Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:22 am Hey Doug and my main concern is the high pressure to the north. I would like to see it stronger which would help drive the colder air further south. I do believe the model is correct with the pattern and I do believe the cold in northeast Canada is important over the next week to 10 days but I just want those highs to develop a little stronger and a little further south. I believe over the next 2 says each run will have a different placement and strength of the high and the low that develops in the central plains. Good to see the system in the time period of Jan7th-10 and my guess more energy next week as well.

What I love on the gfs model and yes I agree with the model which is usually not the case but it starting to see ridging in the west and though not to strong at first and allows pieces of energy to make it eastward but towards later next week that ridge looks to become stronger and this should be one of the items we look at for a change in the pattern

Yes. We need just a little more cold air for the GFS solution to be correct. Temps are very marginal. Less than 10:1 ratio on that GFS Kuchera map. Although, occasionally we do get several inches at marginal temps, I don't buy that solution. We will definitely be watching future model runs to see what happens.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:36 am All 12Z GEFS members are now showing something for this weekend. Solutions range from a weak piece of junk to an amp'ed up low cutting thru N IN, and N OH bringing snow to Lower Mich and everything in between. Majority of the members have that low tracking to our West and NW which almost always never equals a good snow. It's usually a mix or rain. Plenty of time of course to watch this system but this maybe our next thread starter potentially here.

Les this is one time we want the weak piece of junk.Back in the caveman days we called them river runners because they tended to ride just south of the Ohio River and if the temps were cold enough we got some accumulation. I still am concerned about the temp profile and rooting for the high to the northwest and northeast to be stronger and maybe getting both to sort of combined so they can achieve the colder outcome.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:37 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:22 am Hey Doug and my main concern is the high pressure to the north. I would like to see it stronger which would help drive the colder air further south. I do believe the model is correct with the pattern and I do believe the cold in northeast Canada is important over the next week to 10 days but I just want those highs to develop a little stronger and a little further south. I believe over the next 2 says each run will have a different placement and strength of the high and the low that develops in the central plains. Good to see the system in the time period of Jan7th-10 and my guess more energy next week as well.

What I love on the gfs model and yes I agree with the model which is usually not the case but it starting to see ridging in the west and though not to strong at first and allows pieces of energy to make it eastward but towards later next week that ridge looks to become stronger and this should be one of the items we look at for a change in the pattern

Yes. We need just a little more cold air for the GFS solution to be correct. Temps are very marginal. Less than 10:1 ratio on that GFS Kuchera map. Although, occasionally we do get several inches at marginal temps, I don't buy that solution. We will definitely be watching future model runs to see what happens.

I agree right now that the ratios will be less then 10:1. Whomever gets snow will get that heavy, wet, concrete type of snow with ratios probably being only like 7:1 or 8:1 in my opinion. That can change of course but that's my thinking looking at surface temps.

12Z UKIE is much weaker showing a 1019 MB low tracking thru S MO and weakening as it does so. UKIE puts down an inch or two of snow for the area if you get under one of those mesoscale bands before it peters out.

EDIT: My mistake. That is the 0Z UKIE. Sorry about that. The new 12Z run is a completely opposite solution of a much stronger low, 1009 MB over S Lake Michigan. This model is all over the place.

Updated rainfall total for my hood: 1.39"

Rain is moving back into the Metro and folks to the SE from there thanks to the front slowing down as our next wave works up along the front. This will take care of any severe wx concerns (seeing more rain) but localized flooding could become a problem in some areas. In LOU's CWA, they saw 5" of rain in some areas so far and of course, the flooding down there is much worse.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 12:29 pm Updated rainfall total for my hood: 1.39"

Only .4" here. Missed out on the heavy stuff.

1206 UNK 5 SE LOVELAND CLERMONT OH 3923 8420 SMALL TREE REPORTED DOWN ON FAY ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1207 UNK 5 NE FELICITY CLERMONT OH 3889 8405 TREE BLOCKING ROAD ON 774. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1310 UNK 3 WSW LUCASVILLE SCIOTO OH 3886 8305 TREE DOWN ON DUCK RUN ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

12Z Euro is coming in with a very weak piece of junk solution for this weekend. The energy is separate and not phased so we get too rounds of light precip as a result. Mainly liquid since we have little in the way of cold air since it's a non-phased weak system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 1:38 pm 12Z Euro is coming in with a very weak piece of junk solution for this weekend. The energy is separate and not phased so we get too rounds of light precip as a result. Mainly liquid since we have little in the way of cold air since it's a non-phased weak system.

You can see on the Euro it has no ideal where to put the energy during this time period. I still believe we need to wait until Thursday and then lets see where,when and how strong they show the piece or pieces of energy.Still believe Les are overall solution for the first half of the month is just fine

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 2:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 1:38 pm 12Z Euro is coming in with a very weak piece of junk solution for this weekend. The energy is separate and not phased so we get too rounds of light precip as a result. Mainly liquid since we have little in the way of cold air since it's a non-phased weak system.

