December 2022 Weather Discussion

[young pup]

It's a shame the gfs (us model) is so awful. Big time differences on the 0z euro and gfs at hour 216. Yes I know it is 9 days out. The euro has snow around and the gfs has warm air around. The upgrade is no better shape than it was before.

[Trevor]

Kinda surprised no wind advisory issued yet. Models are advertising gusts up to 50mph. Maybe they’ll issue later.

Hi Trev,

You'll have to try the Golden Lamb sometime bro.

That place is packed with history and those like Benjamin Franklin, Harriet Beecher Stowe ("Uncle Tom's Cabin") e.g. etc have dined and lodged there.

It’s on my list and only a few minute walk from my place

Did you survive the carriage parade day? Makes for a crazy day in Lebanon.

I did! I had to work but I got lucky on timing and didn’t run into too many traffic issues. Wish I could have attended. Next year!

[tron777]

The GFS soap opera continues. 12z run is back to cutters and a SE ridge in the extended range.

[airwolf76]

The GFS soap opera continues. 12z run is back to cutters and a SE ridge in the extended range.

thats crazy. even with a big block / -NAO . you have to look at the big picture not model runs to get a better idea of what is more likely to happen

[tron777]

The GFS soap opera continues. 12z run is back to cutters and a SE ridge in the extended range.

thats crazy. even with a big block / -NAO . you have to look at the big picture not model runs to get a better idea of what is more likely to happen

Agreed 100%. Not buying the OP GFS and I haven't trusted that model in the last couple of weeks due to it's wild swings with each and every run.

[tron777]

The overall look on the 12Z Euro is similar to what we've been seeing with the biggest change with the new 12Z run is that the low that moves into the OV / Lakes that transfers its energy to the East Coast Low... that storm is later on this run. so it does not occur this weekend but rather a couple of days after that. So the pattern change would be mid month which is 12/15 at the very end of my original date range for the flip. As I've said before, I am totally good with that.

[tpweather]

The overall look on the 12Z Euro is similar to what we've been seeing with the biggest change with the new 12Z run is that the low that moves into the OV / Lakes that transfers its energy to the East Coast Low... that storm is later on this run. so it does not occur this weekend but rather a couple of days after that. So the pattern change would be mid month which is 12/15 at the very end of my original date range for the flip. As I've said before, I am totally good with that.

Les the run of the Euro may not be totally correct but I believe at this stage of the game it sees the new pattern better. Time wise is fine and again it just takes time for a major pattern change. Timing is never easy and models as we know sometimes becomes more of a hindrance as they can hint at the changes but they can be too fast in this instance and sometimes to slow. Still believe it will be the end of this week before all 3 major models are seeing similar ideas.

[tron777]

The overall look on the 12Z Euro is similar to what we've been seeing with the biggest change with the new 12Z run is that the low that moves into the OV / Lakes that transfers its energy to the East Coast Low... that storm is later on this run. so it does not occur this weekend but rather a couple of days after that. So the pattern change would be mid month which is 12/15 at the very end of my original date range for the flip. As I've said before, I am totally good with that.

Les the run of the Euro may not be totally correct but I believe at this stage of the game it sees the new pattern better. Time wise is fine and again it just takes time for a major pattern change. Timing is never easy and models as we know sometimes becomes more of a hindrance as they can hint at the changes but they can be too fast in this instance and sometimes to slow. Still believe it will be the end of this week before all 3 major models are seeing similar ideas.

Or at least 2 out of the 3 globals... Should we even look at the GFS anymore? Seriously though, I did read this morning that the Canadian Model currently is beating the Euro by 2 points in terms of model score verification for the 500 MB pattern over the Northern Hemisphere in the Day 5-7 range. The CMC and Euro have been much more in agreement as a whole too versus the GFS. It'll be a good test for the Canadian in the next week or two. We usually laugh at that model, but this blocking pattern means business and thus chaos on the models anyway. Just trying to find something for us Tim to make our lives easier but no such luck.

