Absolute Vorticity

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:48 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:07 pm I'm looking forward to any rain over the .25 inch mark here. 12z models are showing about 1.5 for here. Seen the snow for next week too. Not even ready for that. We are going to go from one extreme to another I have feeling.

Same here Bro

Currently 57 here in G'ville.

It will be nice if it pans out. We need the rain to settle this dust. I have some much dirt and debris in my eyes tonight it's crazy. I even put a mask on today to stop from inhailing it all. I can't remember the last time it was this dry in the fall. I seen the fall of 77 mentioned, but I was just a young kid not even a teenager so I don't remember that. But I do remember the blizzard of 78.

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:01 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:48 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:07 pm I'm looking forward to any rain over the .25 inch mark here. 12z models are showing about 1.5 for here. Seen the snow for next week too. Not even ready for that. We are going to go from one extreme to another I have feeling.

Same here Bro

Currently 57 here in G'ville.

It will be nice if it pans out. We need the rain to settle this dust. I have some much dirt and debris in my eyes tonight it's crazy. I even put a mask on today to stop from inhailing it all. I can't remember the last time it was this dry in the fall. I seen the fall of 77 mentioned, but I was just a young kid not even a teenager so I don't remember that. But I do remember the blizzard of 78.

I hear ya wxbuddy

This morning my Dad and I were gathering up leaves on our property and blowing other areas to the curb. We have about 3 1/2 Ace Hardware sacks filled to take to the curb. We used to have 2 Sugar Maples but no trees now. Still our neighbors properties have some trees and so courtesy of Ma Nature and that windstorm last Sat we had plenty lol. I wore a mask, too, as I have hay fever but the filter mask helped.

After viewing more data I am making my final rainfall call for Nicole. This is a broad brushed approach for the region.

Western Counties: 0.25"-0.50"
CVG Land / I-75 and I-71 corridors: 0.50-1"
SE Crew: 1"-2" range

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:25 am After viewing more data I am making my final rainfall call for Nicole. This is a broad brushed approach for the region.

Western Counties: 0.25"-0.50"
CVG Land / I-75 and I-71 corridors: 0.50-1"
SE Crew: 1"-2" range

Had several woodland fires in clermont County yesterday started by idiot people, so anything will be appreciated

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:14 am Had several woodland fires in clermont County yesterday started by idiot people, so anything will be appreciated

I've heard of several in Central and Eastern KY also. Most of which were supposed to be controlled burns that got out of control. Well duh... If I recall, Ohio says no burning from 6am to 6pm. We have burn bans in a lot of KY counties as you would expect.

12Z NAM giving CVG 0.79" for tomorrow's system.

I'm also wondering if models like the NAM and GFS are right with some flurries or light snow being possible Sat morning esp for Cincy on south? Need to see if we can get some mood flakes going with a weak disturbance moving thru.

12Z GFS continues to show that batch of light snow coming in Sat morning. Would love drinking some coffee Sat morning and watching some flakes fall. No accum of course since the ground and temps will be too warm but the potential of some mood flakes is there.

So in summation, this is what we've got going on:

Nicole's leftovers and cold front for tomorrow
Cold air moves in with flurries / light snow possible Sat morning
Light rain or snow possible Tues of next week
Rain / snow possible Fri of next week or cold and dry are the two model camps here.

12Z GFS coming in with 0..53" of rain at CVG with Nicole.

It appears that the trends for Tuesday's system is for it to be non phased and weak so that opens the door potentially for Friday's system to deliver.... unless the storm track is too far south (ala past foreign model runs). The GFS continues to have that keep one eye open look.

12Z CMC has the band of light snow Sat morning... the non-phased Tuesday system, then instead of Friday, the model waits until over the weekend to develop the next system.

1/2" right on the nose at CVG per the 12z Euro - Nicole's rains.

Then the Euro has the weak light snow / rain on Tues, not a big deal at all, then for Friday and beyond... the model continues to bully the pattern with dry and cold air so no storm can get going.

Hopefully AVLAND can outperform for tomorrow because after that beneficial qpf will be hard to come by as the OV remains in a dry pattern for the most part in the mid and long term

70 as of 4pm at CVG...our last 70 degree day for a while it appears. Soak it up! We get wet late tonight and tomorrow then turn colder with some mood flakes.

As far as Nicole goes, per radar the center is over Cedar Key, FL moving to the NW perhaps getting close to Tallahassee. Nicole's outer bands are beginning to impact places like Atlanta GA and Tim's Greenville hood.

Good Afternoon and had to cut the Hilton Head Golf trip short by 1 day. Yesterday we had gusts of winds over 40 so not a great golfing day. Getting some heavy rain down here in Greenville and expecting around 2 inches by Friday afternoon. Will be heading home on Sunday and I see maybe a few flakes in the air this weekend. Next week looks cold and I see a few smaller systems but to early to see if we get any light rain/snow from those systems. 4 days without looking at the weather so I am having withdraws. Hope to post more on Friday. Hopefully the local area gets in on some rains Friday but it seems like we are on the edge of light rain and some really nice rains.

Welcome back Tim! Hope you had a good time in HH nonetheless. We're getting busy here so you're coming home at a great time. I think your take on Nicole is spot on so I have kept the heavier rains East / lighter West with this system. Then we get cold and some light snow possible Sat morning. No issues of course. Tues looks non-phased. Friday GFS says possible rain / snow storm and Euro keeps us cold and dry. CMC has nothing until the weekend rain with snow NW of us. EPS has it all south and east of us. It all phases together for New England. So we've got a lot of possible outcomes esp later next week.

Hey Les. Had a great time. I will be looking over info on Friday since it will be raining down here all day. Coming back either Saturday or Sunday and excited and ready for our upcoming winter.

Hopefully for next Fri dry at least during the AM hours **knocking on wood** because have some Ace Hardware sacks filled with leaves that need to get to the curb for pickup.

Currently 59 here in G'ville.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:39 pm Hey Les. Had a great time. I will be looking over info on Friday since it will be raining down here all day. Coming back either Saturday or Sunday and excited and ready for our upcoming winter.

The early start to winter call (whether it snows or not) is a great call Tim and it's going to pan out nicely. Can we cash in is the question which we'll be working on over the next week. MJO is in 8 getting close to 1 but weakening as it does so. It's heading towards the COD. Still though, it has stayed in 8 long enough that the upcoming cold pattern will stick around for a while. Do we warm up for Thanksgiving or stay cold? We'll see what the MJO does once we get a little closer to that time period.

CB evening update... a good summation of the models for Sat morning's flurries / light snow as well as next Friday. He's even got a map for Sat morning. I wasn't even planning on making a thread for any of these systems at this time.

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=55600

A dusting certainly looks like it could happen over the weekend. For our November's of late that would be Quite an achievement . 12 to 14 days below normal temps in November, ditto. Atm , I hink we do warm up sometime during the last week of the month , whether that includes Turkey day, hard to say . Just baseing this Atm on the MJO making it to 5 or 6 and the 500mb response