Absolute Vorticity

Actually hit 23 here. No snowpack!

18z NAM coming back towards the GFS and Euro in rainfall....now spits out 0.69" later Sat Night / early Sunday for CVG.

Today back in 1996, CVG received a 24 hour snowfall of 11.6" This was the beginnings of the Blizzard of 96 that destroyed the Mid Atlantic and Portions of New England. I know Charles will remember that one! We got the upper level low that was supposed to transfer its energy to the EC Low but took forever to do so. A 1-2" forecast turned into a foot at CVG. More to the East. Sharp NW cut off. Nothing at KIND.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:40 pm Today back in 1996, CVG received a 24 hour snowfall of 11.6" This was the beginnings of the Blizzard of 96 that destroyed the Mid Atlantic and Portions of New England. I know Charles will remember that one! We got the upper level low that was supposed to transfer its energy to the EC Low but took forever to do so. A 1-2" forecast turned into a foot at CVG. More to the East. Sharp NW cut off. Nothing at KIND.

I remember this… it was epic… just kept spinning overhead with more and more snow…

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:40 pm Today back in 1996, CVG received a 24 hour snowfall of 11.6" This was the beginnings of the Blizzard of 96 that destroyed the Mid Atlantic and Portions of New England. I know Charles will remember that one! We got the upper level low that was supposed to transfer its energy to the EC Low but took forever to do so. A 1-2" forecast turned into a foot at CVG. More to the East. Sharp NW cut off. Nothing at KIND.

I remember this… it was epic… just kept spinning overhead with more and more snow…

I am down to 11 now lol

18Z GFS looks interesting around the 18 / 19th, very cold after that too with more in the pipeline. Nice run! 18Z GEFS also cold and stormy. Potential is there on most long range models that I have seen. And it is consistent - A very strong signal for something(s) We've got a rain maker and some boring weather to go. Should get more interesting in about a week from now.

11 degrees here

This image is from the, I believe, French website that Les posted a few weeks ago concerning the MJO phases and how they respond in the atmosphere in correlation to La Nina, El Nino, and Enso neutral. This image is phase 7 in January during a La Nina.

CB Evening Update - https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=52715

It's worth a look. You can see all 3 12Z global ensembles at 500 MB showing the wonderful pattern coming up! Doug... they look a lot like the above image. Oh and you are correct on the site.

This is for the upper plains a week after the Tennessee valley/Kentucky tornado outbreak

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:40 pm Today back in 1996, CVG received a 24 hour snowfall of 11.6" This was the beginnings of the Blizzard of 96 that destroyed the Mid Atlantic and Portions of New England. I know Charles will remember that one! We got the upper level low that was supposed to transfer its energy to the EC Low but took forever to do so. A 1-2" forecast turned into a foot at CVG. More to the East. Sharp NW cut off. Nothing at KIND.

I was living in Pennsylvania at the time and recall that roads were closed due to the snow. I think we got over 15” where I was. I believe a few days later we had a massive warmup and rain event that caused major flooding….but maybe I’m thinking of another storm. Lol

So far this winter has had it all... big snows, big cold and big time severe wx. All we need is that big snow event for us and we can call it a day lol

Low of 12 here and at CVG so far.

I hit 9 degrees around 5am

Guess they figured, why bother , to update the MJO the last few days since it is still in the same location it has been for quite some time. Still at the invisible border of 7/8 . Safe to say at this point it is stalled, bit as long as the 500mb modeling a week from now and beyond come true, that will do just fine for the second half of January

A couple of interesting things to note from the overnight guidance before the 12Z runs come out this afternoon... The first is check out the 0Z GFS animation below. You can clearly see the split flow pattern with numerous short waves in both the polar and subtropical jet streams. We just need to wait and see if two of them can phase for a big storm. The pattern is like this out to Day 16 with no stoppage in sight. So we should have a few chances at a light to mod event and a shot at a big one too after mid month. East Coast posters as well like Charles should also be excited about the upcoming pattern that should be beginning late next week / next weekend.

Also, another big drop in the SOI has occurred which I also thought was interesting and could argue for a stormy pattern or one big storm anyway, down the road.

Low of 13 around 4:00

NAM AMP model over 1” at CVG for later tonight into tomorrow. Yeah no

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:28 am NAM AMP model over 1” at CVG for later tonight into tomorrow. Yeah no

You know my call... sticking with it.

It's only 22 imby with full sunshine right now. So I am wondering... Do we even make it into the L40s today? Very dry air right now so could wet bulbing processes lead to sleet at the onset briefly then rain overnight? Doubtful many will be up to see or hear it, after midnight for verification.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:32 am It's only 22 imby with full sunshine right now. So I am wondering... Do we even make it into the L40s today? Very dry air right now so could wet bulbing processes lead to sleet at the onset briefly then rain overnight? Doubtful many will be up to see or hear it, after midnight for verification.

Some road temps at that time will probably still be at freezing , especially the less sun drenched roadways. So i could see some icing possible even if it starts as rain.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:32 am It's only 22 imby with full sunshine right now. So I am wondering... Do we even make it into the L40s today? Very dry air right now so could wet bulbing processes lead to sleet at the onset briefly then rain overnight? Doubtful many will be up to see or hear it, after midnight for verification.

Some road temps at that time will probably still be at freezing , especially the less sun drenched roadways. So i could see some icing possible even if it starts as rain.

Absolutely! The ground is not going to warm up fast this time of year. Great post!

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