[dce]

The overall look on the 12Z Euro is similar to what we've been seeing with the biggest change with the new 12Z run is that the low that moves into the OV / Lakes that transfers its energy to the East Coast Low... that storm is later on this run. so it does not occur this weekend but rather a couple of days after that. So the pattern change would be mid month which is 12/15 at the very end of my original date range for the flip. As I've said before, I am totally good with that.

Les the run of the Euro may not be totally correct but I believe at this stage of the game it sees the new pattern better. Time wise is fine and again it just takes time for a major pattern change. Timing is never easy and models as we know sometimes becomes more of a hindrance as they can hint at the changes but they can be too fast in this instance and sometimes to slow. Still believe it will be the end of this week before all 3 major models are seeing similar ideas.

Or at least 2 out of the 3 globals... Should we even look at the GFS anymore? Seriously though, I did read this morning that the Canadian Model currently is beating the Euro by 2 points in terms of model score verification for the 500 MB pattern over the Northern Hemisphere in the Day 5-7 range. The CMC and Euro have been much more in agreement as a whole too versus the GFS. It'll be a good test for the Canadian in the next week or two. We usually laugh at that model, but this blocking pattern means business and thus chaos on the models anyway. Just trying to find something for us Tim to make our lives easier but no such luck.

I'm not as knowledgeable as you guys are when it comes to forecasting, but anyone with common sense would stick with the two models that have been pretty consistent in showing similar outcomes from run to run. The GFS is off it's rocker. It's always been inconsistent, but this is ridiculous. I'm going with the consistency of the Euro and CMC. But because that's the outcome I want to see, but because it's common sense.

[tron777]

The overall look on the 12Z Euro is similar to what we've been seeing with the biggest change with the new 12Z run is that the low that moves into the OV / Lakes that transfers its energy to the East Coast Low... that storm is later on this run. so it does not occur this weekend but rather a couple of days after that. So the pattern change would be mid month which is 12/15 at the very end of my original date range for the flip. As I've said before, I am totally good with that.

Les the run of the Euro may not be totally correct but I believe at this stage of the game it sees the new pattern better. Time wise is fine and again it just takes time for a major pattern change. Timing is never easy and models as we know sometimes becomes more of a hindrance as they can hint at the changes but they can be too fast in this instance and sometimes to slow. Still believe it will be the end of this week before all 3 major models are seeing similar ideas.

Or at least 2 out of the 3 globals... Should we even look at the GFS anymore? Seriously though, I did read this morning that the Canadian Model currently is beating the Euro by 2 points in terms of model score verification for the 500 MB pattern over the Northern Hemisphere in the Day 5-7 range. The CMC and Euro have been much more in agreement as a whole too versus the GFS. It'll be a good test for the Canadian in the next week or two. We usually laugh at that model, but this blocking pattern means business and thus chaos on the models anyway. Just trying to find something for us Tim to make our lives easier but no such luck.

I'm not as knowledgeable as you guys are when it comes to forecasting, but anyone with common sense would stick with the two models that have been pretty consistent in showing similar outcomes from run to run. The GFS is off it's rocker. It's always been inconsistent, but this is ridiculous. I'm going with the consistency of the Euro and CMC. But because that's the outcome I want to see, but because it's common sense.

It is common sense Doug, you're absolutely right. For the OP models, the CMC and Euro have been the most consistent and for Ensembles, it's the EPS.

[tron777]

12Z EPS continues to look good in my mind. By this weekend, we are still in that -PNA pattern but we start to transition next week (which has been our expectation from the start). By the 15th, we have ridging from AK across the top all the way to Greenland with shortwaves being forced to track underneath the monster block up top. Not a frigid pattern, but no one ever said a frigid pattern was coming. Just a more wintry one. We only need air cold enough to snow which is fine by me with what's being shown on the model.

