Great Map and it shows as well that western Canada is doing better this year and of course the rocky mountain states much better in terms of snow from last year as well. Greenland which has been below normal in temps and above normal in snowfall all year long and one reason for the upcoming winter I expect some of the cold we grab hold of to be from that region though this puts us at the western edge of cold air which is something I put into my winter forecast. I agree about some decent highs in Canada but the pattern even in Siberia has been running about 2-3 weeks behind and just in the past week or two we are seeing those strong highs in Siberia. So yes the overall pattern in recent years is having warmer weather lasting longer into the fall season but colder weather lasting long into the early spring time period. Why and sure many ideals but not sure if they are correct as this is fairly new in the overall scheme of things.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:29 am
by tron777
The +QBO continues to rise now at +11.64 for the October reading at 30 MB. Solar activity also remains very active. The -PDO has gotten stronger as we saw yesterday, Instead of Where's Waldo we maybe talking about Where's Winter? Hopefully we see some changes going into December, but as it stands now, I see no changes coming for November. I've been hopeful on the last week of the month changing but man... even that isn't looking good. It's bad when the fantasy range isn't producing anything of note.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:40 am
by tpweather
Les I am still keeping the same time period and what I do expect is the NAO imo will turn negative for a period of time and this will give us a nice cold shot. This at the time looks to be the upcoming pattern with milder than normal for the entire winter but cold shots mainly due to the NAO going negative 3 or 4 times this winter. If we can get the AO to hit negative several times that will help as well. The PV and very strong at the moment and hopefully getting some intrusions over the winter but as we know that is hard to predict even a few weeks out.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:51 am
by Bgoney
First 6 days of November move into the top ten warmest max temp and mean temp .
IMG_2590.jpeg
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:35 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:40 am
Les I am still keeping the same time period and what I do expect is the NAO imo will turn negative for a period of time and this will give us a nice cold shot. This at the time looks to be the upcoming pattern with milder than normal for the entire winter but cold shots mainly due to the NAO going negative 3 or 4 times this winter. If we can get the AO to hit negative several times that will help as well. The PV and very strong at the moment and hopefully getting some intrusions over the winter but as we know that is hard to predict even a few weeks out.
IMO Tim, seeing a -EPO is more important to get Canada cold and then potentially the Central / Eastern US. As long as the EPO stays positive, Canada won't get all that cold. A -NAO is good to lock in a pattern but if the pattern is warm, a -NAO would not help us to get colder.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:42 am
by dce
At least we know it's possible for the MJO to get into phase 8 with this record breaking -PDO and cooler waters in that area of the Pacific. We will see if this can happen in the winter months. Hey, just looking for any signs of hope here.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:48 am
by tron777
dce wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:42 am
At least we know it's possible for the MJO to get into phase 8 with this record breaking -PDO and cooler waters in that area of the Pacific. We will see if this can happen in the winter months. Hey, just looking for any signs of hope here.
I would feel better if the MJO wave was stronger and actually made it into Phases 1 and 2.
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:40 am
Les I am still keeping the same time period and what I do expect is the NAO imo will turn negative for a period of time and this will give us a nice cold shot. This at the time looks to be the upcoming pattern with milder than normal for the entire winter but cold shots mainly due to the NAO going negative 3 or 4 times this winter. If we can get the AO to hit negative several times that will help as well. The PV and very strong at the moment and hopefully getting some intrusions over the winter but as we know that is hard to predict even a few weeks out.
IMO Tim, seeing a -EPO is more important to get Canada cold and then potentially the Central / Eastern US. As long as the EPO stays positive, Canada won't get all that cold. A -NAO is good to lock in a pattern but if the pattern is warm, a -NAO would not help us to get colder.
Hey Les and we can disagree a little on this and I agree about the -epo is key to get cold from western and northwest Canada and even north central Canada but you can get a -NAO because of eastern Canada getting cold and that can flow into the eastern 1/3 of the country. Mid-September to mid-Oct was a -nao and if the tropics were not busy we would have been much cooler and the northeast and eastern Canada were cooler than normal.
Will we get the -nao this winter and I believe yes but how long each time is key and there will be a fight of pacific air but that also sets up a boundary near us at times and why I believe clippers will be on the higher side in terms of numbers. I believe the northeast corner of the country is going to have a nice year in terms of snowfall but will gradually decrease the further south and west which includes us so being on the correct side of a few clippers this season is key to my snowfall prediction.
