Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:57 pm**

Next and hopefully last major line coming through at the moment. So are heavy rain and strong winds. My phone has went off more today for severe weather than any day I can remember.

Posted: **Tue Aug 17, 2021 6:04 pm**

Posted: **Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:00 pm**

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:15 am**

Glad that system is out of the area as 36 tornado warnings were issued for the local area which is a record. The good thing was the rain was much lighter here with probably about 1 1/2 but some reports in the mountains to the north are showing over a foot of rain fell.

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:28 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:15 am Glad that system is out of the area as 36 tornado warnings were issued for the local area which is a record. The good thing was the rain was much lighter here with probably about 1 1/2 but some reports in the mountains to the north are showing over a foot of rain fell.

Holy smokes @ the tornado warnings!

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:29 am**

Grace is ramping up with winds of 65 mph headed towards the Yuc. Penn.

Henri has winds of 65 also moving to the West right now.

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:48 am**

Think Henri now has a chance to affect the New England coast with winds and waves. No landfall for US but close enough to see effects

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:50 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:48 am Think Henri now has a chance to affect the New England coast with winds and waves. No landfall for US but close enough to see effects

Was seeing that yesterday on the guidance. Should see an inch or two of rain for the coast and some wind. Like a weak version of a Nor 'Easter.

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:57 am**

Grace is a minimal hurricane as of 11am

AL072021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 12:18 pm**

Mexico is going to be on the receiving end of a two landfall hurricane system. What I mean is Grace makes landfall #1 as a cane in the Yuc. Penn then landfall #2 on the mainland of Mexico itself as a hurricane again. Bad news for that country and those that are affected.

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 12:38 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:50 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:48 am Think Henri now has a chance to affect the New England coast with winds and waves. No landfall for US but close enough to see effects
Was seeing that yesterday on the guidance. Should see an inch or two of rain for the coast and some wind. Like a weak version of a Nor 'Easter.

Did you see the new 12Z GFS? Yikes! Let's hope that is wrong for New England.

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:03 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 12:38 pm
Did you see the new 12Z GFS? Yikes! Let's hope that is wrong for New England.

Almost looks like Sandy....just a bit more to the north and east.

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:14 pm**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:03 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 12:38 pm
Did you see the new 12Z GFS? Yikes! Let's hope that is wrong for New England.
Almost looks like Sandy....just a bit more to the north and east.

Yeah. IF that block is there, the storm will be forced west but that's the key. Will be interesting to watch unfold to see if those folks get a scare or a "made ya look".

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 2:22 pm**

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 2:45 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:14 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:03 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 12:38 pm
Did you see the new 12Z GFS? Yikes! Let's hope that is wrong for New England.
Almost looks like Sandy....just a bit more to the north and east.
Yeah. IF that block is there, the storm will be forced west but that's the key. Will be interesting to watch unfold to see if those folks get a scare or a "made ya look".

12Z Euro is weaker with this system but still causes problems. The storm stalls out for a while in the Gulf of Maine. Not good for New England, esp Northern areas.

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:28 pm**

Shows what a tropical system can do once it gets into the mountains. 30 folks are missing in a county located in southwest NC. Some area got 15 inches of rain in a short period of time. At least 2 tornado's confirmed locally and one was about 2 miles away. Not used to seeing this kind of severe weather in mid-August. Still very muggy with all the rain in the ground and will plan on mowing down here Thursday since we may see more here Friday and Saturday.

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:02 pm**

Another jump west with the cone for Henri. Impactful winds and waves now likely for New England coast and then Nova Scotia

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:31 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:02 pm Another jump west with the cone for Henri. Impactful winds and waves now likely for New England coast and then Nova Scotia

Yeah, this is getting more interesting. Anyone from NYC and LI on up the Coast needs to be watching this one. Winds of 70 mph so a cane is not far off now. If the upper trough and the hurricane do a dance at 500 MB, the hurricane will be forced West. It has no choice. See Hurricane Sandy. However, if it does not happen, then you'll get a scare and dodge a bullet, as in Hurricane Joaquin. The dance at 500 MB did not occur with that system.

Posted: **Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:25 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:28 pm Shows what a tropical system can do once it gets into the mountains. 30 folks are missing in a county located in southwest NC. Some area got 15 inches of rain in a short period of time. At least 2 tornado's confirmed locally and one was about 2 miles away. Not used to seeing this kind of severe weather in mid-August. Still very muggy with all the rain in the ground and will plan on mowing down here Thursday since we may see more here Friday and Saturday.

Prayerfully those people will be found soon safe and sound, Bro.

Folks in the Southeast, after a while, time to start "pairing up animals and building arks."

Posted: **Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:35 am**

Grace has winds of 80 mph moving into the Yuc Penn today. She will weaken but regain cane strength over the Gulf before hitting Mexico down the road.

Henri is our main story with winds of 70 moving W at 8. How far West until it turns north and how far does it get to New England remains to be seen. LI, Boston, The Cape, are all in the cone.

Posted: **Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:37 am**

OH Henri, battling shear right now and for the next 24-36 hrs, so don't expect much change in intensity one way or the other for this time frame.

Posted: **Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:43 am**

Posted: **Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:57 am**

Hope they took the circus tent down on OBAMA Island, going to get rough there

Posted: **Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:08 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:57 am Hope they took the circus tent down on OBAMA Island, going to get rough there

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