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Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:13 am
by tron777
The monsoon rains that were occurring where hammering New Mexico and parts of CO for the most part. California really needs it as well as AZ and it just doesn't look to be the case as you said Tim due to drought and the ridge's position. TX could use more help too.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:05 am
by Bgoney
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:00 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:52 am
Probably straight line wind damage mixed in along with tornado damage throughout Northern clermont
From what I have seen on TV that looks to be the case. The video from Goshen no doubt has the look of tornado damage. I believe the NWS heads out today and we get a report from them rather quickly. Very few people hurt and that is the main take away from this system. Once we get into July tornado's are less likely to happen and even yesterday not everything was lining up for a tornado but again mother nature has the last say.
Watching radar at that time yesterday , there was an outflow boundary from the storms that past just to our NE that made it to Northern clermont about the same time the line of storms hit that area. Did that have a hand in the tornado in that area? Quite possibly.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:13 am
by tron777
So far, clouds are keeping temps down today esp over NKY. 90 looks doubtful unless the clouds disperse very quickly. :
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:23 am
by Trevor
Prelim EF2 rating.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:27 am
by tron777
Another survey is being conducted in N Brown Co as well.
Code: Select all
Public Information Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
942 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022
...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED FOR BROWN COUNTY OHIO...
Due to recent severe weather across our area, the National
Weather Service office in Wilmington OH will conduct a storm
survey today in coordination with Brown County Emergency
Management in northern Brown County Ohio. The survey is in
relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area
on July 6th 2022.
Tree and minor structural damage in and around the Lake Lorelei area
will be investigated to determine if a tornado touched down briefly
in this area.
A final assessment including results of the survey are expected
to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement
by Thursday evening.
The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at http://www.weather.gov/iln
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:31 am
by tron777
12Z NAM gives CVG a good soaking, up to 1" Fri afternoon and evening. 1-2" for I-70 Posters!
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:46 am
by Bgoney
Base velocity at 3:08 yesterday
Screenshot_20220707-104422_Chrome.jpg
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:41 am
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:05 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:00 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:52 am
Probably straight line wind damage mixed in along with tornado damage throughout Northern clermont
From what I have seen on TV that looks to be the case. The video from Goshen no doubt has the look of tornado damage. I believe the NWS heads out today and we get a report from them rather quickly. Very few people hurt and that is the main take away from this system. Once we get into July tornado's are less likely to happen and even yesterday not everything was lining up for a tornado but again mother nature has the last say.
Watching radar at that time yesterday , there was an outflow boundary from the storms that past just to our NE that made it to Northern clermont about the same time the line of storms hit that area. Did that have a hand in the tornado in that area? Quite possibly.
I would agree. Timing can be everything and my guess in my area of northern Kentucky that timing of the outflow and when the storms hit produce the very heavy rains for an extended period. We always try and look at the weather on a wider scope but sometimes the outcome becomes very localized.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:43 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:31 am
12Z NAM gives CVG a good soaking, up to 1" Fri afternoon and evening. 1-2" for I-70 Posters!Les that looks possible as a nice little system coming through here and should be some extra lift and for folks to the north at this point the timing looks best for them for heavier rainfall but this looks to be a day that the storms will continue to hang around through the evening. I hope folks that need the rain get in on the action.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:58 am
by tron777
I could use one more round. JP needs a break. GFS timing wise agrees and it appears that a lovely weekend is on tap with lower humidity and normal temps.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:14 pm
by MVWxObserver
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:58 am
I could use one more round. JP needs a break. GFS timing wise agrees and it appears that a lovely weekend is on tap with lower humidity and normal temps.
I'm good to go until next week, too.
