Absolute Vorticity

81 / 66 at CVG so a bit more humid then it has been. A sign of impending rain chances this weekend. Euro still showing the highest chances for CVG Land late Sun / Sun night with the cold front. It looks like most guidance agrees on passing the upper low to the north so we maybe dry most of next week now come Monday morning. Best chance early next week of a shower would be the Northern counties closer to the upper low passing over S Wisc, N ILL into N IN, OH and S Mich areas thru the middle of next week. You guys are on the southside so sinking air and less humid. I am on the NW side so the same thing. As long as you're out of the clouds and influence of the upper low, your wx will be great. 60s for highs likely in areas that get clouds and light rain all day. You guys should have 70s for highs and 50s for lows. Chop 5-7 degree range off of that for where I am going. Gorgeous Fall weather for both areas. I'll get the next front towards the end of my trip that will impact the OV the week I come back sometime.

Les enjoy your vacation. No doubt fall type weather up there but for us locally going to be a longer stretch of nice weather. If we clear out in the middle of the week would not be surprised to see some outlying area flirting with upper 40's.

BTW first frost advisories for northwest Montana and also southwest N. Dakota over the weekend. Nothing new up there as you expect to start seeing these advisories in mid-Sept.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:55 pm Les enjoy your vacation. No doubt fall type weather up there but for us locally going to be a longer stretch of nice weather. If we clear out in the middle of the week would not be surprised to see some outlying area flirting with upper 40's.

Thanks Tim! Can't wait! I would love for the Euro solution to be correct! Mainly dry until Sat night (after the tournament's over) then the weather goes to crap. But we'll be outta there by then! Otherwise... looking very nice up there!

Forecast for Bemidji, MN which is 20 mins West of Cass Lake and the main town in the area.

Saturday Sunny. Highs 65 to 70. West winds up to 10 mph.
Saturday Night Clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Sunday Sunny. Highs 70 to 75.
Sunday Night Clear. Lows 45 to 50.
Monday And Monday Night Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows 50 to 55.
Tuesda y Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Tuesday Night And Wednesday Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in the mid 50s.
Wednesday Night And Thursday Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Highs 70 to 75. Lows in the mid 50s.

Radar coming to life like we expected this afternoon over Alabama and Mississippi.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:19 pm Radar coming to life like we expected this afternoon over Alabama and Mississippi.

I like the slower arrival time that the Euro has been showing (that the GFS finally caved into the other day lol). Only isolated action over TN and S KY. Main crust of the moisture still well down south with the cold front still well NW over Western Upper Mich SW thru Wisc and Iowa. We are in no mans land until both areas of rain get closer. So that buys people time with only isolated to scattered activity on Sat. Sun, esp late is the best time to get wet. Front's arrival will be timed perfectly with peak heating. Not too concerned with severe since the air mass is very tropical in nature and a lot of clouds too. CAPE is low. Shear is low. Just the usual moderate to pockets of hvy rains kind of thing. Nothing remotely close to the torrential rains some have received. Still like the 1" or less call.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:26 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:19 pm Radar coming to life like we expected this afternoon over Alabama and Mississippi.

I like the slower arrival time that the Euro has been showing (that the GFS finally caved into the other day lol). Only isolated action over TN and S KY. Main crust of the moisture still well down south with the cold front still well NW over Western Upper Mich SW thru Wisc and Iowa. We are in no mans land until both areas of rain get closer. So that buys people time with only isolated to scattered activity on Sat. Sun, esp late is the best time to get wet. Front's arrival will be timed perfectly with peak heating. Not too concerned with severe since the air mass is very tropical in nature and a lot of clouds too. CAPE is low. Shear is low. Just the usual moderate to pockets of hvy rains kind of thing. Nothing remotely close to the torrential rains some have received. Still like the 1" or less call.

I believe the torrential rains will be a lot more isolated this weekend. However if you happen to get under a thundershower for an hour or two you can get a quick inch with no problems. Still tropical like rains and like Les mentioned the severe part is lower but rainfall can still be heavy in isolated spots. Not even ruling out a thundershower Saturday afternoon but that seems to be further north as they may end up with more sunshine at times.

Brian had a nice video today. He was talking about later in the month and October where we could see more cutoff lows and getting later into the fall season these lows though very hard to pinpoint even a few days out can bring a nice shot of cool air if you are in the correct location. Will this be the pattern for much of the fall into the winter season?

The only flood watches down here is the central part of N.Carolina. That is several hundred miles away from Greenville. I still expect some heavier rains to fall down here and of course in the mountains where totals can be heavier at times with the uplift of the mountains. So I can see some isolated flood watches over the weekend but not quite as severe that the models showed earlier in the week. Outside at the moment though it looks very tropical and much different than the lovely day we had on Thursday. Good thing only 9 more months down here and then I can start talking about north central Wisconsin weather lol. I can never shut up about the weather

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:53 pm Brian had a nice video today. He was talking about later in the month and October where we could see more cutoff lows and getting later into the fall season these lows though very hard to pinpoint even a few days out can bring a nice shot of cool air if you are in the correct location. Will this be the pattern for much of the fall into the winter season?

As long as we have cold air in place, slow moving systems, gradient patterns like overrunning or a good old fashioned upper low can bring huge snows! Jan 1996, that bliz that got the East Coast, was a forecast failure for Mets here due to the upper low allowing the system to move more slowly as a whole. Even with a system crashing into the West Coast, which would typically kick the system out and we would not have received a foot plus in Cincinnati. The upper low closed off and gave us an extra 24 hours of snow that we otherwise would never have had. Also drew in Atlantic moisture which is hard to come by West of the Apps. We got Gulf moisture on the front side and ATL moisture at the peak and at the end. It made for a prolonged deformation zone! I miss a good ole Gulf Low. We used to get those in the 80s and 90s. Hard to come by. Haven't had a good clipper pattern since 2010 either. Winters of yore...

