December 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

The well advertised above normal temps anomaly ( 5 day average) for mid month . Notice a reinforcing shot of cold for Canada during the same period. From EU ensembles

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[tpweather]

The well advertised above normal temps anomaly ( 5 day average) for mid month . Notice a reinforcing shot of cold for Canada during the same period. From EU ensembles




IMG_2761.jpeg

Great Map and this really is great news. Keeping the cold on this side of the planet makes a huge difference in winter and I see no reason to change until later in the winter season.

[tron777]

The well advertised above normal temps anomaly ( 5 day average) for mid month . Notice a reinforcing shot of cold for Canada during the same period. From EU ensembles




IMG_2761.jpeg

Great Map and this really is great news. Keeping the cold on this side of the planet makes a huge difference in winter and I see no reason to change until later in the winter season.

Agreed. This also tells me that we may not blow torch when we do get warm. Also, once things change back, the cold will be available as well.

[Bgoney]

The well advertised above normal temps anomaly ( 5 day average) for mid month . Notice a reinforcing shot of cold for Canada during the same period. From EU ensembles




IMG_2761.jpeg

Great Map and this really is great news. Keeping the cold on this side of the planet makes a huge difference in winter and I see no reason to change until later in the winter season.

Agreed. This also tells me that we may not blow torch when we do get warm. Also, once things change back, the cold will be available as well.

And why it will be crucial the MJO fights through the Pacific forcing the cold to release into the lower 48

[tron777]

[tpweather]

The well advertised above normal temps anomaly ( 5 day average) for mid month . Notice a reinforcing shot of cold for Canada during the same period. From EU ensembles




IMG_2761.jpeg

Great Map and this really is great news. Keeping the cold on this side of the planet makes a huge difference in winter and I see no reason to change until later in the winter season.

Agreed. This also tells me that we may not blow torch when we do get warm. Also, once things change back, the cold will be available as well.

And why it will be crucial the MJO fights through the Pacific forcing the cold to release into the lower 48

I agree and when you see the changes in east pacific next week to a colder look this brings up storminess in that area which should head east through the pacific and get in here with the colder changes late in the month. I know Brian mentioned starting around the 20th for a change back to colder air and I really have it after Christmas. Usually we get a couple of storms out west that become decent storms and slow down the process. Good times headed this way if you love winter imo and could be the best we have seen in years especially in the heart of winter which for me is late Dec-early Feb

[BookNerdCarp]

Interesting read -

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/12 ... newsletter

[tron777]

The well advertised above normal temps anomaly ( 5 day average) for mid month . Notice a reinforcing shot of cold for Canada during the same period. From EU ensembles




IMG_2761.jpeg

Great Map and this really is great news. Keeping the cold on this side of the planet makes a huge difference in winter and I see no reason to change until later in the winter season.

Agreed. This also tells me that we may not blow torch when we do get warm. Also, once things change back, the cold will be available as well.

And why it will be crucial the MJO fights through the Pacific forcing the cold to release into the lower 48

Absolutely! As long as the MJO keeps moving and doesn't crap out on us, then the timing I have mentioned on here should work out nicely.

[tron777]

Interesting read -

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/12 ... newsletter

Nice find Matt! I'm no expert by any means, but I think what AI modeling is trying to do, esp the folks at ECMWF, is to take out the model biases in an attempt to improve forecast accuracy. Have the machine learn that when certain atmospheric things are present, the weather outcome that day is this. (As an example). I'm curious to see how good AI modeling does. We know that the ECMWF AI hasn't been doing too bad. It's had its failure's at times jut like the standard models do, but the question is, does AI learn from its mistakes? That is what I'd like to see occur for better accuracy.

[Bgoney]

The well advertised above normal temps anomaly ( 5 day average) for mid month . Notice a reinforcing shot of cold for Canada during the same period. From EU ensembles

And why it will be crucial the MJO fights through the Pacific forcing the cold to release into the lower 48

I agree and when you see the changes in east pacific next week to a colder look this brings up storminess in that area which should head east through the pacific and get in here with the colder changes late in the month. I know Brian mentioned starting around the 20th for a change back to colder air and I really have it after Christmas. Usually we get a couple of storms out west that become decent storms and slow down the process. Good times headed this way if you love winter imo and could be the best we have seen in years especially in the heart of winter which for me is late Dec-early Feb

I agree with the most likely date of a return to winter cold for the OV is sometime after Christmas atm . MJO, even if the Best case scenario (a big if) plays out , a phase 7 doesn’t occur until around Christmas and then with a lag effect . Although the lag imo would be shorter than when the MJO reached the cold phases recently, simply because Canada is properly cold this go round. Instead of a 10-15 day lag , it could be 5-8. All of course dependent on reaching 7

[tron777]

After the Sun night / Mon rain maker, the next system is still TBD if it occurs at all. Models continue to wax and wane on the idea of that secondary storm for Wed / Thurs time period.

[tpweather]

After the Sun night / Mon rain maker, the next system is still TBD if it occurs at all. Models continue to wax and wane on the idea of that secondary storm for Wed / Thurs time period.