You can see on the Euro it has no ideal where to put the energy during this time period. I still believe we need to wait until Thursday and then lets see where,when and how strong they show the piece or pieces of energy.Still believe Les are overall solution for the first half of the month is just fine

I agree Tim... should someone start a thread on this system or wait a little longer?

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:36 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 2:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 1:38 pm 12Z Euro is coming in with a very weak piece of junk solution for this weekend. The energy is separate and not phased so we get too rounds of light precip as a result. Mainly liquid since we have little in the way of cold air since it's a non-phased weak system.

You can see on the Euro it has no ideal where to put the energy during this time period. I still believe we need to wait until Thursday and then lets see where,when and how strong they show the piece or pieces of energy.Still believe Les are overall solution for the first half of the month is just fine

I agree Tim... should someone start a thread on this system or wait a little longer?

I say roll the dice Les

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:36 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 2:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 1:38 pm 12Z Euro is coming in with a very weak piece of junk solution for this weekend. The energy is separate and not phased so we get too rounds of light precip as a result. Mainly liquid since we have little in the way of cold air since it's a non-phased weak system.

You can see on the Euro it has no ideal where to put the energy during this time period. I still believe we need to wait until Thursday and then lets see where,when and how strong they show the piece or pieces of energy.Still believe Les are overall solution for the first half of the month is just fine

I agree Tim... should someone start a thread on this system or wait a little longer?

I say roll the dice Les

Storm Thread for the possible weekend event has been created. Please use this thread folks:

https://absolutevorticity.com/posting.php?mode=post&f=9

Back to our current system and the bulk of the rain is over for now. A couple of storms have popped in ILL ahead of the front so we'll need to keep an eye to see how good (or bad) the coverage is tonight as the front gets closer and eventually passes thru by early tomorrow morning (at CVG). CVG checks in with 1.29" event total as of 4pm.

Seeing what looks like tornado warning boxes popping up in central Illinois.

Good Evening and dried out quite nicely this afternoon. What is the reason why you will see the NWS long term forecast and it can go days or weeks showing warmer than normal or colder than normal and then all of a sudden one day it changes. What info is fed into these computers that we see this so often in the winter. I have no ideal and since I am the least likely person to understand models. I just don't know if models have any info that is related to patterns and I wish I knew the reason why. Models seem imo to be such a numbers game and climatology mixed together and sure sometimes that works great but when you see these flips especially in the winter and they seem to happen overnight then something extra has just been added to the formula. Maybe its just the nature of models and we are probably still years upon years to where models are thinking on their own which in many ways is scary but interesting as well.

Quite a wet day IMBY

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:53 pm Seeing what looks like tornado warning boxes popping up in central Illinois.

Good eye! There's still a few warned cells in ILL even as of this post. They are moving NE and should weaken in time in my opinion once they move away from the surface based instability. 500 J/KG currently exists over Central ILL but quickly drops off in IN and we have zero here.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:07 pm Good Evening and dried out quite nicely this afternoon. What is the reason why you will see the NWS long term forecast and it can go days or weeks showing warmer than normal or colder than normal and then all of a sudden one day it changes. What info is fed into these computers that we see this so often in the winter. I have no ideal and since I am the least likely person to understand models. I just don't know if models have any info that is related to patterns and I wish I knew the reason why. Models seem imo to be such a numbers game and climatology mixed together and sure sometimes that works great but when you see these flips especially in the winter and they seem to happen overnight then something extra has just been added to the formula. Maybe its just the nature of models and we are probably still years upon years to where models are thinking on their own which in many ways is scary but interesting as well.

Tim, I am probably not the best person to answer this either but I'll give it a shot. What I believe is that past patterns are fed into the models. Like analogs for example. A certain weather situation occurred during such and such a pattern. The bad thing is are that no two patterns rarely ever yield the same result. Remember, we are trying to use computers to predict our atmosphere which is so fluid, dynamic and complex. It's the chaos theory at work, literally! Models are upgraded from time to time to improve resolution and to try and correct biases. Over the past several years, it seems like these upgrades have hurt more then they've helped. But it's all we've got so we use them as a tool and it's really all we can do. I also believe that climatology is fed into them for whatever area it is that you are forecasting for and short term data too like satellite and weather balloon data are also used. Sometimes even ship / NOAA buoy reports. The data is more sparse obviously over our oceans then they are over land masses naturally.

My final total as of 8pm is 1.4" CVG 1.29"Boone Co mesonet got 1.56" We shall see whatever is left by the time the front gets here later tonight.

My event total is .70"

Currently 55 here in G'ville and progged for around 50 Wed morning.

Good morning! It looks like the front will be passing thru a little later then I expected. We've got a shot at 60 or so today before falling this afternoon. Winds will be breezy today up to 30 mph with the frontal passage. 40s tomorrow for the high with breezy conditions then we'll see on our weekend thread what happens there.

For next week, I am seeing two minor shortwaves along with seasonal temps.

Made top 5 in two categories for Jan 3rd

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 7:58 am Made top 5 in two categories for Jan 3rd

The top one, 1997 preceded the big super Nino of the 97-98 winter. The way this current Nina is behaving, I wonder if we go into a Nino for next winter? Just a thought...