Absolute Vorticity

Adding to the concern.....this is not good. Now a 45% chance of sig tor across SW Ohio.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:38 am Adding to the concern.....this is not good. Now a 45% chance of sig tor across SW Ohio.

That's a bullseye for you, mike. Geez

I could see an upgrade to enhanced being needed right over the tri-state in the coming hours.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:47 am I could see an upgrade to enhanced being needed right over the tri-state in the coming hours.

I agree Trev and sort of been my thinking with this system. Just trying to get the correct location was the main concern.

Been mostly sunny here for a little while now. The sky cover at least IMBY looks good for heating right now. We will see increasing clouds probably as we approach midday so our window to heat up is limited. However this is June so it doesn't take much sun to prime the atmosphere. We wait and see!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:01 am Been mostly sunny here for a little while now. The sky cover at least IMBY looks good for heating right now. We will see increasing clouds probably as we approach midday so our window to heat up is limited. However this is June so it doesn't take much sun to prime the atmosphere. We wait and see!

Les you hit the nail on the head. June and really you don't need full sun to prime the atmosphere. Matter of fact I have seen mostly cloudy days in June and July where some decent severe weather broke out. The sky has that hazy look to it and that usually is the sign of some action for later today.

CAPE is building nicely S of the warm front. 1000-2000 J/kg over Central KY.

Just a quick side note not relating to today's weather. Queensland,Australia is getting some of the coldest temps in nearly 100 years. Have not seen this on the National Media but they reported Texas is hot today.

LOU's dew is up to 70 now. 61 for CVG. Warm front is lurking just off to our SW still.... but slowly getting closer. The bulk shear is very impressive with the MCS... 40-60 knot range and helicity is around 200 so some decent spin as well. All of these values are immediately ahead of the MCS so still well off to our West at this time. Next SPC update will come out at 12:30pm so we'll see if Trev's Enhanced call is there or not.

Nice update from the boys regarding severe potential this afternoon/evening:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An active afternoon and evening is expected across the Ohio
Valley, with the risk for all severe hazards and possibly
isolated flash flooding as well.

At 14Z...infrared satellite imagery indicated a MCV over
Illinois, showing some signs of weakening as it was moving east.
A mid-level shortwave was also located to the northwest of the
MCV. Meanwhile, at the surface, a stalled boundary was located
across northern Kentucky, and will lift northward through the
day as surface low pressure develops/deepens to our west.

There's still some uncertainty with the evolution and timing of
convection this afternoon, with different guidance suites
providing some different details. But there is consensus that
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, most likely in the
vicinity of the northward moving warm front and also instigated
by the MCV (or what's left of it by then). The most likely
timing for convective initiation looks to be in the 2 to 4 pm
time frame. Initial convection may take on a supercellular
mode. Then, as the low/shortwave get closer in the late
afternoon, additional and possibly widespread convection,
perhaps eventually favoring a linear mode, looks to move from
west to east across the CWA into the evening.

In addition to the aforementioned mid-level/surface features,
instability/buoyancy and shear considerations would favor
organized convection capable of producing all hazards. There
does look to be a tight gradient of CAPE, perhaps focusing
over the far northern reaches of our CWA and perhaps helping to
determine the northern extent of the severe risk -- but one
always has to be leery of activity within/near the gradient,
not just to the south of it. So essentially the entire CWA has
a risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes with any initial, supercellular convection. And then
as convection turns more linear, damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes will continue to be threats into the evening. Finally,
storms will be efficient rainfall producers that could lead to
localized flash flooding, particularly any areas that receive
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall/training convection.

Hazy as Tim mentioned earlier but still a decent amount of sunshine here right now as temps continue to rise thru the 70s. Warm front is knocking on CVG's door.

77 / 64 right now at CVG with ESE winds as the warm front pushes in.

FWIW Reed Timmer hyping our potential regional outbreak. Saying he wished he would have chased it. LOL

Dew up to 67 at CVG

1008 MB low over South Central ILL will continue to deepen and move to the east along the warm front axis. That puts us close to the target zone for action. The triple point is going to be a close call for our local area and that does make you take a pause for concern for tornadic t-storms. Now folks... as you know, we do our best to try and not hype up anything because as everyone of you knows, there is never any guarantee in weather. However, for those that have been around for a while, these warm fronts that have an MCS tracking along them, they must be watched closely.

Tight, tight instability gradient here and you can clearly see where the warm front is.

What's left of the MCS is approaching Central IN and the I-65 corridor. We need to watch the radar carefully over the next couple of hours especially West and SW of our local area.

Unless I am having a web browser issue... still waiting on the SPC to update. They're late.

80 / 69 imby right now...

SPC has updated now... no changes. Still a slight risk with a 5% TOR area, and 15% for wind and hail.

79/64 here

Can I cry uncle? I picked up another 0.15 inches of rain last night for a total so far of 2 inches even. I don't need any more for a few days.

BOOM! Here we go!

Mesoscale Discussion 1089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022

Areas affected...The Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 081738Z - 081945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe weather, including a few
tornadoes, will increase in the coming hours for portions of the
Ohio River Valley. A watch will likely be needed to address this
potential.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon observations show a surface low gradually
deepening as it translates east towards the OH River Valley region.
Ahead of this low, a surface warm front is identified in both
surface observations as well as GOES visible imagery in the form of
a northward-advancing cumulus field. A diffuse, but discernible,
cold front is also noted advancing eastward with the low. Although
instability north of this boundary remains marginal, daytime heating
(modulated to a degree by cloud cover) and northward advection of
mid/upper 60s dewpoints have bolstered MLCAPE values to near 1000
J/kg. This instability is sufficient for deep convection (evidenced
by a few ongoing thunderstorms along the front) despite some
lingering inhibition. The northward advance of the warm front should
allow favorable buoyancy to spread as far north as the lower half of
IN/OH by mid/late afternoon.

Aloft, a seasonally strong upper-jet is supporting 40-50 knots of
effective bulk shear both along the warm front and across the warm
sector to the south. Considerable veering in the lowest 2-3 km is
noted in regional VWPs within the warm frontal zone with a nearly
unidirectional flow field above this layer. This hodograph structure
will support the potential for supercells that may pose all hazards,
especially along the surface warm front and near the surface low
where low-level SRH will be maximized and storm residence time may
be adequate to realize the favorable environment. Initially discrete
storms appears likely with a gradual transition to clusters and/or a
few line segments possible as storms interact along the boundary
(though when this transition will occur this afternoon/evening is
uncertain). Regardless, the increase in severe potential is
sufficient to warrant a watch in the coming hours.

Radar showing some scattered cells over S IN and a few showers over NKY now too.

Dewpoint up to 70 now at CVG and 71 at Lunken.