Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:00 am 51 officially at CVG this morning Can we rise 39 more degrees to hit 90? We shall see! Currently 62 as of 8am.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:35 am The big high pressure in central NA that was modeled at the end of August for much of Mid September and beyond is looking good , which is bad news for us





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MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 7:22 am HAPPY BELATED BIG 65TH MATT!!

I'm not that far behind at just 4 more years!

Mjr wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:55 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 7:22 am HAPPY BELATED BIG 65TH MATT!!

I'm not that far behind at just 4 more years!

Yes, 65 plus one day and counting. Thank you Eric
Was sitting on the back porch this morning and thinking about 911.
God Bless The United States of America

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:35 am The big high pressure in central NA that was modeled at the end of August for much of Mid September and beyond is looking good , which is bad news for us

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 9:29 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:35 am The big high pressure in central NA that was modeled at the end of August for much of Mid September and beyond is looking good , which is bad news for us

Agreed. This spells below avg precip and above avg temps for Sept as a whole in my opinion. Lock it in!

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 11:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 9:29 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:35 am The big high pressure in central NA that was modeled at the end of August for much of Mid September and beyond is looking good , which is bad news for us

Agreed. This spells below avg precip and above avg temps for Sept as a whole in my opinion. Lock it in!

Hey Les and we finally disagree on the upcoming pattern. Watched Brian's video and glad he mentioned the possible tropical system off the Carolina coast which I had mentioned earlier this week. How far west can the rain reach and the low must come rather far west because we know those mountains are not easy to cross. One reason I believe we cool down at the end of the month is the trough that is out west and not talking pacific northwest which is common but a deep trough including all of California. That trough will start to lift north and east sometime later next week and this will allow cold fronts to once again start coming out of Canada. I would expect at least one between the 21st and 30th of the month and yes maybe a second cold front. I believe models will catch on to this probably over the weekend or early next week. We do agree on the middle 10 days of the month and a warmer period that should bring us near normal by then but then I believe the last 10 days will finally end up near normal or slightly below normal.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 1:04 pm 83 as of 1pm at CVG.

12Z GFS keeps the bulk of the moisture S of us over Central KY for the system next week. I'm not the least bit impressed.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:34 pm I know its 2 1/2 weeks away but are models showing near average seasonal temps or somewhat above average for the week of 9/23-9/28? Just wondering as my sister from NC will be coming up to see my folks and I during that period.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:27 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 1:04 pm 83 as of 1pm at CVG.

12Z GFS keeps the bulk of the moisture S of us over Central KY for the system next week. I'm not the least bit impressed.

Hey Les and you saw my post that its hard for rain to make it over the mountains but what can happen is rather extensive cloud cover for a couple of days and getting that in mid-September will keep temps below normal during the day and of course above normal at night and once again the temps end up average. So yes the ongoing dry spell will continue to keep daytime temps higher but the overnight lows can fall below normal lows with no problems. Just to add about the system over the Carolina's early next week and one reason its sort of developing is part of the leftover from the current Hurricane is headed that way. Still have a nice jet along the gulf area and of course another reason the Hurricane will lose strength plus the high in the Great Lakes. I heard some folks mention the moisture from Francine is being pushed further southwest and really its just getting drained by the dry air but whats left is not heading southwest but southeast where there is a more favorable conditions. Once again tropical systems are just having a hard time getting going in the middle of the Atlantic and storms are forming near the US mainland seems to be the only option for getting tropical rains this season plus my guess is the jet stream is able to hit these storms in the middle of nowhere and we see this time and time again where there is a decent shot of a storm forming only to be downgraded a few days later.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 4:10 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:34 pm I know its 2 1/2 weeks away but are models showing near average seasonal temps or somewhat above average for the week of 9/23-9/28? Just wondering as my sister from NC will be coming up to see my folks and I during that period.

Eric ,going by the ensembles atm, (Dayton ) a high temp range of 78-85 and low temp range of 57-64.