer we get the more precip is shown and the further north and west movement is shown as well. So don't give up on that Thursday system as I sit on this island all alone.

[tron777]

Still believe the Louisville and CVG offices will push up the advisory by a county or two by 9pm this evening. Expect Paducah to issue a winter storm warning for parts of western Ky in the next hour or so. That is how I see this playing out tonight. I will miss all the fun as I have a card game this evening in Erlanger.

Good luck Tim! Hope you can walk away with some cash. New MD issued for frz rain near Dallas / Ft. Worth on up into SE OK.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0115.html

[tron777]

No doubt for the possible system on Thursday the nam is already ramping up more precip in Texas then the previous 24 hours. That is the biggest trend we have seen with all these waves is the closer we get the more precip is shown and the further north and west movement is shown as well. So don't give up on that Thursday system as I sit on this island all alone.

NAM gets wintry precip into Western / Central KY now S of I-64. I posted earlier how the 12z GFS came way north so the 18Z run in a little while will be interesting to see. I'm still sitting in my boat doing some fishing anchored offshore so I haven't pulled away from the island yet.

[tpweather]

No doubt for the possible system on Thursday the nam is already ramping up more precip in Texas then the previous 24 hours. That is the biggest trend we have seen with all these waves is the closer we get the more precip is shown and the further north and west movement is shown as well. So don't give up on that Thursday system as I sit on this island all alone.

NAM gets wintry precip into Western / Central KY now S of I-64. I posted earlier how the 12z GFS came way north so the 18Z run in a little while will be interesting to see. I'm still sitting in my boat doing some fishing anchored offshore so I haven't pulled away from the island yet.

Les love your sense of humor. Hopefully you wont need to throw me a life jacket

[tron777]

AFD from the boys for tonight / tomorrow.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Light wintry mix continues to progress across the forecast area.
This should move east of the area by early evening. Will
continue to see little to no impact from this activity.

There will be a brief lull before next round of precipitation
pushes in from the southwest late this evening. This will be
aligned with low level frontogenesis. This will result in a
relatively narrow band of precipitation which will move from
northern Kentucky into northeast Kentucky and south central
Ohio. Much of this is forecast to be snow, but forecast
soundings suggest that there could be some sleet and/or freezing
rain at onset. Snow/sleet accumulations will be less than an
inch with any glaze being very light. But with air and road
temperatures falling, expect this to cause slick roads. Thus
have issued a winter weather advisory for where impacts will be
the greatest. Much of the precipitation will occur between 03Z
and 10Z but with impacts expected to linger through the Tuesday
morning rush, the advisory extends through the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation will be exiting the southeast part of the forecast
area early Tuesday morning. This could end as a period of
freezing drizzle as there is the potential to lose ice within
the cloud.

Thereafter, high pressure will start to build in. Clouds will
start to erode in northern counties Tuesday afternoon with the
improving sky condition gradually working further south on
Tuesday night.

The high will bring a colder airmass. Highs will range from the
lower 20s to lower 30s while lows will be from around 10 to the
lower 20s.

[tron777]

No doubt for the possible system on Thursday the nam is already ramping up more precip in Texas then the previous 24 hours. That is the biggest trend we have seen with all these waves is the closer we get the more precip is shown and the further north and west movement is shown as well. So don't give up on that Thursday system as I sit on this island all alone.

NAM gets wintry precip into Western / Central KY now S of I-64. I posted earlier how the 12z GFS came way north so the 18Z run in a little while will be interesting to see. I'm still sitting in my boat doing some fishing anchored offshore so I haven't pulled away from the island yet.

Les love your sense of humor. Hopefully you wont need to throw me a life jacket

Thanks Tim! Same to you! I wouldn't mind one bit to pull my lines up and dock the boat to join you on the island. The boys have noticed and they briefly mention it in the long term section of the AFD which I have posted right here for you.

Much of the long term period is dominated by dry conditions.
Wednesday night through Thursday now has a dry forecast across the
south, however, the latest 12Z GFS and GEFS indicate small chances
of precipitation continue to hang on. Otherwise, the forecast is dry
through the rest of the week and into the first half of the weekend.

[tron777]

BG did another SnowTalk! video about an hour ago.

[tpweather]

Paducah has added a few counties in southeast Missouri to the winter storm warning but mentioned they may add some further southeast later this evening depending how things are panning out at the time. They also mentioned several lightning strikes in Oklahoma so this tells me the system is ramping up nicely. Also seeing the flow from the GOM starting to head north and sometimes this influx can increase precip totals somewhat but just need to follow that trend as well. Enjoy the evening and heading out shortly for an evening of cards. Hopefully I still have my shirt when I leave because it may be a bit chilly later tonight.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM has all snow for Cincy and Boone, Kenton, Campbell with sleet to the south of there. Eventually, as the system begins to sink a bit more to the south, even S / SE counties see a changeover to snow as well while the snow ends for Cincy and Boone, Kenton, and Campbell cos. 0.10" for QPF for Cincy and 0.20 to 0.25" for our S counties and Matt's hood. 1-2" looks good on this model for snow and sleet accum. I'd say 1.5" of snow if you stay all snow and closer to the 1" mark if you see more sleet. Frz rain concerns for AV Country are well to the south of our forum area.

I'm still thinking the Tues night into Wed wave is more of an issue for Central KY on south and I am watching GHD, but still I am anchored offshore waiting to see if I join Tim or have to go pick him up.

[dce]

I hope the southern posters cash in tonight. Looks like 1-3 will set up somewhere in northern Kentucky. Who knows? Could overachieve.

[tron777]

31 at CVG still as of the 4pm reading with the 850 0C line right over us now down here. Just need us to cool a touch more and move that precip in! Still tracking that band of snow / sleet over Southern MO to see how it tracks across our southern counties tonight. Cincy along with Boone, Kenton, Campbell, it's going to be a close one! North of that line, you should be fine in my opinion. If we get one more bump north then I could see ILN expanding the advisory one more row of counties north. For now, it's just too early to know for sure so again, I like where the current placement of the advisories here for our area and this will continue to be a nowcasting situation.

[tron777]

I hope the southern posters cash in tonight. Looks like 1-3 will set up somewhere in northern Kentucky. Who knows? Could overachieve.

So far anyway, a lot of that snow band on radar is sleet. NWS out of Springfield, MO has been getting reports of up to an inch of sleet with that activity as of 4pm EST. We need to monitor the warm nose for sure.

[BookNerdCarp]

It will be interesting to see what different precipitation types mix in tonight. I’m down to 34 degrees.

[tron777]

31 / 29 IMBY with 0.02" of rain so far today. 18Z GFS doesn't really offer much difference from the 12Z run other then the fact that it went back south again for GHD.

[tron777]

I honestly like the ongoing forecast and don't really see the need to make any changes. Letting it ride with up to an inch of snow possible for Boone, Kenton Campbell and maybe S Hamilton. Nothing north of there. Then to the south where the advisories are placed, an inch to 2" of snow / sleet combination with any frz rain concerns south of our local area. I'm letting this idea ride and we'll see where we end up in the morning. The front looks to be installed along the Apps as Eastern KY is still in the mid 50s with SW winds. Meanwhile, we are at 31, LOU 34 and Paducah is down to 28 awaiting the precip's arrival in the next hour or two.