Absolute Vorticity

Late morning update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
We are currently in a lull as the initial batch of heavy rain
associated with isentropic lift has moved northeast. Minor
flooding has required the issuance of flood advisories around
I-71 where rainfall approached 3 inches in spots.

However, additional showers as well as thunderstorms will pivot
into the area this afternoon as low pressure moves into
southern counties. Instability will be modest with tall, mainly
skinny CAPE. Low level wind fields will generally be light but
have good turning. Severe threat does not look too impressive,
although cannot rule out a local enhancement in wind fields that
would allow some stronger storms to form. Potential for heavy
rain looks a bit better. Precipitable water is forecast over
1.25 and some training will be possible mainly near/north of an
east-west oriented occluded front that will be extending east
from the approaching low. Have issued a flood watch through
midnight along I-71 to highlight the localized flood threat.

Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s again along and north of
I-70. Elsewhere will likely warm up a bit more but no higher
than lower 70s.

Good Morning and some folks did well overnight and maybe a little too much and others got very little including Louisville. Expect most folks today will get in on some rainfall and some of it heavy at times. I agree the severe threat looks to be further south but always if you get a thunderstorm one can once in awhile get severe for a brief period. Next week a preview of summer but where will the low affecting us today end up next week and will it retrograde and how far east will that be. Big player in terms of us staying in the low 80's and humidity staying in tact or upper 80's and more humidity.

I'm up to 66 now. Skies are a bit brighter now but not really expecting much sunshine today. We'll see a few peaks of it as the low approaches. We'll see if we can crack 70 before storms fire again this afternoon.

Seeing a bit of sun every now and again. This should only aide in storm development this afternoon. We've got CAPE values now ranging from 500-1500 J/kg (N to S) across the OV. The low is approaching now so it is only a matter of time.

68 / 64 now at CVG. Convective temp on the 12Z sounding from ILN is missing today. It does show a max high at ILN of 72 degrees.

Action beginning to pop now over NKY. Decent looking cell between Owenton and Dry Ridge attm.

12Z GFS continues to push the rain out for a dry Sat afternoon in most areas. Cloudy and cool so let's see if the Euro happens to help us out any. It's been the slowest the entire time and has been my preferred solution too unfortunately.

That cell (non severe) is going to cross I-75 mainly to the S of Williamstown for the heaviest rains and impacting areas like Mason and Cordova in S Grant co.

EDIT: If it holds together, Pendleton Co and locations such as Butler, perhaps Falmouth would be next.

Watching another cell now as well along the River just E of Madison IN. Cells will continue to fire and we'll see bands of heavy rain, gusty winds, thunder, lightning, and perhaps even some small hail as the afternoon wears on. An isolated severe cell is possible as well as localized flooding, (per the Flood watch in effect)

Radar is filing in and lighting up in a hurry now...

As of 1pm, CVG checking in with 72 / 63

69/64 here in my hood. Seeing some brighter sky towards my south.

Had some thunder earlier. Currently splitting the uprights with rainfall locally in my hood. It won't last of course.

More thunder from those cells to my NW.

EDIT: Light rain now.... here we go!

EDIT #2: Now heavy rain.... should pick up a quick couple tenths of an inch plus from this cell.

New MD - no watch expected

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0674.html

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 2:05 pm New MD - no watch expected

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0674.html

I agree... cannot get enough heating / instability. Too much junk convection. It's going to turn into more of a flooding issue then anything else.

Pea size hail at the moment

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri May 06, 2022 2:25 pm Pea size hail at the moment

Sunny now here, but more thunder with the next cell poised to move in soon. I was hoping someone would see some hail. Figured if we could get a couple of stronger cells with the approach of the cold air in the upper levels from the surface low, we'd see some. Freezing levels are low today.

Those next line of cells to our West should be interesting Tim. Sun has warmed me back up and it is humid too. Event total for today now at 1.4" for my hood.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Bracken County in northern Kentucky...
Southern Campbell County in northern Kentucky...
Northeastern Grant County in northern Kentucky...
Southern Kenton County in northern Kentucky...
Pendleton County in northern Kentucky...
Southwestern Clermont County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 500 PM EDT.

* At 150 PM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain
across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible.
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

We may see more of that issued shortly in the other band that keeps training further to the West over SE IN and Western parts of NKY.

CVG hit 73 today before that cell went thru. Awaiting the next cell coming in from Rising Sun. I may catch a piece of that one if it moves NE.

Looks like at least a couple of flooding reports over in Clermont Co.

Les plenty of action left this afternoon into the evening. If you see the sun come out for 10-15 minutes at your house I would expect a nice shower or thundershower to happen shortly. They are no doubt gaining in numbers this afternoon as you would expect.

Cells are weakening it looks like as they move into my hood. So much for that! I'm good on the rain though for sure. Gonna need a few days to dry out.