Severe Wx / Flooding Rain Event Combo: April 2-6, 2025

[tpweather]

TREMENDOUS frontogenic forcing to our SW. The heavy rain threat is going to be a big deal later today into tonight once the lift and forcing arrives here.


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I agree Les and to me this has been the period that can give us the big totals. Late Saturday as well but that is not set in stone though I believe 1-3 during that time period and maybe 2-4 later today and overnight. Not good

[tpweather]

I see the NAM has come in line with the HRRR model. Going to ride that until its wrong and so far doing a great job. Nam was with the HRRR last night but was always further northwest for Thursday nights action.

[tron777]

I see the NAM has come in line with the HRRR model. Going to ride that until its wrong and so far doing a great job. Nam was with the HRRR last night but was always further northwest for Thursday nights action.

Both models showing an additional 5"- 6"+ of rain yet to come so I like our forecast still coming true at this time.

EDIT: 12Z GFS is 5"+ as well.

[tpweather]

I see the NAM has come in line with the HRRR model. Going to ride that until its wrong and so far doing a great job. Nam was with the HRRR last night but was always further northwest for Thursday nights action.

Both models showing an additional 5"- 6"+ of rain yet to come so I like our forecast still coming true at this time.

EDIT: 12Z GFS is 5"+ as well.

Les even the CMC is showing over 4 inches and that model is usually a little light on rainfall totals

[Sawdoggie]

Looking back at last night, around 1am it looked like a hurricane outside my window in Madeira. The power came back on at our farm in Ripley, OH a little while ago—I was able to check the weather stats and there was a 63 mph wind gust at 2:01a verifying the SVR thunderstorm warning.

I may not have mentioned on here that I volunteer as the disaster action team (DAT) coordinator for the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State Chapter of the Red Cross. In a nutshell, the 100 or so DAT members in our chapter are the "first responders" when Red Cross help is requested. If you are meeting with us in your front yard, you most likely had a bad day or night. I was pleasantly surprised when I looked at our dispatch system this morning and only saw one call from overnight (and also that I got to sleep until morning without a call). Based on what I saw from the window and watching the velocity from the CVG terminal radar as it went through, I honestly expected more. A couple additional calls have since come in, all trees on houses and primarily on the east side, but overall, based on the relatively low volume of calls to us, the area seems to have faired pretty well all things considering. Now waiting on flooding and the next wind/severe threat with the very saturated ground...

[Sawdoggie]

Looking back at last night, around 1am it looked like a hurricane outside my window in Madeira. The power came back on at our farm in Ripley, OH a little while ago—I was able to check the weather stats and there was a 63 mph wind gust at 2:01a verifying the SVR thunderstorm warning.

I may not have mentioned on here that I volunteer as the disaster action team (DAT) coordinator for the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State Chapter of the Red Cross. In a nutshell, the 100 or so DAT members in our chapter are the "first responders" when Red Cross help is requested. If you are meeting with us in your front yard, you most likely had a bad day or night. I was pleasantly surprised when I looked at our dispatch system this morning and only saw one call from overnight (and also that I got to sleep until morning without a call). Based on what I saw from the window and watching the velocity from the CVG terminal radar as it went through, I honestly expected more. A couple additional calls have since come in, all trees on houses and primarily on the east side, but overall, based on the relatively low volume of calls to us, the area seems to have faired pretty well all things considering. Now waiting on flooding and the next wind/severe threat with the very saturated ground...

[tron777]

Looks like the 12Z Euro gives CVG 5" of rain yet to come also thru Sunday.

[BookNerdCarp]

Looking back at last night, around 1am it looked like a hurricane outside my window in Madeira. The power came back on at our farm in Ripley, OH a little while ago—I was able to check the weather stats and there was a 63 mph wind gust at 2:01a verifying the SVR thunderstorm warning.

