Absolute Vorticity

Also wanted to add that these little clippers will be hard to forecast and models can change quickly on how intense they may get so something to watch over the next few days.

Balmy 45 here today

42 here today, down to 36 now. Going to refreeze big time tonight with lows in the teens. The big thaw will continue with highs in the 40s thru Fri then dropping into the 30s this weekend behind the clipper.

SB Weekend system on the 18Z GFS is still a disjointed mess. You've got the surface low off the East Coast and the upper low over SC. Nice storm for the fishes I guess.

42 for a high but already back down to 32

For those interested, The OSU is hosting the annual Severe Weather symposium on Fri 3/11. For info and to register, just click on the link below:

https://u.osu.edu/metclub/2022-symposium/

Fairly typical Feb weather temperature wise the next 14-17 days . Ensembles are in good agreement with typical few days of Feb warmth before cold fronts bring a few days of sharp cold , rinse repeat. Precip type depends of course on Low tracks. I think during the last week of Feb we could see a nice warm spell heading into March especially if the MJO gets deeper into phase 3 headed to 4 if that happens i expect a strong SE ridge to develop during that time

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:45 pm Fairly typical Feb weather temperature wise the next 14-17 days . Ensembles are in good agreement with typical few days of Feb warmth before cold fronts bring a few days of sharp cold , rinse repeat. Precip type depends of course on Low tracks. I think during the last week of Feb we could see a nice warm spell heading into March especially if the MJO gets deeper into phase 3 headed to 4 if that happens i expect a strong SE ridge to develop during that time

Phase 3 is cold in March during a Nina, but Phase 4 is an all out blow torch! With an active STJ, should Phase 4 occur, maybe some severe wx to get things kicked off this spring? I am on the idea of what you said. Seasonal temps. A few cold days, a few mild days. I think the back bone of winter is done as far as sustained cold and sustained snowy patterns go. We can 100% still receive wintry weather for the next 4-6 weeks should the right storm tracks occur again as you mentioned. Still seeing hints of snow and nice snows too on some GFS long range runs so always worth keeping one eye open for sure this time of year.

18Z GFS right on cue with my above post for 2/19! That time period has been showing up on and off for a while.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:50 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:45 pm Fairly typical Feb weather temperature wise the next 14-17 days . Ensembles are in good agreement with typical few days of Feb warmth before cold fronts bring a few days of sharp cold , rinse repeat. Precip type depends of course on Low tracks. I think during the last week of Feb we could see a nice warm spell heading into March especially if the MJO gets deeper into phase 3 headed to 4 if that happens i expect a strong SE ridge to develop during that time

Phase 3 is cold in March during a Nina, but Phase 4 is an all out blow torch! With an active STJ, should Phase 4 occur, maybe some severe wx to get things kicked off this spring? I am on the idea of what you said. Seasonal temps. A few cold days, a few mild days. I think the back bone of winter is done as far as sustained cold and sustained snowy patterns go. We can 100% still receive wintry weather for the next 4-6 weeks should the right storm tracks occur again as you mentioned. Still seeing hints of snow and nice snows too on some GFS long range runs so always worth keeping one eye open for sure this time of year.

Yes , and I had late FEB early March 2012 in mind when i was typing, with similar atmospheric conditions, I'm sure everyone remembers that time period!!!!! But lets get through the next couple weeks of posssible winter weather first

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:57 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:50 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:45 pm Fairly typical Feb weather temperature wise the next 14-17 days . Ensembles are in good agreement with typical few days of Feb warmth before cold fronts bring a few days of sharp cold , rinse repeat. Precip type depends of course on Low tracks. I think during the last week of Feb we could see a nice warm spell heading into March especially if the MJO gets deeper into phase 3 headed to 4 if that happens i expect a strong SE ridge to develop during that time

Phase 3 is cold in March during a Nina, but Phase 4 is an all out blow torch! With an active STJ, should Phase 4 occur, maybe some severe wx to get things kicked off this spring? I am on the idea of what you said. Seasonal temps. A few cold days, a few mild days. I think the back bone of winter is done as far as sustained cold and sustained snowy patterns go. We can 100% still receive wintry weather for the next 4-6 weeks should the right storm tracks occur again as you mentioned. Still seeing hints of snow and nice snows too on some GFS long range runs so always worth keeping one eye open for sure this time of year.

Yes , and I had late FEB early March 2012 in mind when i was typing, with similar atmospheric conditions, I'm sure everyone remembers that time period!!!!!

I absolutely do! I went to Lake Erie St. Patrick's Day weekend and caught the most number of, and monster sized walleye ever! Consistent 10-12 pounders the entire weekend. Lake was like glass! It was cold on the water since the lake water was in the 40s but inland, it was shorts and t-shirt weather. The best walleye fishing trip EVER! Period.

Good Evening and getting cold once again. Amazing how nice 40 degrees feels sometimes. See how the rest of February plays out but expecting rather typical weather and no extended warmth at this point. What concerns me more is late March and April as I expect a trough in the west and plenty of the southeast ridge to warm things up and when those troughs move east watch out for heavy rains and severe weather. The spring will have tons of cold remaining in western and central Canada and when those troughs pick up on some of the cold as they move southeast severe weather looks likely. I do expect a warmer than normal May as well which is quite the change from the past several years. The good thing though is if we get a bigger snow later this month the amount of time it hangs around on the ground is a much shorter period as the sun is getting higher in the sky every day.

My dad called his sis who lives in Indiana today and rescheduled seeing her to take care of some business at her house to Sat Feb 26th. This coming Sat my folks and I are attending a memorial celebration of life service of a church friend and then the Sat after that, dad will be attending a multi-church seminar, both here in Greenville.