Of course other items will come into play as well and timing of any of these is key. Will watch to see if the NAO heads towards negative late in November and early December. Like you mentioned the mjo can override the pattern as well and many times will but just not sure exactly where the mjo will be later this month
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:40 am
Les I am still keeping the same time period and what I do expect is the NAO imo will turn negative for a period of time and this will give us a nice cold shot. This at the time looks to be the upcoming pattern with milder than normal for the entire winter but cold shots mainly due to the NAO going negative 3 or 4 times this winter. If we can get the AO to hit negative several times that will help as well. The PV and very strong at the moment and hopefully getting some intrusions over the winter but as we know that is hard to predict even a few weeks out.
IMO Tim, seeing a -EPO is more important to get Canada cold and then potentially the Central / Eastern US. As long as the EPO stays positive, Canada won't get all that cold. A -NAO is good to lock in a pattern but if the pattern is warm, a -NAO would not help us to get colder.
Hey Les and we can disagree a little on this and I agree about the -epo is key to get cold from western and northwest Canada and even north central Canada but you can get a -NAO because of eastern Canada getting cold and that can flow into the eastern 1/3 of the country. Mid-September to mid-Oct was a -nao and if the tropics were not busy we would have been much cooler and the northeast and eastern Canada were cooler than normal.
Will we get the -nao this winter and I believe yes but how long each time is key and there will be a fight of pacific air but that also sets up a boundary near us at times and why I believe clippers will be on the higher side in terms of numbers. I believe the northeast corner of the country is going to have a nice year in terms of snowfall but will gradually decrease the further south and west which includes us so being on the correct side of a few clippers this season is key to my snowfall prediction.
Of course other items will come into play as well and timing of any of these is key. Will watch to see if the NAO heads towards negative late in November and early December. Like you mentioned the mjo can override the pattern as well and many times will but just not sure exactly where the mjo will be later this month
Hey Tim... your thoughts are right. You can get cold air via a -NAO. However, to get a colder pattern that is more sustainable IMO you need to get a -EPO going to promote cross polar flow and to fill up Canada with cold, That is why I think the Pacific pattern is more important. Again you're not wrong with your thoughts. I am just stating what my preferences are which is to get a -EPO over a -NAO.
dce wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:42 am
At least we know it's possible for the MJO to get into phase 8 with this record breaking -PDO and cooler waters in that area of the Pacific. We will see if this can happen in the winter months. Hey, just looking for any signs of hope here.
I would feel better if the MJO wave was stronger and actually made it into Phases 1 and 2.
I would too. Last winter we couldn't get the MJO to hit phase 8 for anything. If it did get there it went immediately into the circle of death and ultimately back out into the warm phases. At least we are seeing it stuck in phase 8 for a little while which we didn't see last year. I haven't seen you this pessimistic at this time of year in a long time. But hey, with the stretch of winters we've had the last few years, who wouldn't be with the pattern we're seeing?
dce wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:42 am
At least we know it's possible for the MJO to get into phase 8 with this record breaking -PDO and cooler waters in that area of the Pacific. We will see if this can happen in the winter months. Hey, just looking for any signs of hope here.
I would feel better if the MJO wave was stronger and actually made it into Phases 1 and 2.
I would too. Last winter we couldn't get the MJO to hit phase 8 for anything. If it did get there it went immediately into the circle of death and ultimately back out into the warm phases. At least we are seeing it stuck in phase 8 for a little while which we didn't see last year. I haven't seen you this pessimistic at this time of year in a long time. But hey, with the stretch of winters we've had the last few years, who wouldn't be with the pattern we're seeing?
I know! I am usually way more optimistic. But with the run of bad luck we've been on and seeing a pattern that yields nothing but bad luck, it is hard to get too excited about the future.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 1:36 pm
by Bgoney
A bit of an uptick in qpf for the weekend from the 12z run. I do like the potential of seeing some higher totals than yesterday’s event, especially for Ohio which was largely in the .25-50” range. We didn’t buy those higher amounts from the models last time , but since the Blob of showers will be coming more from out of the SW , than yesterday’s mostly from the west , it s a little more encouraging. Anything from the west all summer and fall long has not produced a whole lot of Qpf for us this year. So , we’ll see if Ohio can get more out of our next opportunity come the weekend
dce wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:42 am
At least we know it's possible for the MJO to get into phase 8 with this record breaking -PDO and cooler waters in that area of the Pacific. We will see if this can happen in the winter months. Hey, just looking for any signs of hope here.
I would feel better if the MJO wave was stronger and actually made it into Phases 1 and 2.
I would too. Last winter we couldn't get the MJO to hit phase 8 for anything. If it did get there it went immediately into the circle of death and ultimately back out into the warm phases. At least we are seeing it stuck in phase 8 for a little while which we didn't see last year. I haven't seen you this pessimistic at this time of year in a long time. But hey, with the stretch of winters we've had the last few years, who wouldn't be with the pattern we're seeing?
