Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and sure some folks have received small amounts of rainfall but others get hit hard and quick with some heavy rains the past two days. Nice complex to the northwest of us this morning and how much will be left as it gets closer to the local area is problem number one. The low is moving northeast so I would expect the higher chances of storms later today is further north and east but still everyone still has a chance to get more rainfall.

Thursday looks dry but a quick rise in temps and dewpoints during the day. Storms look to develop well west of us and head east in the evening. I believe we should manage a dry day and we may not see any rain until closer to the mid-night hour with the higher chances to the north. This will end up laying a boundary down for Friday.

Still concerning about Friday evening and the set up is one where a very strong cold front collides with a brief period of summer heat and humidity and many factors at least on paper looks like a severe outbreak and depending on where that layer from early in the morning stalls will determine how far north the severe weather is Friday evening. I believe locally yes we are in a good spot for severe weather and folks towards I-70 could also be included in this severe outbreak but will just need to watch how Friday unfolds.

This kind of outbreak can bring all types of severe weather which includes hail,strong winds,plenty of lightning and thunder and yes even some tornado's could spin up plus heavy rain in a short period of time.

Just back from 10 days hunting in the Kalahari region of South Africa. Wow, what a weather difference from here. It is their first month of winter. Lows were 50s and highs upper 70s, low 80s. It was dry there as expected. Beautiful cloudless days. Clear nights. I was able to view the Southern Cross each night. It was hard to come back to this "rainy" season. The yard needs to be baled like hay. Lol.

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:25 am Just back from 10 days hunting in the Kalahari region of South Africa. Wow, what a weather difference from here. It is their first month of winter. Lows were 50s and highs upper 70s, low 80s. It was dry there as expected. Beautiful cloudless days. Clear nights. I was able to view the Southern Cross each night. It was hard to come back to this "rainy" season. The yard needs to be baled like hay. Lol.

Sounds like a great place to visit and would love to see the Southern Cross and yes Black Sabbath did a song about the Southern Cross in the early 80's with Ronnie James Dio as their new singer at the time.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:08 am Good Morning and sure some folks have received small amounts of rainfall but others get hit hard and quick with some heavy rains the past two days. Nice complex to the northwest of us this morning and how much will be left as it gets closer to the local area is problem number one. The low is moving northeast so I would expect the higher chances of storms later today is further north and east but still everyone still has a chance to get more rainfall.

Thursday looks dry but a quick rise in temps and dewpoints during the day. Storms look to develop well west of us and head east in the evening. I believe we should manage a dry day and we may not see any rain until closer to the mid-night hour with the higher chances to the north. This will end up laying a boundary down for Friday.

Still concerning about Friday evening and the set up is one where a very strong cold front collides with a brief period of summer heat and humidity and many factors at least on paper looks like a severe outbreak and depending on where that layer from early in the morning stalls will determine how far north the severe weather is Friday evening. I believe locally yes we are in a good spot for severe weather and folks towards I-70 could also be included in this severe outbreak but will just need to watch how Friday unfolds.

This kind of outbreak can bring all types of severe weather which includes hail,strong winds,plenty of lightning and thunder and yes even some tornado's could spin up plus heavy rain in a short period of time.

My thoughts remind me of very high winds. Not sure I'd go as far as a derecho as those are unique set up's but we will have a strong temp contrast which is needed for severe wx. Fri night certainly needs to be watched closely.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:28 am

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:25 am Just back from 10 days hunting in the Kalahari region of South Africa. Wow, what a weather difference from here. It is their first month of winter. Lows were 50s and highs upper 70s, low 80s. It was dry there as expected. Beautiful cloudless days. Clear nights. I was able to view the Southern Cross each night. It was hard to come back to this "rainy" season. The yard needs to be baled like hay. Lol.

Sounds like a great place to visit and would love to see the Southern Cross and yes Black Sabbath did a song about the Southern Cross in the early 80's with Ronnie James Dio as their new singer at the time.