Les I am with Brian on this point about the pattern later next week and yes a second storm is likely but where will it form and at this point and its really a 50/50 shot. Not much of a prediction lol no but many times with this shot of cold behind the first system it would dive to the gom and a storm goes up the east coast but since there is very little snow in the central and northern plains and anywhere west of here the cold may not go quite as far south and this then would lean to a storm closer to the mountains. That is why 50/50 and hopefully we can figure this out by early next week.

[tron777]

After the Sun night / Mon rain maker, the next system is still TBD if it occurs at all. Models continue to wax and wane on the idea of that secondary storm for Wed / Thurs time period.

Les I am with Brian on this point about the pattern later next week and yes a second storm is likely but where will it form and at this point and its really a 50/50 shot. Not much of a prediction lol no but many times with this shot of cold behind the first system it would dive to the gom and a storm goes up the east coast but since there is very little snow in the central and northern plains and anywhere west of here the cold may not go quite as far south and this then would lean to a storm closer to the mountains. That is why 50/50 and hopefully we can figure this out by early next week.

It is definitely a thread the needle / timing issue as it usually is for our area. I am going with low chances, but it is not zero that is for sure.

[BookNerdCarp]

What do we see wind chills dropping this evening?

[tpweather]

I believe the temp will drop to 12-15 degrees tonight but wind chills probably more like 7-10 degrees so warmer than last night and this morning

[tron777]

What do we see wind chills dropping this evening?

1038 MB arctic high is still over the Plains off to the west while a strong low of 994 MB spins over Maine. That low will continue lifting NE and as the high builds in, winds should begin to diminish this evening. Wind chills should be closer to the actual air temp esp by tomorrow. I would prepare for wind chills to be in that 10 to 15 degree range for the most part for this evening. WC is still 8 at CVG as of the 1pm reading as winds are still gusting to 24 mph so it'll be a little while yet before we see this occur.

[Bgoney]

Wow I just saw that CPS was closed today due the cold . I don’t know why stuff like this continues to shock me . I’ll never learn…..and neither will CPS students

[tron777]

Wow I just saw that CPS was closed today due the cold . I don’t know why stuff like this continues to shock me . I’ll never learn…..and neither will CPS students

Same here. I don't know the criteria for CPS is, but for Boone Co schools in KY where I live, typically they won't delay or close for the cold unless a wind chill warning is issued by ILN. ILN now calls it cold weather advisory or whatever.

[tron777]

The situation for next week is even more complex if you believe the 18Z GFS. The lead wave comes out on Monday with very little rain as the wave is very weak. Low number two on Tues is also weak and passes thru the area with rain. Then, a third low comes up from the Gulf and tracks up the Eastern side of the Apps changing it over to snow. Eastern counties would benefit the most from that.

I'm going out of town tomorrow for Michigan, leaving early, and will be back on Sunday at some point. If things start turning for the better while I am gone, don't be afraid to start up a thread! If I do not see a thread when I come back then it's either still a complex deal or it's a dud!

[Bgoney]

The situation for next week is even more complex if you believe the 18Z GFS. The lead wave comes out on Monday with very little rain as the wave is very weak. Low number two on Tues is also weak and passes thru the area with rain. Then, a third low comes up from the Gulf and tracks up the Eastern side of the Apps changing it over to snow. Eastern counties would benefit the most from that.

I'm going out of town tomorrow for Michigan, leaving early, and will be back on Sunday at some point. If things start turning for the better while I am gone, don't be afraid to start up a thread! If I do not see a thread when I come back then it's either still a complex deal or it's a dud!

Is it close to a LES zone?

[tron777]

The situation for next week is even more complex if you believe the 18Z GFS. The lead wave comes out on Monday with very little rain as the wave is very weak. Low number two on Tues is also weak and passes thru the area with rain. Then, a third low comes up from the Gulf and tracks up the Eastern side of the Apps changing it over to snow. Eastern counties would benefit the most from that.

I'm going out of town tomorrow for Michigan, leaving early, and will be back on Sunday at some point. If things start turning for the better while I am gone, don't be afraid to start up a thread! If I do not see a thread when I come back then it's either still a complex deal or it's a dud!

Is it close to a LES zone?

Unfortunately no. They get a band every now and then if the band is strong enough to come inland but that's about it. They have about 2" on the ground right now from the arctic front.

[MVWxObserver]

Have a great trip Bro! Congrats to your Lions on officially clinching a playoff spot via a win over the Cheese Heads!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 43, DAY 31 and CMH 38 in the predawn Thurs.

[Bgoney]

Models have been remarkably consistent early on with the systems for late Sunday into Wednesday. Late Sunday into Monday rains, showers for Tuesday and the dreaded cold chasing the moisture scenario for Wednesday with possible snow showers. Room for improvement for Wednesday? Possibly. But need to start trending that way on the models soon

[Bgoney]

It’s been an impressive cold shot east of the Mississippi, especially for the SE US with numerous near record/record cold . More freezes in North Florida . Lots of single digit temps in Kentucky this morning !!! Only thing missing was snow for anyone outside of the Great Lakes /Mtn. regions.

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