September 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

22 1/2". About 3.5 pounds.

27419.jpeg

[cloudy72]

Another smoke day messing with highs! Mine was only 86 today. Les - looks like you are having an awesome trip!!

[tron777]

We are Mike! So far so good. We'll see what tomorrow brings lol

[tron777]

A ton of these up here. Love it!

IMG_20210913_122125779_MP.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
401 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-140815-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
401 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and storms will be possible Tuesday night and again
during the afternoon on Wednesday, with a few isolated strong or
severe storms possible. Gusty/damaging winds will be the primary
threat.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon.

$$

[Bgoney]

Ike anniversary from ILN


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
249 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

HOW WIND IS MEASURED AND RECORDED OVER THE YEARS HAS CHANGED. CURRENTLY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TRACKS TWO TYPES OF WIND SPEEDS. A SUSTAINED
WIND...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OVER 2 MINUTES. BEFORE 1984...A FASTEST MILE
WAS RECORDED RATHER THAN THE 2 MINUTE SUSTAINED. THIS WAS THE AVERAGE
OVER 1 MINUTE.

NEXT IS AN INSTANTANEOUS GUST...A VALUE AVERAGED OVER 3 SECONDS. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DID NOT START TO INCLUDE THE INSTANTANEOUS
GUSTS IN THEIR YEAR END SUMMARIES UNTIL 1984. THEREFORE IT IS NOT POSSIBLE
TO TRACK ALL WIND GUSTS BEFORE 1984.

COMPARING THE RECORDED WINDS FROM SUNDAYS HIGH WIND EVENT. AT DAYTON...THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND WAS 50 MPH...AND THE HIGHEST GUST WAS 69 MPH. BOTH
OF THESE WERE MEASURED AT THE DAYTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE HIGHEST
SUSTAINED WIND RECORDED AT DAYTON...DATING BACK TO 1919 WAS 78 MPH...ON
JUNE 16 1950. IT CAN BE ASSUMED THAT GUSTS WERE HIGHER. THE HIGHEST GUST
RECORDED...SINCE 1984...WAS 74 MPH ON JULY 19 1998. THEREFORE THE GUSTS
ON SUNDAY WERE THE SECOND HIGHEST GUST ON RECORD AND THE THIRD HIGHEST
WIND SPEED RECORDED SINCE 1919.

AT CINCINNATI...THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND ON SUNDAY WAS 54 MPH...AND THE
HIGHEST GUST WAS 74 MPH. THESE WERE MEASURED AT THE CINCINNATI-NORTHERN
KENTUCKY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE HIGHEST GUST RECORDED...SINCE 1984...WAS
76 MPH ON APRIL 2 2006. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND RECORDED IN
CINCINNATI...DATING BACK TO 1939 WAS 60 MPH...RECORDED ON NOVEMBER 20 1950.
THEREFORE THE GUSTS ON SUNDAY WERE THE SECOND HIGHEST GUST ON RECORD AND
THE SUSTAINED WINDS WERE THE THIRD HIGHEST ON RECORD.

FINALLY AT COLUMBUS...THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND ON SUNDAY WAS 54 MPH...AND
THE HIGHEST GUST WAS 75 MPH. THESE WERE MEASURED AT PORT COLUMBUS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE HIGHEST GUST RECORDED...SINCE 1916...WAS 110 MPH
ON JULY 31 1916 AND THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND RECORDED WAS 84 MPH ON THE
SAME DATE. THESE WERE RECORDED IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBUS. THEREFORE THE GUSTS ON
SUNDAY WERE THE SECOND HIGHEST GUST ON RECORD...BUT THE HIGHEST EVER
RECORDED AT PORT COLUMBUS AND THE SUSTAINED WINDS WERE THE SIXTH HIGHEST
ON RECORD.

$$

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another warm day in store. How much rain do we get on Wednesday. Not sure how much tropical moisture works into the front so I am going low with maybe a 1/4 inch for most. If you get very lucky and have a downpour then more is possible but very spotty areas. We will continue the warm and mainly dry weather starting Thursday through the weekend. Can we get some rain next week and a stronger front looks possible but like I mentioned before these fronts seldom bring decent rains without the tropical input. One way that you can get some decent rains and its happens more later in the season is a cutoff low but these are very hard to predict this far out plus they are usually narrow in their area of precip.