I may not have mentioned on here that I volunteer as the disaster action team (DAT) coordinator for the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State Chapter of the Red Cross. In a nutshell, the 100 or so DAT members in our chapter are the "first responders" when Red Cross help is requested. If you are meeting with us in your front yard, you most likely had a bad day or night. I was pleasantly surprised when I looked at our dispatch system this morning and only saw one call from overnight (and also that I got to sleep until morning without a call). Based on what I saw from the window and watching the velocity from the CVG terminal radar as it went through, I honestly expected more. A couple additional calls have since come in, all trees on houses and primarily on the east side, but overall, based on the relatively low volume of calls to us, the area seems to have faired pretty well all things considering. Now waiting on flooding and the next wind/severe threat with the very saturated ground...

I had a 64 MPH just about 2:06 AM along the river in Ripley

[Bgoney]

Some of the damage my woods took last night from straight line winds. Like I mentioned this morning, guessing winds were 70-80 mph , noticeably stronger than any I’ve seen since living here

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[tron777]

Just had a shower move thru here for the first rain of the daytime hours today. Looks like we'll be in and out of the showers over the next few hours and as the LLJ kicks in tonight, some of that heavier stuff down in ARK will be heading into the region.

[tron777]

Some of the damage my woods took last night from straight line winds. Like I mentioned this morning, guessing winds were 70-80 mph , noticeably stronger than any I’ve seen since living here

Very impressive!

[MVWxObserver]

Eric, I believe you are now under a tornado warning

Hi Dave,

Those warnings got confusing because I checked back on the NWS site and it showed a tan-colored strip in Darke Co. for a severe t-storm warning but no red-colored one for a tornado. Mom and I e.g. were wondering that same thing. She had the TV on all night watching the local media updates.

She had a doc appt this morning and of course is tired so she'll be having a nap this afternoon.

I ended up sleeping in about an hour since I work from home on Thursdays. Would've liked to get up and get it over early today, but just couldn't after last night. Glad y'all are OK though, and everyone else for that matter.

Thank you bro and thankful that you, your family and everyone else are okay, too. Amen to that.

[tpweather]

Just had a shower move thru here for the first rain of the daytime hours today. Looks like we'll be in and out of the showers over the next few hours and as the LLJ kicks in tonight, some of that heavier stuff down in ARK will be heading into the region.

Great Post Les and was just about ready to post about the LLJ. Bgoney looks like plenty of firewood next winter and has some period of time to season.

[tron777]

Moderate rain now and some heavier rain moving into the region. 1.04" now for the updated total at CVG. I am going to try and keep a running total thru Sunday to see how the forecast pans out for the grand total.

[tpweather]

Moderate rain now and some heavier rain moving into the region. 1.04" now for the updated total at CVG. I am going to try and keep a running total thru Sunday to see how the forecast pans out for the grand total.

Sound good Les. I expect a good dose of rain tonight though Kevin on 5 thought it would be mainly light rain off and on. I just believe the LLJ will quick in once again and this time heavy rain is more likely than severe weather here.

[tron777]

Water Vapor image and I labeled some important things on it:

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[tron777]

Talked to my Brother and Duke est that their power maybe out until tomorrow night. Wow! Things must be bad over there. It took them 90 mins to go to Wendy's this morning due to road closures.

[tron777]

OH River at Cincinnati is expected to crest at 56 feet Monday PM of next week.

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[tron777]

Various River Flood Warnings throughout our CWA:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

[Bgoney]

Moderate rain now and some heavier rain moving into the region. 1.04" now for the updated total at CVG. I am going to try and keep a running total thru Sunday to see how the forecast pans out for the grand total.

I’m currently at 2” for event with moderate rains coming in

[Bgoney]

Getting thunder and more heavy rain pockets now

[Bgoney]

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[MVWxObserver]

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[Bgoney]

Another 2” overnight here bringing qpf tab total so far to 4” and not quite halfway through.

O6z HiRes NAM showing another QLCS with straight line winds and embedded tornadoes for midday Saturday, blossoming near and along I71 and points east , at least for the moment. Models are all over the place on how tomorrow unfolds. Where the warm front pushes north will be crucial

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and 2.16 overnight. This morning the high res models not doing a great job with the current setup. The HRRR has been the best and the NAM will do good one run to match the HRRR and then do its normal to far northwest. Yesterday the rain stayed around a lot longer to the south of us and Kentucky is a mess for the most part. Will look at more info later this morning but have an appointment and should be back around 10am. No doubt the heavy rain has been a mess with the allergies and running out of tissues lol