Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Great Map and this really is great news. Keeping the cold on this side of the planet makes a huge difference in winter and I see no reason to change until later in the winter season.
Agreed. This also tells me that we may not blow torch when we do get warm. Also, once things change back, the cold will be available as well.
And why it will be crucial the MJO fights through the Pacific forcing the cold to release into the lower 48tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:00 amAgreed. This also tells me that we may not blow torch when we do get warm. Also, once things change back, the cold will be available as well.
I agree and when you see the changes in east pacific next week to a colder look this brings up storminess in that area which should head east through the pacific and get in here with the colder changes late in the month. I know Brian mentioned starting around the 20th for a change back to colder air and I really have it after Christmas. Usually we get a couple of storms out west that become decent storms and slow down the process. Good times headed this way if you love winter imo and could be the best we have seen in years especially in the heart of winter which for me is late Dec-early FebBgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:04 amAnd why it will be crucial the MJO fights through the Pacific forcing the cold to release into the lower 48tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:00 amAgreed. This also tells me that we may not blow torch when we do get warm. Also, once things change back, the cold will be available as well.
Absolutely! As long as the MJO keeps moving and doesn't crap out on us, then the timing I have mentioned on here should work out nicely.Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:04 amAnd why it will be crucial the MJO fights through the Pacific forcing the cold to release into the lower 48tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:00 amAgreed. This also tells me that we may not blow torch when we do get warm. Also, once things change back, the cold will be available as well.
Nice find Matt! I'm no expert by any means, but I think what AI modeling is trying to do, esp the folks at ECMWF, is to take out the model biases in an attempt to improve forecast accuracy. Have the machine learn that when certain atmospheric things are present, the weather outcome that day is this. (As an example). I'm curious to see how good AI modeling does. We know that the ECMWF AI hasn't been doing too bad. It's had its failure's at times jut like the standard models do, but the question is, does AI learn from its mistakes? That is what I'd like to see occur for better accuracy.BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:50 am Interesting read -
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/12 ... newsletter
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:45 amBgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:04 amI agree with the most likely date of a return to winter cold for the OV is sometime after Christmas atm . MJO, even if the Best case scenario (a big if) plays out , a phase 7 doesn’t occur until around Christmas and then with a lag effect . Although the lag imo would be shorter than when the MJO reached the cold phases recently, simply because Canada is properly cold this go round. Instead of a 10-15 day lag , it could be 5-8. All of course dependent on reaching 7tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 10:00 amI agree and when you see the changes in east pacific next week to a colder look this brings up storminess in that area which should head east through the pacific and get in here with the colder changes late in the month. I know Brian mentioned starting around the 20th for a change back to colder air and I really have it after Christmas. Usually we get a couple of storms out west that become decent storms and slow down the process. Good times headed this way if you love winter imo and could be the best we have seen in years especially in the heart of winter which for me is late Dec-early Feb
Les I am with Brian on this point about the pattern later next week and yes a second storm is likely but where will it form and at this point and its really a 50/50 shot. Not much of a prediction lol no but many times with this shot of cold behind the first system it would dive to the gom and a storm goes up the east coast but since there is very little snow in the central and northern plains and anywhere west of here the cold may not go quite as far south and this then would lean to a storm closer to the mountains. That is why 50/50 and hopefully we can figure this out by early next week.
It is definitely a thread the needle / timing issue as it usually is for our area. I am going with low chances, but it is not zero that is for sure.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 11:32 amLes I am with Brian on this point about the pattern later next week and yes a second storm is likely but where will it form and at this point and its really a 50/50 shot. Not much of a prediction lol no but many times with this shot of cold behind the first system it would dive to the gom and a storm goes up the east coast but since there is very little snow in the central and northern plains and anywhere west of here the cold may not go quite as far south and this then would lean to a storm closer to the mountains. That is why 50/50 and hopefully we can figure this out by early next week.
1038 MB arctic high is still over the Plains off to the west while a strong low of 994 MB spins over Maine. That low will continue lifting NE and as the high builds in, winds should begin to diminish this evening. Wind chills should be closer to the actual air temp esp by tomorrow. I would prepare for wind chills to be in that 10 to 15 degree range for the most part for this evening. WC is still 8 at CVG as of the 1pm reading as winds are still gusting to 24 mph so it'll be a little while yet before we see this occur.
Same here. I don't know the criteria for CPS is, but for Boone Co schools in KY where I live, typically they won't delay or close for the cold unless a wind chill warning is issued by ILN. ILN now calls it cold weather advisory or whatever.
Is it close to a LES zone?tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 5:22 pm The situation for next week is even more complex if you believe the 18Z GFS. The lead wave comes out on Monday with very little rain as the wave is very weak. Low number two on Tues is also weak and passes thru the area with rain. Then, a third low comes up from the Gulf and tracks up the Eastern side of the Apps changing it over to snow. Eastern counties would benefit the most from that.
I'm going out of town tomorrow for Michigan, leaving early, and will be back on Sunday at some point. If things start turning for the better while I am gone, don't be afraid to start up a thread! If I do not see a thread when I come back then it's either still a complex deal or it's a dud!
Unfortunately no. They get a band every now and then if the band is strong enough to come inland but that's about it. They have about 2" on the ground right now from the arctic front.Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 5:35 pmIs it close to a LES zone?tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 5:22 pm The situation for next week is even more complex if you believe the 18Z GFS. The lead wave comes out on Monday with very little rain as the wave is very weak. Low number two on Tues is also weak and passes thru the area with rain. Then, a third low comes up from the Gulf and tracks up the Eastern side of the Apps changing it over to snow. Eastern counties would benefit the most from that.
I'm going out of town tomorrow for Michigan, leaving early, and will be back on Sunday at some point. If things start turning for the better while I am gone, don't be afraid to start up a thread! If I do not see a thread when I come back then it's either still a complex deal or it's a dud!
Congrats to your Lions on officially clinching a playoff spot via a win over the Cheese Heads! 