Got a combo 2.50" over the Tues/Wed period.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:53 pm
by Bgoney
Nephew lives off of Branch hill Guinea pike about 5 miles west of Goshen and just east of Loveland area and said there are numerous trees down in twisted directions , most likely tornado damage
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:13 pm
by tron777
12Z Euro agrees with the NAM rainfall amounts wise for Fri afternoon and evening.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:14 pm
by Bgoney
Back to slight risk for tomorrow from spc
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:17 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:14 pm
Back to slight risk for tomorrow from spc
Should be a similar set up to what we had on Wed. Wind and an isolated tornado possible, low risk for hail.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:19 pm
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:17 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:14 pm
Back to slight risk for tomorrow from spc
Should be a similar set up to what we had on Wed. Wind and an isolated tornado possible, low risk for hail.
Ohio Valley region...
Areas of storms associated with an MCV are forecast over southern IL
and IN Friday morning, and are expected to continue east near a warm
front. Strong instability is forecast to develop south of the front
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and mid 70s F dewpoints. Lift
associated with the potential MCV is likely to initiate new
convection, which will benefit from the enhanced shear. This could
be in the form of a new MCS with damaging wind threat, with a
supercell or two embedded given favorable low-level shear along the
boundary.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:31 pm
by tron777
Models might be wrong.. do we get wet or stay dry this evening? See Indy radar for weakening, non severe area of rain. For tomorrow, the 18Z HRRR pushes convection in from IN by midday tomorrow. Then we may see a second round if we can recover by the evening hours as the front pushes in.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:46 pm
by Bgoney
Good to see that rain for at least parts of the more severe drought areas in Central and Southern Illinois/Indiana. Not a drought buster by any means but a good drink for the farmers
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:39 pm
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:31 pm
Models might be wrong.. do we get wet or stay dry this evening? See Indy radar for weakening, non severe area of rain. For tomorrow, the 18Z HRRR pushes convection in from IN by midday tomorrow. Then we may see a second round if we can recover by the evening hours as the front pushes in.
This seems to be the trend, it all depends how far north the warm front/boundary advances to the north in regards to severe
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:55 pm
by tron777
It's petering out so I will keep myself dry until tomorrow.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:40 pm
by young pup
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:58 am
I could use one more round. JP needs a break. GFS timing wise agrees and it appears that a lovely weekend is on tap with lower humidity and normal temps.
Yep, need a little break. More than happy to share with everyone else.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:29 am
by tron777
Radar already is looking busy esp over ILL and IN. It is that activity that should move into our hoods around midday or so.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:10 am
by tron777
Not sure how much of a severe threat we'll see today due to ongoing convection that will be moving in soon. Clusters of showers and t-storms appear to be in the offing this afternoon so I don't think the atmosphere will recover a bunch or have a ton of CAPE. Severe threat is low IMO because of the early arrival of the rain.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:35 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:10 am
Not sure how much of a severe threat we'll see today due to ongoing convection that will be moving in soon. Clusters of showers and t-storms appear to be in the offing this afternoon so I don't think the atmosphere will recover a bunch or have a ton of CAPE. Severe threat is low IMO because of the early arrival of the rain.
Good morning Les. I agree the most likely area for severe weather will be further south imo. Still can get gusty winds and heavy rain at times but severe weather hopefully will remain low. Do we get several rounds of rainfall today into early Saturday. These fronts can be slow moving this time of year and we really could use a good 1-2 inches of rainfall followed by some drier air for the weekend.
Re: July 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:37 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:35 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:10 am
Not sure how much of a severe threat we'll see today due to ongoing convection that will be moving in soon. Clusters of showers and t-storms appear to be in the offing this afternoon so I don't think the atmosphere will recover a bunch or have a ton of CAPE. Severe threat is low IMO because of the early arrival of the rain.
Good morning Les. I agree the most likely area for severe weather will be further south imo. Still can get gusty winds and heavy rain at times but severe weather hopefully will remain low. Do we get several rounds of rainfall today into early Saturday. These fronts can be slow moving this time of year and we really could use a good 1-2 inches of rainfall followed by some drier air for the weekend.
Good morning Tim! I def agree on an inch plus for rain by the looks of the current radar picture. Just what the Dr ordered! Next chance is Tues before normal temps take over for a bit later next week. Still see no sustained big heat at this time.