[MVWxObserver]

12Z EPS continues to look good in my mind. By this weekend, we are still in that -PNA pattern but we start to transition next week (which has been our expectation from the start). By the 15th, we have ridging from AK across the top all the way to Greenland with shortwaves being forced to track underneath the monster block up top. Not a frigid pattern, but no one ever said a frigid pattern was coming. Just a more wintry one. We only need air cold enough to snow which is fine by me with what's being shown on the model.

Glad my folks are returning home on the 14th and then the wintry pattern can crank up to its heart-content.

[tron777]

12Z EPS continues to look good in my mind. By this weekend, we are still in that -PNA pattern but we start to transition next week (which has been our expectation from the start). By the 15th, we have ridging from AK across the top all the way to Greenland with shortwaves being forced to track underneath the monster block up top. Not a frigid pattern, but no one ever said a frigid pattern was coming. Just a more wintry one. We only need air cold enough to snow which is fine by me with what's being shown on the model.

Glad my folks are returning home on the 14th and then the wintry pattern can crank up to its heart-content.

Honestly Bro, it may work out like that.

[tron777]

Check it out guys... 12Z EPS Dec 12-19th.

EPS.gif

Last 6 runs of the Euro Weeklies Dec 19-26th - Notice the improvement for the same time period each time the model runs:





In conclusion... I originally said 12/10-12/15 and it is looking to me like Game on around the 15th onwards so we are still on track.

[tron777]

LOL @ the GFS. On the 18Z run, it's colder once again. Then, just when you think it may show a fantasy snow storm for us around the 17th, NOPE! It cuts the energy off in the SW instead. You can't make this $hit up!

[tpweather]

12Z EPS continues to look good in my mind. By this weekend, we are still in that -PNA pattern but we start to transition next week (which has been our expectation from the start). By the 15th, we have ridging from AK across the top all the way to Greenland with shortwaves being forced to track underneath the monster block up top. Not a frigid pattern, but no one ever said a frigid pattern was coming. Just a more wintry one. We only need air cold enough to snow which is fine by me with what's being shown on the model.

Great Post and we normally see the weather come from the west 99p/c of the time but a pattern sometimes sets up different and I expect since the NAO is supposed to be negative that the trough underneath the ridge will sort of retrograde from from northeast to southwest. Then how far southwest will the cold go and I believe each week even starting with later next week we will get colder for about 3-4 weeks. Sure we love the ridging on the west coast get strong but just a normal ridge can help out. Still believe a big storm or two to usher in the new pattern then after that we need to see if systems stay to far to the south and east to give us anything major. IMO still plenty of moisture to work with in the gulf of Mexico and when you start throwing moisture over the cold air we can have a huge mixture of winter weather but if we keep the southeast ridge down this will help in keeping the precip more white than ice which is fun to forecast but a pain dealing with.

[tron777]

The PNA forecast from the Euro ENS is below. The black arrow I drew on there represents December 15th.

PNA Forecast.jpg

[tpweather]

LOL @ the GFS. On the 18Z run, it's colder once again. Then, just when you think it may show a fantasy snow storm for us around the 17th, NOPE! It cuts the energy off in the SW instead. You can't make this $hit up!

Hey Les I believe I was watching Joe B on his weekly video and he was really mad about the gfs. Need to watch again but I believe he does not understand why the model seems to be horrible in the USA but does well in Europe. I believe his thought process is the pacific ocean is somehow messing with that model and has to much warmth and of course usually way to progressive with systems across the USA.

[tpweather]

The PNA forecast from the Euro ENS is below. The black arrow I drew on there represents December 15th.


PNA Forecast.jpg

That is key Les and we have talked about that for weeks and once we get above -1 and head towards neutral or even slightly positive the pattern will change.

