Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:05 pm**

30 here with moderate to heavy rain

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:08 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 4:54 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 4:47 pm Euro and esp the EPS / Euro AI are all coming in more amp'ed up with these waves for next week versus the GFS and Canadian models. We will be seeing one of these solutions caving in by this weekend.
Les at least we have something to talk about over the next several weeks. I say we have hit reboot and time to finish this season off with a bang.

I'm right there with ya, Tim! Let's do it!

I have two Dr appts tomorrow but otherwise, I'll try and post as much as I can.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:09 pm**

32 here / CVG with rain. Around a tenth of an inch thus far.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:25 pm**

Latest lightning in the region. White most current

IMG_3171.jpeg

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:26 pm**

Nice run for next week on the 18Z GFS. A better phasing of the energy with snow moving in on Tuesday. It tries like hell on the next wave or two. I like the idea, just needs work. Ok, finally Wed night into Thurs the model comes thru. Man, what a challenge we have coming for next week. It's going to be fun!

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:28 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:25 pm Latest lightning in the region. White most current

IMG_3171.jpeg

Pretty nice temp contrast too. 32 here, LOU in the upper 30s with temps near 50 down by the KY / TN border.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:45 pm**

Oh boy... getting some pingers mixing in with the rain now.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 5:56 pm**

Been pouring for the last 30 minutes and 30 degrees, no problems of course with the warm ground temps

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 6:08 pm**

Freezing drizzle here porches and sidewalks very icey, had to get salt out and salt my porches , my dog slid off the back porch going outside

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 6:19 pm**

Monday/Tuesday system still showing mixing issues for parts of AV country

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 6:57 pm**

Wow impressive precip from a system that didn't look all that great on radar only a few degrees away from getting a half foot of snow lol

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 7:06 pm**

Never know about these warm fronts and this one turned pretty active

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 7:44 pm**

Good Evening and only rain here but the best soaking since I can't remember. Like to hear reports north of here to see if the roads are slick. I was downplaying the frz/rain but I may have spoken too soon. Nothing here just some heavy rains to help clean the streets and sidewalks. I agree Bgoney and warm fronts especially getting closer to spring can really bring up surprises and they get active in the later afternoon hours and a few hours before sunrise. Of course they can get active anytime but those times seem to see the best action. Still really have not studied any storm for next week but busy with several pieces of energy and some decent cold around. Since I have very little football to watch this weekend it gives me a little more time in the weather office lol

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 7:51 pm**

I under est precip too. Models were right, for once...

Temp still holding at 32, all rain

0.69" - CVG
0.61" here
0.41" - Boone Co mesonet

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 7:58 pm**

Hey Les I mentioned .5-1.0 but I also stated models have been too high all season. Yes getting closer to spring and yes the atmosphere got a nice shot of warm air rather far north and when that warmth retreats it still leaves some moisture around which is why this morning even had a touch of light rain. Can we get the higher precip totals to match up with the cold is the next question and again both are available next week but again for me too early to even guess where the storms may form next week or if we just have a front nearby with plenty of overriding moisture which can no doubt lead to more ice than snow depending how deep the cold is and how far south it ends up before slamming on the brakes.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:06 pm**

I like seeing the nao go more towards negative like it did in early January and again that could happen as the blocking can be happening but the models have not picked up on the full extent. We saw within a day how the AO went from a forecast of remaining positive to a big time negative phase nearing what we had in early January. The pna is still slightly positive and again not much change this season. Mjo and the one thing about this season its been on the move for the most part and not getting stuck into one phase for a period of time. Of course other factors involved like SSW event which again never easy to guess when or what happens afterwards and yes the PV did stretch out earlier this season and patterns do repeat and my guess that is key to the AO really tanking next week.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:10 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:06 pm I like seeing the nao go more towards negative like it did in early January and again that could happen as the blocking can be happening but the models have not picked up on the full extent. We saw within a day how the AO went from a forecast of remaining positive to a big time negative phase nearing what we had in early January. The pna is still slightly positive and again not much change this season. Mjo and the one thing about this season its been on the move for the most part and not getting stuck into one phase for a period of time. Of course other factors involved like SSW event which again never easy to guess when or what happens afterwards and yes the PV did stretch out earlier this season and patterns do repeat and my guess that is key to the AO really tanking next week.

I know Trev is going warmer in the longer term and I always respect his forecasts. The guy is good! But I am leaning colder at this time. I will adjust if the MJO forecast doesn't work out. I like the fact that it hasn't stalled, it is still moving. As long as it does that, I expect this active and cooler pattern to persist. It won't always mean snow with every system, but less of this 60 one day and 30 the next BS.

The end of the 18Z Euro run at CVG for system number one next week... Oh my!

Code: Select all

TUE 12Z 11-FEB  -1.2    -2.8    1022      76     100    0.07     560     542    
TUE 18Z 11-FEB  -2.3    -0.9    1016      92      95    0.57     557     544

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:13 pm**

0.73" - Updated total at CVG for today

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:20 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:13 pm 0.73" - Updated total at CVG for today

Nice to get a nice dose of rain and though I am sure the ground is still frozen some feet below the warmth over the past few days should of helped in getting some of that to work in the ground and not runoff.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:24 pm**

Blizzard warning for parts of the UP of Michigan. Mainly because of some very strong winds and reduced visibility. I know my son is expecting about 1-3 inches but the winds gusting to near 50 later on Thursday.

Posted: **Thu Feb 06, 2025 12:22 am**

I had some thunder and lightning earlier this evening here in Greenville.

Also a fire truck and ambulance came to a cul-de-sac here in my 'hood after the frz rain t-storm came through. Don't know if that call was wx-related or not. Both vehicles left shortly after arrival and with their flashers off which of course surmising is good news.

Currently 30 here in G'ville and progged for around 29 Thurs morning.

Posted: **Thu Feb 06, 2025 12:28 am**

CVG got to 36 and both DAY / CMH 34 on Wed.

Posted: **Thu Feb 06, 2025 4:20 am**

Gfs has 2 snowstorms for us next week!!!

Posted: **Thu Feb 06, 2025 5:23 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:10 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:06 pm I like seeing the nao go more towards negative like it did in early January and again that could happen as the blocking can be happening but the models have not picked up on the full extent. We saw within a day how the AO went from a forecast of remaining positive to a big time negative phase nearing what we had in early January. The pna is still slightly positive and again not much change this season. Mjo and the one thing about this season its been on the move for the most part and not getting stuck into one phase for a period of time. Of course other factors involved like SSW event which again never easy to guess when or what happens afterwards and yes the PV did stretch out earlier this season and patterns do repeat and my guess that is key to the AO really tanking next week.
I know Trev is going warmer in the longer term and I always respect his forecasts. The guy is good! But I am leaning colder at this time. I will adjust if the MJO forecast doesn't work out. I like the fact that it hasn't stalled, it is still moving. As long as it does that, I expect this active and cooler pattern to persist. It won't always mean snow with every system, but less of this 60 one day and 30 the next BS.

The end of the 18Z Euro run at CVG for system number one next week... Oh my!
Code: Select all
TUE 12Z 11-FEB  -1.2    -2.8    1022      76     100    0.07     560     542    
TUE 18Z 11-FEB  -2.3    -0.9    1016      92      95    0.57     557     544    

I wouldn't say I'm going warm, just not as cold as some others. Our official Feb outlook is cold week two, cold w/ moderation week three, and yo-yo week four. So we probably aren't too far off from each other in that respect.

Posted: **Thu Feb 06, 2025 5:30 am**

Rain moving out of AVland, with still T and L to our south ( last 30 minutes)

IMG_3172.jpeg

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