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Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:09 am
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:57 am
Up to 50 now as of 10am at the Airport, so let's see how high we go.
Beautiful out, not sure what high was predicted, can we make 55?
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:18 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:09 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:57 am
Up to 50 now as of 10am at the Airport, so let's see how high we go.
Beautiful out, not sure what high was predicted, can we make 55?
I originally had 60 for CVG many days ago, but backed off when models trended east and cooled us down to L50s. The front is closing in on us down here so I don't know if CVG can hit 55. It'll be close. Could see 55 to 60 in our Eastern counties though for sure.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:32 am
by weatherbeast45107
Snowing and 34 just south east of Indianapolis
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:09 am
by weatherbeast45107
29 and a dusting of snow northwest of Indianapolis
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:18 am
by BookNerdCarp
IMBY
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:20 am
by MVWxObserver
32 and light snow here in Greenville.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:28 am
by tron777
0.15" QPF for CVG from the 12Z GFS.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:45 am
by dce
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:57 am
Time for a lawn chair, popcorn, and a good drink to watch the festivities unfold! LOL
You're in a good spot. Have been for a few years now. I hope you get 4+out of this!
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:16 pm
by tron777
54 here so far as I await the frontal passage.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:27 pm
by tron777
Winds have switched to the west so the front probably just passed. I would expect temps to begin dropping here rather shortly.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:30 pm
by tron777
2-4" and bad roads being reported in NW AR. Models are under doing the beginning stages of this system IMO.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:32 pm
by tron777
Watch that band of snow over NW ARK, S MO getting into S ILL. We need to see if that can work its way in here before the system pulls too far east.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:35 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:30 pm
2-4" and bad roads being reported in NW AR. Models are under doing the beginning stages of this system IMO.
I agree Les and always thought the moisture was underdone. That will no doubt have an affect on totals to our southeast. A cold front along with a good surge of moisture in March can lead to higher precip totals. I still see some 8 inch totals in eastern Ky with this system. I know most models are going with the 3-5 or 4-6 and yes a more general accumulation but some areas will be under those heavier bands that can produce 1-2 inches an hour.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:39 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:35 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:30 pm
2-4" and bad roads being reported in NW AR. Models are under doing the beginning stages of this system IMO.
I agree Les and always thought the moisture was underdone. That will no doubt have an affect on totals to our southeast. A cold front along with a good surge of moisture in March can lead to higher precip totals. I still see some 8 inch totals in eastern Ky with this system. I know most models are going with the 3-5 or 4-6 and yes a more general accumulation but some areas will be under those heavier bands that can produce 1-2 inches an hour.
I absolutely like 4-8" over Eastern KY and SE Ohio as well as WV. Still going with 2" for my hood and CVG. Watching trends and mesoscale analysis. There is tremendous 700 MB frontogenic forcing over NW AR with that band of snow so it's little mesoscale features like that we need to track. Models will not do a good job with those types of things.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:47 pm
by Bgoney
Sunny and 60 in Indian Hill
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:49 pm
by Spacejunk
Topped out at 46.3 in Oxford at 12:30, temps now dropping at 45.1.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:00 pm
by tpweather
The best thing that can happen is for the front to the really start to slow down over the next 4 hours or so. What Les mentioned on radar is the snow in northwest Arkansas and that is moving into southcentral Missouri and also southern Illinois. Would love to see this trend continue over the next 4 hour.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:01 pm
by weatherbeast45107
A solid 2 inches and 27 degrees here in Bloomington Illinois
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:12 pm
by tron777
12Z Euro has 0.14" for CVG.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:13 pm
by tron777
weatherbeast45107 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:01 pm
A solid 2 inches and 27 degrees here in Bloomington Illinois
Appreciate your pics and reports upstream today!
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:13 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:00 pm
The best thing that can happen is for the front to the really start to slow down over the next 4 hours or so. What Les mentioned on radar is the snow in northwest Arkansas and that is moving into southcentral Missouri and also southern Illinois. Would love to see this trend continue over the next 4 hour.
Would love to see things slow down...absolutely. It would indicate a stronger system should it occur.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:24 pm
by tron777
55 as of 1pm at CVG, Batesville, IN 37 and Richmond 34 in our NW CWA.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:27 pm
by cloudy72
Think I just peaked here - was 49 now down to 47.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:28 pm
by tron777
Overcast is slowly taking over, seeing less of the sun although some is still getting thru. We are probably about peaked here as well.
Re: Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:43 pm
by cloudy72
Yeah completely OVC here - temp down to 45.