I know! I am usually way more optimistic. But with the run of bad luck we've been on and seeing a pattern that yields nothing but bad luck, it is hard to get too excited about the future.
dce wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:42 am
At least we know it's possible for the MJO to get into phase 8 with this record breaking -PDO and cooler waters in that area of the Pacific. We will see if this can happen in the winter months. Hey, just looking for any signs of hope here.
I would feel better if the MJO wave was stronger and actually made it into Phases 1 and 2.
I would too. Last winter we couldn't get the MJO to hit phase 8 for anything. If it did get there it went immediately into the circle of death and ultimately back out into the warm phases. At least we are seeing it stuck in phase 8 for a little while which we didn't see last year. I haven't seen you this pessimistic at this time of year in a long time. But hey, with the stretch of winters we've had the last few years, who wouldn't be with the pattern we're seeing?
I know! I am usually way more optimistic. But with the run of bad luck we've been on and seeing a pattern that yields nothing but bad luck, it is hard to get too excited about the future.
We'll get something though. Remember, the best snow months climowise are usually Jan and Feb so anything prior to Jan is a bonus anyway, right
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:08 pm
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 1:36 pm
A bit of an uptick in qpf for the weekend from the 12z run. I do like the potential of seeing some higher totals than yesterday’s event, especially for Ohio which was largely in the .25-50” range. We didn’t buy those higher amounts from the models last time , but since the Blob of showers will be coming more from out of the SW , than yesterday’s mostly from the west , it s a little more encouraging. Anything from the west all summer and fall long has not produced a whole lot of Qpf for us this year. So , we’ll see if Ohio can get more out of our next opportunity come the weekend
Hey Bgoney and I had no ideal what the models predicted for the last system and I thought we did well on this forum. Had no ideal they were going higher but again I need to look at models more sometimes. Concerning this weekend and I agree about some higher totals and yes even picking up some moisture from the GOM. We did this last time as well but it was not a big shot but enough where I raised my totals. This time at the moment going with .5-1.0 and that may be a little higher to our south but at the moment going with those amounts. Again timing and I am still a big believer of that 4a-8a time period as one where you can add a touch more if you are in the heaviest part of the system. Not sure yet on this timing but will figure that out over the next day or so.
One big item and looking for cold and snow so where else would you look but Saudi Arabia which had snow the past few days. Les we just need to move to get cold and snow
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 1:36 pm
A bit of an uptick in qpf for the weekend from the 12z run. I do like the potential of seeing some higher totals than yesterday’s event, especially for Ohio which was largely in the .25-50” range. We didn’t buy those higher amounts from the models last time , but since the Blob of showers will be coming more from out of the SW , than yesterday’s mostly from the west , it s a little more encouraging. Anything from the west all summer and fall long has not produced a whole lot of Qpf for us this year. So , we’ll see if Ohio can get more out of our next opportunity come the weekend
Hey Bgoney and I had no ideal what the models predicted for the last system and I thought we did well on this forum. Had no ideal they were going higher but again I need to look at models more sometimes. Concerning this weekend and I agree about some higher totals and yes even picking up some moisture from the GOM. We did this last time as well but it was not a big shot but enough where I raised my totals. This time at the moment going with .5-1.0 and that may be a little higher to our south but at the moment going with those amounts. Again timing and I am still a big believer of that 4a-8a time period as one where you can add a touch more if you are in the heaviest part of the system. Not sure yet on this timing but will figure that out over the next day or so.
One big item and looking for cold and snow so where else would you look but Saudi Arabia which had snow the past few days. Les we just need to move to get cold and snow
The highest elevations of the Big Island of Hawaii also had its first snow the other day. Up to 4 feet may fall over the S CO Mountains and NM Mountains as well thru this weekend thanks to a cut off upper low. Even ABQ is expected to get 6" out of the deal and that's down in the valley.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 1:36 pm
A bit of an uptick in qpf for the weekend from the 12z run. I do like the potential of seeing some higher totals than yesterday’s event, especially for Ohio which was largely in the .25-50” range. We didn’t buy those higher amounts from the models last time , but since the Blob of showers will be coming more from out of the SW , than yesterday’s mostly from the west , it s a little more encouraging. Anything from the west all summer and fall long has not produced a whole lot of Qpf for us this year. So , we’ll see if Ohio can get more out of our next opportunity come the weekend
Hey Bgoney and I had no ideal what the models predicted for the last system and I thought we did well on this forum. Had no ideal they were going higher but again I need to look at models more sometimes. Concerning this weekend and I agree about some higher totals and yes even picking up some moisture from the GOM. We did this last time as well but it was not a big shot but enough where I raised my totals. This time at the moment going with .5-1.0 and that may be a little higher to our south but at the moment going with those amounts. Again timing and I am still a big believer of that 4a-8a time period as one where you can add a touch more if you are in the heaviest part of the system. Not sure yet on this timing but will figure that out over the next day or so.