Great tune, Tim! Wooly... how was the hunting? What did you shoot?

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The above blob of rain is trying to push into the Cincy Metro but is weakening as it does so. Light rain can be expected but I think amounts will be on the light side.

Light rain here due to that weakening incoming blob ahead of the incoming warm front (for tonight).

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:58 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:28 am

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:25 am Just back from 10 days hunting in the Kalahari region of South Africa. Wow, what a weather difference from here. It is their first month of winter. Lows were 50s and highs upper 70s, low 80s. It was dry there as expected. Beautiful cloudless days. Clear nights. I was able to view the Southern Cross each night. It was hard to come back to this "rainy" season. The yard needs to be baled like hay. Lol.

Sounds like a great place to visit and would love to see the Southern Cross and yes Black Sabbath did a song about the Southern Cross in the early 80's with Ronnie James Dio as their new singer at the time.

Great tune, Tim! Wooly... how was the hunting? What did you shoot?

The hunting was superb. Zebra, kudu, gemsbuck, springbuck, warthog, impala, jackal and a steenbuck.

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 9:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:58 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:28 am

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 7:25 am Just back from 10 days hunting in the Kalahari region of South Africa. Wow, what a weather difference from here. It is their first month of winter. Lows were 50s and highs upper 70s, low 80s. It was dry there as expected. Beautiful cloudless days. Clear nights. I was able to view the Southern Cross each night. It was hard to come back to this "rainy" season. The yard needs to be baled like hay. Lol.

Sounds like a great place to visit and would love to see the Southern Cross and yes Black Sabbath did a song about the Southern Cross in the early 80's with Ronnie James Dio as their new singer at the time.

Great tune, Tim! Wooly... how was the hunting? What did you shoot?

The hunting was superb. Zebra, kudu, gemsbuck, springbuck, warthog, impala, jackal and a steenbuck. 20250504_181555.jpg

That sounds awesome! Thanks for sharing the pic too. Truly breath taking views!

New rainfall totals for today as of 11am:

CVG - 0.02"
Me - 0.02"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.02"

1pm update...

CVG - 0.12"
Me - 0.11"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.07"

1pm update...

CVG - 0.13"
Me - 0.12"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.07"

Nam has 60-70+ shear for Friday evening. Usually see that kind of shear in early March events when there’s no Cape involved.

CVG reached 76, DAY 73 and CMH 74 today.

ALERT: SPC now has us under an Enhanced Risk for Fri night. 10% hatched TOR, Hatched 15% Hail, and hatched 30% wind.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 15, 2025 7:11 am ALERT: SPC now has us under an Enhanced Risk for Fri night. 10% hatched TOR, Hatched 15% Hail, and hatched 30% wind.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Yet another nocturnal threat for tornadoes e.g. again, oh "goody"!

Most likely an upgrade to moderate status in future updates from SPC for much of that enhanced area. Whether that includes CVGland , we’ll see.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu May 15, 2025 8:12 am Most likely an upgrade to moderate status in future updates from SPC for much of that enhanced area. Whether that includes CVGland , we’ll see.

If we don't see any junk convection or debris clouds on Fri, esp in the morning, then IMO, it is game on for a moderate risk. My guess is, that they are going to see what the 12Z hi res data says today then see if a moderate upgrade is warranted. It certainly may happen later today or tomorrow's early morning update,

81 / 68 at CVG so it certainly feels like summer now!

No surprises with the SPC update as they upgraded to moderate for a large area just to our SW but have actually upgraded cvgland as well as the percentages for severe have gone up locally

Some differences I am noticing in the modeling... 12Z HRRR has afternoon convection Fri which limits the evening potential. The NAM keeps anything S of us on Friday until Fri evening thru about 1am (so it's a bit slower too) so thus, a higher severe threat.

Disagreement from the hires models is pretty significant on timing and placement of clusters of storms for all of tomorrow. Hopefully Oz narrows is down better