[cloudy72]

Good Morning and another warm day in store. How much rain do we get on Wednesday. Not sure how much tropical moisture works into the front so I am going low with maybe a 1/4 inch for most. If you get very lucky and have a downpour then more is possible but very spotty areas. We will continue the warm and mainly dry weather starting Thursday through the weekend. Can we get some rain next week and a stronger front looks possible but like I mentioned before these fronts seldom bring decent rains without the tropical input. One way that you can get some decent rains and its happens more later in the season is a cutoff low but these are very hard to predict this far out plus they are usually narrow in their area of precip.

Great post and I agree - go low with the rain totals. Some folks may get lucky, but this sure seems like a rinse and repeat of 2021 to me.....storms fire to our NW later today, weaken tonight as they move into our area in an unfavorable time of day, only to re-fire to our east and south tomorrow.

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
425 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054-060>062-
070-071-077-150900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Hardin-Mercer-
Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-
425 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and a few storms are likely tonight. An isolated strong or
severe storm will be possible with gusty or damaging winds being the
primary threat.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
425 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ055-056-063>065-072>074-078>082-088-150900-
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Franklin OH-Licking-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
425 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and
Southwest Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and a few storms are likely Wednesday afternoon. An isolated
strong or severe storm will be possible with gusty or damaging winds
being the primary threat.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon. There is a typhoon hitting east China and what does that have to do with the weather around here. This one is re-curving and usually this will end up throwing a trough over the central and eastern USA within 10-14 days. The gfs today is really starting to pick up on this and I agree with the gfs which is probably a bad ideal lol

[MVWxObserver]

----

[cloudy72]

Excellent point about the recurving typhoon in the WPC Tim - that frequently dislodges the cold from the arctic and send it our way and the models will be delayed in picking up on this. All I have seen on social media is the warmth expected the rest of the month, but this may, at least temporarily, send some cooler air our way before another ridge may form again.

Looking at present weather - some storms up by Ft Wayne into southern MI. Our SBCAPE not too bad here around 3,000 J/kg and DCAPE in the 1100-1200 range..so if something can get cranking it could be quite strong. However, not a lot of forcing and the shear is up north where the storms currently reside. Have to wait until after sunset I believe when the front approaches, and as we know it will be less favorable time of day for svr weather.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

[MVWxObserver]

Currently a Marginal risk for Les, his bro, and their fishing buddies on Thurs.

[tpweather]

Excellent point about the recurving typhoon in the WPC Tim - that frequently dislodges the cold from the arctic and send it our way and the models will be delayed in picking up on this. All I have seen on social media is the warmth expected the rest of the month, but this may, at least temporarily, send some cooler air our way before another ridge may form again.

Looking at present weather - some storms up by Ft Wayne into southern MI. Our SBCAPE not too bad here around 3,000 J/kg and DCAPE in the 1100-1200 range..so if something can get cranking it could be quite strong. However, not a lot of forcing and the shear is up north where the storms currently reside. Have to wait until after sunset I believe when the front approaches, and as we know it will be less favorable time of day for svr weather.

Great Post Mike and I agree 100p/c and I do as well believe its not trough after trough but I do expect a shot of cooler air and that is when you could see temps in the 60's for highs and lows in the 40's for a day or two before the month is out. After that we just need to watch the pattern and at the moment I agree we go back to a milder period but by then milder can be upper 70's for highs.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Bite slower today. One over and probably 4 other keepers. Quite a few nice perch. Weather wise, rained last night. Was sunny but windy today. 60s

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

2248 UNK 2 N STOCKDALE MIAMI IN 4094 8594 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (IWX)

0005 UNK 4 NNW LANCASTER HUNTINGTON IN 4080 8553 MULTIPLE TREES AND TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN SOUTH-CENTRAL HUNTINGTON COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (IWX)

0041 UNK 2 SSE JALAPA GRANT IN 4060 8573 TREE ACROSS ROAD. (IWX)

0223 UNK 3 ESE FARMLAND RANDOLPH IN 4017 8507 TREE DOWN AT COUNTY ROAD 100 NORTH AND COUNTY ROAD 500 WEST. (IND)

0229 UNK 1 S MUNCIE DELAWARE IN 4018 8539 TREE LIMBS ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN. SHINGLES BLOWN OFF. (IND)

[MVWxObserver]

----