One big item and looking for cold and snow so where else would you look but Saudi Arabia which had snow the past few days. Les we just need to move to get cold and snow
12Z Euro gives CVG an inch of rain for Sunday. One of those moderate all day soaking rains! We need it!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 1:36 pm
A bit of an uptick in qpf for the weekend from the 12z run. I do like the potential of seeing some higher totals than yesterday’s event, especially for Ohio which was largely in the .25-50” range. We didn’t buy those higher amounts from the models last time , but since the Blob of showers will be coming more from out of the SW , than yesterday’s mostly from the west , it s a little more encouraging. Anything from the west all summer and fall long has not produced a whole lot of Qpf for us this year. So , we’ll see if Ohio can get more out of our next opportunity come the weekend
Hey Bgoney and I had no ideal what the models predicted for the last system and I thought we did well on this forum. Had no ideal they were going higher but again I need to look at models more sometimes. Concerning this weekend and I agree about some higher totals and yes even picking up some moisture from the GOM. We did this last time as well but it was not a big shot but enough where I raised my totals. This time at the moment going with .5-1.0 and that may be a little higher to our south but at the moment going with those amounts. Again timing and I am still a big believer of that 4a-8a time period as one where you can add a touch more if you are in the heaviest part of the system. Not sure yet on this timing but will figure that out over the next day or so.
One big item and looking for cold and snow so where else would you look but Saudi Arabia which had snow the past few days. Les we just need to move to get cold and snow
Us peons can’t afford the crystal ball you have. I just have to figure out when NOT to trust the models
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 5:44 pm
by tron777
CVG's daily snowfall record for today was 1.6" from 1991. Sigh... we are a long ways away from that unfortunately. 62 at CVG today, 63 here.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 5:59 pm
by tron777
18Z GFS has well over an inch on Sunday at CVG. Going to be wet taking Mom to Church this coming Sunday.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:17 pm
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 5:44 pm
CVG's daily snowfall record for today was 1.6" from 1991. Sigh... we are a long ways away from that unfortunately. 62 at CVG today, 63 here.
I’m sure our favorite heat miser is enjoying this fall
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 1:36 pm
A bit of an uptick in qpf for the weekend from the 12z run. I do like the potential of seeing some higher totals than yesterday’s event, especially for Ohio which was largely in the .25-50” range. We didn’t buy those higher amounts from the models last time , but since the Blob of showers will be coming more from out of the SW , than yesterday’s mostly from the west , it s a little more encouraging. Anything from the west all summer and fall long has not produced a whole lot of Qpf for us this year. So , we’ll see if Ohio can get more out of our next opportunity come the weekend
Hey Bgoney and I had no ideal what the models predicted for the last system and I thought we did well on this forum. Had no ideal they were going higher but again I need to look at models more sometimes. Concerning this weekend and I agree about some higher totals and yes even picking up some moisture from the GOM. We did this last time as well but it was not a big shot but enough where I raised my totals. This time at the moment going with .5-1.0 and that may be a little higher to our south but at the moment going with those amounts. Again timing and I am still a big believer of that 4a-8a time period as one where you can add a touch more if you are in the heaviest part of the system. Not sure yet on this timing but will figure that out over the next day or so.
One big item and looking for cold and snow so where else would you look but Saudi Arabia which had snow the past few days. Les we just need to move to get cold and snow
Us peons can’t afford the crystal ball you have. I just have to figure out when NOT to trust the models
I wish there was a crystal ball. My problem is not trusting the models and that can cause me headaches. That is one reason I try not to use them much and usually I try and form a forecast and then check the models. If they match I feel good and if they don't then I go back and see what I missed. Just an old man that should try and get into the 21st century. BTW I love the song Crystal Ball from Styx and written by Tommy Shaw
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 5:44 pm
CVG's daily snowfall record for today was 1.6" from 1991. Sigh... we are a long ways away from that unfortunately. 62 at CVG today, 63 here.
I’m sure our favorite heat miser is enjoying this fall
Probably! My allergies sure aren't. We could use a nice killing freeze about now.
Hopefully we see some changes going into December, but as it stands now, I see no changes coming for November. I've been hopeful on the last week of the month changing but man... even that isn't looking good. It's bad when the fantasy range isn't producing anything of note.