Currently 19 here with a low around 7 progged on Tues morning.

Good morning everyone! 14 degree here currently on this TuesDEY morning! Only small chances for rain and snow exist this week and nothing that will cause any problems. Wed night and then again Fri / Fri night with a couple of weak clippers buzzing by. The SB storm is back but blows up to our SE on most models so currently going dry and cold for the Big Game here locally and I currently expect no issues for your party plans! Another small clipper on Mon may buzz by to the north but otherwise, the next significant system is not due in until Thurs / Fri Feb 17-18th with some rain probably ending as some snow on the backside.

The SBS system which is on life -support , actually gained a few EPS members showing the wave nearer CVGland. Might as well wait another model suite to pull the plug.

Northern Hemisphere winter rages on.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 7:42 am The SBS system which is on life -support , actually gained a few EPS members showing the wave nearer CVGland. Might as well wait another model suite to pull the plug.

A couple of GEFS members do the same!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 7:51 am Northern Hemisphere winter rages on.



FK-WUudUYAApEh2.png
fmi_swe_tracker-53.jpg

OES or Ocean Effect Snow... what an incredible phenomenon when they get a raging Pacific Jet coming off of East Asia and that atmospheric river of moisture slamming into the high mountains. Badda Bing! Badda Boom!

Good Morning Les and Bgoney. The super bowl system which has been on the board for days is there but exactly when it blows up is not exactly something models are doing a good job with. Mid-Feb and the GOM is waiting for these cold fronts to head their way as the moisture has no doubt recovered after last week. Signs are this will form but probably far enough to the south that we get a glancing blow at best. At this point looks like the weekend will be a very typical for us with cold temps and folks waiting for spring to arrive. I would love to see one more nice storm before we turn to spring and the good thing is the pattern through early March gives us a little hope that may happen but again timing like in life is key.

Hey Tim, good morning! I also think the storm will form, but a low chance it impacts us. I think the Fri clipper causes the front to stall to far away from us over the TN Valley or S. Apps. We'd better see more signs of change today if this has any signs of life for our local area other then a couple of Ensemble members.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:18 am Hey Tim, good morning! I also think the storm will form, but a low chance it impacts us. I think the Fri clipper causes the front to stall to far away from us over the TN Valley or S. Apps. We'd better see more signs of change today if this has any signs of life for our local area other then a couple of Ensemble members.

I agree Les and if anything just keeps the clouds in a little thicker. Later next week the pattern changes somewhat and like Joe mentioned yesterday with another arctic blast coming and some energy that looks decent heading to the southern plains we just need to figure out how all this comes together.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:22 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:18 am Hey Tim, good morning! I also think the storm will form, but a low chance it impacts us. I think the Fri clipper causes the front to stall to far away from us over the TN Valley or S. Apps. We'd better see more signs of change today if this has any signs of life for our local area other then a couple of Ensemble members.

I agree Les and if anything just keeps the clouds in a little thicker. Later next week the pattern changes somewhat and like Joe mentioned yesterday with another arctic blast coming and some energy that looks decent heading to the southern plains we just need to figure out how all this comes together.

I agree. This weekend a blast and probably next weekend too. So yes, the Fri clipper this week we're watching then the SB storm. For next week, Thurs / Fri is when the next system is due in ahead of that blast.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:28 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:22 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:18 am Hey Tim, good morning! I also think the storm will form, but a low chance it impacts us. I think the Fri clipper causes the front to stall to far away from us over the TN Valley or S. Apps. We'd better see more signs of change today if this has any signs of life for our local area other then a couple of Ensemble members.

I agree Les and if anything just keeps the clouds in a little thicker. Later next week the pattern changes somewhat and like Joe mentioned yesterday with another arctic blast coming and some energy that looks decent heading to the southern plains we just need to figure out how all this comes together.

I agree. This weekend a blast and probably next weekend too. So yes, the Fri clipper this week we're watching then the SB storm. For next week, Thurs / Fri is when the next system is due in ahead of that blast.

What makes next week interesting is how the energy in the southwest comes this way. One bigger system which more in likely would mean rain changing to snow or do we have something similar to last week as we get a southwest flow that pumps moisture for an extended period and then we are once again looking at different precip types. Way to early but the GOM will be open and how far south does the arctic air mass go. This is a very common pattern for mid-Feb with these overrunning events.

LOL @ the 8am obs at CVG. 17 degrees with fog and 64.00 mi visibility!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:34 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:28 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:22 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:18 am Hey Tim, good morning! I also think the storm will form, but a low chance it impacts us. I think the Fri clipper causes the front to stall to far away from us over the TN Valley or S. Apps. We'd better see more signs of change today if this has any signs of life for our local area other then a couple of Ensemble members.

I agree Les and if anything just keeps the clouds in a little thicker. Later next week the pattern changes somewhat and like Joe mentioned yesterday with another arctic blast coming and some energy that looks decent heading to the southern plains we just need to figure out how all this comes together.

I agree. This weekend a blast and probably next weekend too. So yes, the Fri clipper this week we're watching then the SB storm. For next week, Thurs / Fri is when the next system is due in ahead of that blast.

What makes next week interesting is how the energy in the southwest comes this way. One bigger system which more in likely would mean rain changing to snow or do we have something similar to last week as we get a southwest flow that pumps moisture for an extended period and then we are once again looking at different precip types. Way to early but the GOM will be open and how far south does the arctic air mass go. This is a very common pattern for mid-Feb with these overrunning events.

We would need the two low idea again for that set up to work, just like it did this last time. Otherwise, it'll be a cutter for sure thanks to the SE ridge.