Absolute Vorticity

NAM went back south some again. 0.06" QPF at CVG. I-70 Crew gets 0.02" and 0.19" for SE Crew.

Never trust a Winter NAM LOL

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:20 am Gets me every winter - I see these amp'ed up NAM model runs and get all excited only to have the rug pulled out. LOL

Hey Mike,that is why I spend less time with models and spend more time on what is happening. I use the models for a tool only but never get too excited with a model output. I still have not looked at the models for the weekend system yet and will probably do that later today. Les has kept me in the loop but I just need to watch what the weather is really doing instead of a model trying to forecast mother nature. So for the system on Thursday there is a wave heading in from the west and a low pressure that should develop to the south but before that happens how far does the colder air dig later today and tonight to me is a key to the forecast. I will be watching as single digits in Iowa and teens in parts of Illinois as we are in the 40's. Yes temps will drop later today and overnight but imo if we want the higher totals we need temps to level off overnight. We know dry cold air can eat up moisture especially when you are on the edge of the two fighting and since this system is not loaded with precip it does give the cold and dry air a fighting chance of eating up much of the moisture especially the further north and west you live.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:32 am Never trust a Winter NAM LOL

I wouldn't trust it too often at anytime of the year. I think that the model is going to get retired at some point the performance has been so bad.

12Z HRRR shows the sharp northern cut off as well. Most models do at this point.

12Z 3KM NAM agrees....

Sort of funny but with the model changes since Sunday we end up with the same forecast from 3 days ago. Unless there is a feature that we missed or some piece of energy that got so much stronger or weaker then the forecast that the folks put out here on Sunday looks great. With all systems a bust or overachiever is likely but a general forecast is what you try and put out and then explain how that forecast was made and the most likely outcome. Never going to be a perfect science as we have to many things in motion. I do find it funny that most folks get upset over a busted forecast on snow totals when as an example you put out a forecast of 1-3 inches and for some reason you get a 1/2 or 4 inches and they believe you missed the forecast badly. We never get upset with rainfall amounts we miss by say .25 inches but we do with missing a snow total by .10

12Z RGEM:

I'll take the 12Z RGEM

12Z GFS isn't very good. 0.02" for CVG QPF wise.

12Z Team Canada:


1-2" is what it's showing for my hood. I'd be thrilled if I can get an inch out of this one to be honest.

12Z UKIE bumped NW from the 0Z run. 0Z had no snow for most of us and a covering for SE Crew. Covering gets up to CVG now. 10:1 ratio. I have no Kuchera maps for this model.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:20 am 12Z GFS isn't very good. 0.02" for CVG QPF wise.

Like always the GooFuS is out to lunch…

MD issued for hvy snow: 1-2" per hour rates over the Rockies as our disturbance rolls thru Idaho.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0034.html

still looks good for the eastern part of the state. a solid 3-6" event

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:30 pm still looks good for the eastern part of the state. a solid 3-6" event

Eastern KY should do very well... agreed.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:31 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:30 pm still looks good for the eastern part of the state. a solid 3-6" event

Eastern KY should do very well... agreed.

Should still be a solid 1-3" for my area also. not even 2" to date so far. my guess is we are gonna make up some ground by the time this month is over though. yours and mine.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:31 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:30 pm still looks good for the eastern part of the state. a solid 3-6" event

Eastern KY should do very well... agreed.

Should still be a solid 1-3" for my area also. not even 2" to date so far. my guess is we are gonna make up some ground by the time this month is over though. yours and mine.

Hopefully! We're at 0.6" here and over 5" down for this point in the season. This area has a lot of catching up to do. Pattern is favorable for it to happen.

12Z Euro 10:1 Ratio:

0.05" QPF at CVG. FGX gets 0.15" from the Euro.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:40 am 12Z Team Canada:


TeamCanada.png


1-2" is what it's showing for my hood. I'd be thrilled if I can get an inch out of this one to be honest.

I'd be happy just seeing some white outside my window working from home these days!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:40 am 12Z Team Canada:


TeamCanada.png


1-2" is what it's showing for my hood. I'd be thrilled if I can get an inch out of this one to be honest.

I'd be happy just seeing some white outside my window working from home these days!

Same here Joe! Going on 2 years now lol (working from home)

Going to assume this afternoon that JKL issues warnings. LOU goes advisories north to perhaps some warnings in their southern areas. For our boys at ILN, thinking an advisory is warranted for S and SE tier of counties at this point. Would probably leave Boone, Kenton, Campbell on north and west from there out of it and go with SPS.

I’m guessing they issue a WWA, just to CYA for the evening commute and because it’s first snowfall.

Heck even the JMA model isn't our friend!