Absolute Vorticity

Had a brief ground wetter early this morning and that's been it for today up my way.

Currently 81 here in G'ville with a DP of 75. Progged for 72 degrees on Wed morning.

Congrats on having finally cashed in again today, Les!

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More of the same through Friday. 30% chance of garden variety t-showers slightly better chance of storms near I70. Severe threat remains very low and at best isolated

Welp the hi-res models bombed yesterday evening - barely even a cloud here. LOL I like Bgoney's call of garden variety today/tomorrow with maybe an increased chance with the front on Friday.

Currently some showers north of I-70 and bigger MCS complex up by Ft Wayne....guess it will come down to radar watching the next 3 days. Can't really rely on any model in this stagnant pattern.

Good morning all and my idea tracking an MCS (using the Euro and HRRR) for this morning has also busted. Back to nowcasting as has been already mentioned. If we don't see rain then it's a contest day and if we do (near CVG) then it probably won't be.

I have an aunt and cousin who reside in Baldwin, MI and their area is under an Enhanced zone today.

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A low of 75... That's awful! If clouds don't hurt us, 90+ should be easy today. Probably even easier for tomorrow.

My low was only 77 - prob the warmest that I can recall in quite some time.

Low here in G'ville is 73.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:42 am Good morning all and my idea tracking an MCS (using the Euro and HRRR) for this morning has also busted. Back to nowcasting as has been already mentioned. If we don't see rain then it's a contest day and if we do (near CVG) then it probably won't be.

I agree Les and even when there are many things pointing to a decent shot of rain it is not happening. No doubt Friday and early Saturday is the best shot and with all the moisture that is already here and will pool more towards the front then if we miss out then its just not met to be. I agree with Bgoney concerning severe weather and this time of year that usually happens north of the local tri-state but with a front late this week there is a chance and probably higher than normal this time of year. Going to mow my grass Sunday before I leave though it could use a cutting today.

Good morning Tim! Also in agreement. Not going to get burnt again with this set up and just nowcast. 3 more days before relief comes. Weekend is looking nice for us here locally IMO.

Yeah I am not getting burned as well! HRRR all over the place this morning. What I do know - SBCAPE already 3000-3500 across NKY and extreme SW Ohio/SE Indiana. However, all the good shear is up north where the storms have fired and lapse rates here are not very good, yet. So we wait and watch the radar/meso data for hope later! Still picking Friday as the best storm chance area-wide.

There are some hints that the MCS currently in western Illinois glides E during the day and may impact northern posters this afternoon, but who knows.

Les did you see where Barrow,Alaska had some light snow overnight. Sure they once in awhile get snow in August but its rare. The average daytime high this time of year is 48 and average low of 35. A decent early cold shot up there plus a stream of moisture heading to the panhandle where more than 5 inches of rain possible in places which again does happen but worth noting. I hope this winter we get a lot of the west-to southwest winds as this can lead to a decent amount of moisture but also keep us cold instead of the dreaded southeast wind.

SPC new day 1 outlook is out, and SLGT risk has been added from roughly DAY through Columbus. I am thinking they feel the IL MCS will build eastward as I mentioned earlier.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:19 am Les did you see where Barrow,Alaska had some light snow overnight. Sure they once in awhile get snow in August but its rare. The average daytime high this time of year is 48 and average low of 35. A decent early cold shot up there plus a stream of moisture heading to the panhandle where more than 5 inches of rain possible in places which again does happen but worth noting. I hope this winter we get a lot of the west-to southwest winds as this can lead to a decent amount of moisture but also keep us cold instead of the dreaded southeast wind.

I did not know that Tim! Thanks for posting that. Good to know that the signs are already in motion. I would have expected this post a month from now to be honest.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:41 am SPC new day 1 outlook is out, and SLGT risk has been added from roughly DAY through Columbus. I am thinking they feel the IL MCS will build eastward as I mentioned earlier.


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Good luck Bro! Same for everyone else involved to the north of Cincyville.

60% chance of a watch to be issued downstream of the current MCS over ILL and IN:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1475.html

Only monitoring for the potential I-70 impacts later as Mike as alluded to.

Just looked at mesopage and it's a shame to see this energy go to waste. Almost at 4000 J/kg at CVG at 10am and nothing for any lifts or triggers.