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:57 pm The only flood watches down here is the central part of N.Carolina. That is several hundred miles away from Greenville. I still expect some heavier rains to fall down here and of course in the mountains where totals can be heavier at times with the uplift of the mountains. So I can see some isolated flood watches over the weekend but not quite as severe that the models showed earlier in the week. Outside at the moment though it looks very tropical and much different than the lovely day we had on Thursday. Good thing only 9 more months down here and then I can start talking about north central Wisconsin weather lol. I can never shut up about the weather

Are you going with 1-2" for your hood down there? Seems realistic to me.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:01 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:57 pm The only flood watches down here is the central part of N.Carolina. That is several hundred miles away from Greenville. I still expect some heavier rains to fall down here and of course in the mountains where totals can be heavier at times with the uplift of the mountains. So I can see some isolated flood watches over the weekend but not quite as severe that the models showed earlier in the week. Outside at the moment though it looks very tropical and much different than the lovely day we had on Thursday. Good thing only 9 more months down here and then I can start talking about north central Wisconsin weather lol. I can never shut up about the weather

Are you going with 1-2" for your hood down there? Seems realistic to me.

I believe that is a good call Les. Again with tropical moisture I never rule out some heavier rain totals but once again more isolated in nature.

Hey Tim... fantasy GFS runs from time to time (see 12Z) keeps showing some snow in the mountains of BC Canada towards the end of the month. Love seeing that process starting... (as long as it is correct)

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:08 pm Hey Tim... fantasy GFS runs from time to time (see 12Z) keeps showing some snow in the mountains of BC Canada towards the end of the month. Love seeing that process starting... (as long as it is correct)

Les I also noticed some snows just north of Maine. Not that I was looking for snow lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:08 pm Hey Tim... fantasy GFS runs from time to time (see 12Z) keeps showing some snow in the mountains of BC Canada towards the end of the month. Love seeing that process starting... (as long as it is correct)

Les I also noticed some snows just north of Maine. Not that I was looking for snow lol.

Yes! I saw that too. I hope the leaf color up there this year will be as pretty as last year (MN). Seeing that way earlier then we get it here makes me that much more pumped up for winter. There will be a renewed sense of forecasting from me upon my return. We'll get that winter thoughts thread kicked into high gear!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:16 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:08 pm Hey Tim... fantasy GFS runs from time to time (see 12Z) keeps showing some snow in the mountains of BC Canada towards the end of the month. Love seeing that process starting... (as long as it is correct)

Les I also noticed some snows just north of Maine. Not that I was looking for snow lol.

Yes! I saw that too. I hope the leaf color up there this year will be as pretty as last year (MN). Seeing that way earlier then we get it here makes me that much more pumped up for winter. There will be a renewed sense of forecasting from me upon my return. We'll get that winter thoughts thread kicked into high gear!

Same here Les. Returning on Monday and will be at home until Oct 28th. Heading back down here for Halloween and then a nice golf trip to Hilton Head but then will be home on the 12th of Nov and time to get ready for winter.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:19 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:16 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:08 pm Hey Tim... fantasy GFS runs from time to time (see 12Z) keeps showing some snow in the mountains of BC Canada towards the end of the month. Love seeing that process starting... (as long as it is correct)

Les I also noticed some snows just north of Maine. Not that I was looking for snow lol.

Yes! I saw that too. I hope the leaf color up there this year will be as pretty as last year (MN). Seeing that way earlier then we get it here makes me that much more pumped up for winter. There will be a renewed sense of forecasting from me upon my return. We'll get that winter thoughts thread kicked into high gear!

Same here Les. Returning on Monday and will be at home until Oct 28th. Heading back down here for Halloween and then a nice golf trip to Hilton Head but then will be home on the 12th of Nov and time to get ready for winter.

Good deal! Once I'm done with training (in early Oct?) I'll be working 6am to 3pm so I'll be off earlier for big events and / or up earlier for big events!

SoCal enjoying a Friday night drink

And we're off!!! Left at 4:45. 900 miles and 15 hour's to go lol

Good Morning and nearly an inch of rain here in Greenville this morning but expecting a break and may turn out to be a rather dry day after this first batch moves through. Still with tropical air in place sunshine later could help in developing more showers and thundershowers. At home it looks dry this morning and we seem to be in between systems though folks especially south and east could see some rain develop later today. Sunday has the best shot of rainfall and even getting .5 in mid-Sept is nice with cooler and drier conditions to follow. A few days of really nice fall weather before we warm up and this could end up being a longer stretch of above normal temps so many days will see 80's though the humidity will not be horrible like you see in the summer.

Fog burning off in ILL and now sunny skies.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:37 am Fog burning off in ILL and now sunny skies.

Les it looks like you should run into some rain mid-day or so but should be short in nature and after that smooth sailing

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:37 am Fog burning off in ILL and now sunny skies.

Les it looks like you should run into some rain mid-day or so but should be short in nature and after that smooth sailing

Yeah. At some point I'll cross over the front that Cincy will get Sun night.

Still raining in Greenville but starting to lighten up. Around 1.25 so far but a decent break this afternoon

In Wisc just NW of Madison. Rain is coming as we near the cold front.