Absolute Vorticity

Good morning! Let us not forget that highs in the U30s today will be the warmest we see for quite sometime. Second... don't forget that little guy for late tonight into the day tomorrow. Fri AM commute could be impacted esp as one goes further north of the River. I still like up to 1" but if you manage to see 1-2" it'll be northern posters IMO for that. Expecting minimal impacts for Cincy. The big ticket item for us will be in the other thread of course. Finally... the arctic air and how long it sticks around as well as future snow chances will all need to be discussed in this thread going forward. A winter weather lovers delight i.e. January 2025!

What happens after the big storm early next week. COLD may be one word to use. If we get a decent snow pack temps will be adjusted downwards next Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Below zero no problem at all and if you get a night of a clear sky and no wind -10 and colder is likely. Models almost always underestimate snow cover when it comes to temps with a snow pack. If somehow the snow is only a few inches then zero seems like a good number but there is going to be snow pack to the north and west so that helps as well.

Late next week into the weekend and again there are pieces of energy that will be around and many times a storm system will track along the southern border of a snow pack. Will keep that in mind as we move forward and of course will not have that info until early next week. Any clippers will be able to produce some snow with very little precip but again no ideal where those pieces of energy may show up

Good Morning and yes talking about the clipper system that is in Iowa at the moment. This piece of energy is stronger than models showed. There is a snow squall warning for some areas of Iowa with this system. Locally up to an inch but places near the I-70 corridor 1-2 inches possible and again this mainly happens at night so no doubt some road issues. This also helps in beefing up the 50/50 low that will be over southeast Canada over the weekend and this along with another low in Ontario should continue to cold air flowing all weekend. Will stop there as the post onward is about the bigger storm for most folks

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 9:16 am Good Morning and yes talking about the clipper system that is in Iowa at the moment. This piece of energy is stronger than models showed. There is a snow squall warning for some areas of Iowa with this system. Locally up to an inch but places near the I-70 corridor 1-2 inches possible and again this mainly happens at night so no doubt some road issues. This also helps in beefing up the 50/50 low that will be over southeast Canada over the weekend and this along with another low in Ontario should continue to cold air flowing all weekend. Will stop there as the post onward is about the bigger storm for most folks

I am in complete agreement Tim. One final thing to add is that the clipper also brings in a fresh batch of cold air for this weekend. So this system is the table setter for the bigger one in the other thread.

SPS issued for tomorrow for our S areas.

...WINTER WEATHER TO AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE...

An area of snow will cross the region tonight, starting around
midnight and ending Monday morning. Accumulations will be under an
inch, with generally a dusting to a quarter inch over Kentucky
south of the Cincinnati metro area. To the east and north of
Cincinnati, a half inch to an inch is expected.

This snow will fall overnight and is expected to tail off near or
shortly after the morning commute. Road conditions are expected to
negatively impact driving overnight and early Monday.


Winter Weather Advisory for the northern counties with 1-2" expected.


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations from one to two
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Indiana and central, south
central, southwest, and west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions that will impact the Friday morning commute.

Winter weather advisory for the clipper heading this way. The area is just north of Cvg with both Dayton and Columbus in the advisory. This makes sense and don't be surprised they add a few more counties before all is said and done. Saw that burst earlier in Iowa plus we have some added precip trying to work in from the southwest. These clippers are tricky but can produce problems especially late at night and early morning. More snow on the ground does not hurt the Sunday/Monday system

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 3:17 pm Winter weather advisory for the clipper heading this way. The area is just north of Cvg with both Dayton and Columbus in the advisory. This makes sense and don't be surprised they add a few more counties before all is said and done. Saw that burst earlier in Iowa plus we have some added precip trying to work in from the southwest. These clippers are tricky but can produce problems especially late at night and early morning. More snow on the ground does not hurt the Sunday/Monday system

Would love to see areas to our NE get the best snow with this clipper. Then, our cold NE winds would be blowing over snow covered ground for the big ticket item. This can sometimes help with the thermals but if the WAA is strong enough, it won't make any difference though.

Snow is closing in on IND with the little guy system. We should see snow around here after midnight thru the AM rush with most locations done by late morning.

Looking ahead... arctic air moves in behind the big storm in the other thread. What do you guys think about when looking at the end of next week? A clipper diving in from the NW with our next shot of arctic air and something trying to come out of the Gulf. Nothing has phased on the guidance as of yet, but man it is not far off from doing so if you look at the 400 MB maps. We'll see. If something phases, it'll be a monster! Bigger then the current one we're tracking.


18Z GFS - The ridge out west is perfect it is just a timing issue between the two short waves. Being a week out, that could potentially correct itself?

CVG reached 40, DAY 37 and CMH 33 today.

Happy Friday all! Light snow out there this morning. Be careful esp up north. Then we await our big ticket item!

A good dusting here

Good Morning and of course the big news is the upcoming storm but starting to see changes in the models further out and the pattern imo is still great for a few more storms later next week into the following week. With snow on the ground low pressure loves to follow the southern end of the snow pack. May be the best 1st half of January that we have seen in years if not decades.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:30 am Good Morning and of course the big news is the upcoming storm but starting to see changes in the models further out and the pattern imo is still great for a few more storms later next week into the following week. With snow on the ground low pressure loves to follow the southern end of the snow pack. May be the best 1st half of January that we have seen in years if not decades.

The AI Euro sure looked more interesting for the end of next week. I continue to watch that time period for the next potential with a clipper diving in from the NW and phasing with a low coming up from the Gulf. Right now, a very low chance, but it's not zero.