[tron777]

12Z EPS continues to look good in my mind. By this weekend, we are still in that -PNA pattern but we start to transition next week (which has been our expectation from the start). By the 15th, we have ridging from AK across the top all the way to Greenland with shortwaves being forced to track underneath the monster block up top. Not a frigid pattern, but no one ever said a frigid pattern was coming. Just a more wintry one. We only need air cold enough to snow which is fine by me with what's being shown on the model.

Great Post and we normally see the weather come from the west 99p/c of the time but a pattern sometimes sets up different and I expect since the NAO is supposed to be negative that the trough underneath the ridge will sort of retrograde from from northeast to southwest. Then how far southwest will the cold go and I believe each week even starting with later next week we will get colder for about 3-4 weeks. Sure we love the ridging on the west coast get strong but just a normal ridge can help out. Still believe a big storm or two to usher in the new pattern then after that we need to see if systems stay to far to the south and east to give us anything major. IMO still plenty of moisture to work with in the gulf of Mexico and when you start throwing moisture over the cold air we can have a huge mixture of winter weather but if we keep the southeast ridge down this will help in keeping the precip more white than ice which is fun to forecast but a pain dealing with.

I'm still pumped up and excited Tim about what's to come. We have an active STJ to work with. TONS and I mean TONS of Pacific shortwaves will continue to come into the country underneath the block. This is because of the blocking itself causing a traffic jam in the flow ala a split jet. The polar jet is going to be forced way south under the block, it has no choice. As long as everything else cooperates that we've been talking about, the potential is 100% going to be there. If we are lucky enough to get the holy grail of teleconnections, which is: -EPO, +PNA, -NAO, and a -AO... then it's only a question of "How Much are we getting for my back yard?"

[tron777]

LOL @ the GFS. On the 18Z run, it's colder once again. Then, just when you think it may show a fantasy snow storm for us around the 17th, NOPE! It cuts the energy off in the SW instead. You can't make this $hit up!

Hey Les I believe I was watching Joe B on his weekly video and he was really mad about the gfs. Need to watch again but I believe he does not understand why the model seems to be horrible in the USA but does well in Europe. I believe his thought process is the pacific ocean is somehow messing with that model and has to much warmth and of course usually way to progressive with systems across the USA.

Either the upgrade killed it as you mentioned before, or the model just doesn't have the physics programmed into it to correctly handle this extreme block. I don't have any other explanation myself.

[tron777]

The PNA forecast from the Euro ENS is below. The black arrow I drew on there represents December 15th.


PNA Forecast.jpg

That is key Les and we have talked about that for weeks and once we get above -1 and head towards neutral or even slightly positive the pattern will change.

Exactly Tim. Neutral, weakly positive... whatever. Anything is better then it being deeply negative as it will be for this week.

[tpweather]

Same here Les and really a perfect time for the holidays as I believe for the most part we will be colder than normal with chances of snow. How much and again if one thing is hard to predict its predicting snowfall weeks or months in advance and especially around here when we have so many storms that have every possible precip type it seems.

[tpweather]

One thing we have not talked much about is over the next 7-9 days we have several chances for rain and should be enough to really help the water tables because the ground is not frozen and not much used for vegetation like you see in the spring and summer. Still looking at early next week for a bigger storm and though it may be mainly rain that could be a pattern changer and that would be on the 13th or so. We need these kind of storms and then head up into New England or Southeast Canada and sometimes you will get a low to just keep stalled there which is a good place for cold in the east except and I mentioned this quite often but when the state of Maine is warmer than normal in the winter we are usually colder than normal and when they get below normal we seem to be milder than normal. So very similar to Alaska and again not every time does this work but seen it happen to much over the years

[tron777]

We continue to wait on the warm front to moisten things up, bring in more moisture laden air so it can rain. Not much happening tonight into tomorrow other then some light drizzle or perhaps a light shower. Better chances come in Tues afternoon ending Wed morning. Then the next low comes in along the stalled front for later Thurs ending Fri morning. Then a third one by early next week... which again is the one I am planning on to usher in the more wintry pattern. So that is my current expectation from now until around the 15th.