Just a dusting here but where they didn’t salt, icy roads prevailed. Probably a rookie in a pickup in the ditch on my road. Those guys learn the hard way if you don’t have proper weight in the bed, it’s about as bad a vehicle you can drive in icy conditions, 4 wheel or not.

So far after several days of light snow and wet snow, the dry powdery, heavy at times snow has arrived.
We have about a 5 or so inch snow pack, with another 12++ plus inches likely by late tomorrow.

Wow Jeff! You will be up to your eye balls in snow with all of the LES action you've been receiving. Awesome stuff!

Check out the 12Z GFS towards the end of next week. That is the next potential window to keep an eye on that I keep mentioning. Euro AI started it, and today's GFS concurs.

Obviously, the main chatter will be in our storm thread for a while... and rightfully so! I wanted to quickly mention the longer term. All I can say is WOW! Plenty of cold air to work with and an active N and S jet stream. All we need is something to phase correctly and whamo! Watching Jan 10-11th period as well as 13-14th. Days will adjust but you get the idea. Over the next 7-10 days that's the pattern. After that, can we keep it going or do we moderate some? I say we go thru the 20th then moderate. We'll see how that call goes or doesn't go. Anyway, the bottom line, the next 2 weeks will be fun!

CVG got to 36, DAY 34 and CMH 32 today.

Yes all eyes are on the storm but temps in the middle of next week and zero is a shoe in but I expect if we get more than 6 inches of snow then one morning if we get a light wind and a clear sky this is when you can hit -10 -15 even at CVG. Models will pick up on that early next week but its going to be downright frigid.

Btw the winds will pick up Monday as well so that will add to the fun. I believe also the snow on Monday will become a drier snow as well and any highway or expressway that happens to be cleared will have the blowing of snow across the roads and yes visibility could be an issue as well.

This storm has everything and again once in a 5 year time period to see one this widespread in our area. Maybe 1 in 10 years so going to enjoy every minute.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:15 pm Yes all eyes are on the storm but temps in the middle of next week and zero is a shoe in but I expect if we get more than 6 inches of snow then one morning if we get a light wind and a clear sky this is when you can hit -10 -15 even at CVG. Models will pick up on that early next week but its going to be downright frigid.

Btw the winds will pick up Monday as well so that will add to the fun. I believe also the snow on Monday will become a drier snow as well and any highway or expressway that happens to be cleared will have the blowing of snow across the roads and yes visibility could be an issue as well.

This storm has everything and again once in a 5 year time period to see one this widespread in our area. Maybe 1 in 10 years so going to enjoy every minute.

Strongly agree. You can already go with a high in the mid teens and lows around 0 as you said for the coldest point. If we get clobbered, below zero at night and single digits 10ish during the day is a guarantee! We will have a snowpack for like a week plus if everything works out. A rarity anymore lol

The signal for another thread starting system is growing for next Fri / Sat January 9-10th. Not going to make a thread until we get past this one but it is interesting nonetheless. The degree of phasing between a clipper and a low coming from the Gulf will determine low track, strength, and how much QPF we have to work with in the cold sector on the NW side of the precip shield. Instead of a west to east movement, this will be your traditional SW to NE contour.

Figures! My son's birthday is 1/11, mine is 1/12, the wife booked the three of us reservations at Jeff Ruby's downtown for Saturday. But if it means we are finally NOT in the friggin hole of the Donut around here, so be it!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:39 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:15 pm Yes all eyes are on the storm but temps in the middle of next week and zero is a shoe in but I expect if we get more than 6 inches of snow then one morning if we get a light wind and a clear sky this is when you can hit -10 -15 even at CVG. Models will pick up on that early next week but its going to be downright frigid.

Btw the winds will pick up Monday as well so that will add to the fun. I believe also the snow on Monday will become a drier snow as well and any highway or expressway that happens to be cleared will have the blowing of snow across the roads and yes visibility could be an issue as well.

This storm has everything and again once in a 5 year time period to see one this widespread in our area. Maybe 1 in 10 years so going to enjoy every minute.

Strongly agree. You can already go with a high in the mid teens and lows around 0 as you said for the coldest point. If we get clobbered, below zero at night and single digits 10ish during the day is a guarantee! We will have a snowpack for like a week plus if everything works out. A rarity anymore lol

This is another part that has me somewhat worried, the builder put our laundry tub in our garage, I have to be very on top of it to make sure we don't freeze up and burst a pipe.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 1:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:39 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 8:15 pm Yes all eyes are on the storm but temps in the middle of next week and zero is a shoe in but I expect if we get more than 6 inches of snow then one morning if we get a light wind and a clear sky this is when you can hit -10 -15 even at CVG. Models will pick up on that early next week but its going to be downright frigid.

Btw the winds will pick up Monday as well so that will add to the fun. I believe also the snow on Monday will become a drier snow as well and any highway or expressway that happens to be cleared will have the blowing of snow across the roads and yes visibility could be an issue as well.

This storm has everything and again once in a 5 year time period to see one this widespread in our area. Maybe 1 in 10 years so going to enjoy every minute.

Strongly agree. You can already go with a high in the mid teens and lows around 0 as you said for the coldest point. If we get clobbered, below zero at night and single digits 10ish during the day is a guarantee! We will have a snowpack for like a week plus if everything works out. A rarity anymore lol

This is another part that has me somewhat worried, the builder put our laundry tub in our garage, I have to be very on top of it to make sure we don't freeze up and burst a pipe.

I have the front garden hose in my garage as well as the water line going to the ice machine in the upstairs freezer. Used to put a spot light on it when it got down below 10, but now that the garage is better insulated and a new door seal, I have not had to do that. The old door we had was wooden, awful! But the newer one is insulated so it's much better!