July 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

The CMC no doubt gets the credit for seeing that path of this system before the other 2 models. The CMC usually gets one or two nice wins in the winter but like I mentioned that model tends to get out of whack in that 24-72 hour period. This time its done well in that period as well. Normally the gfs tends to do better with tropical systems and the Euro not so much. Will watch this during the next few months and see if we are seeing one model outperform the others but this season its the CMC-1 and the other two models-0

I think the Euro was pretty consistent too in showing Beryl's rains potentially coming our way (the model was showing it last week). The GFS was way too SE and it finally came back NW with the track a few days ago. CMC wasn't too bad either to your point Tim. Hopefully we can score a nice soaking this week as the heat looks to turn on by the end of this week and going into this coming weekend.

[tpweather]

The CMC no doubt gets the credit for seeing that path of this system before the other 2 models. The CMC usually gets one or two nice wins in the winter but like I mentioned that model tends to get out of whack in that 24-72 hour period. This time its done well in that period as well. Normally the gfs tends to do better with tropical systems and the Euro not so much. Will watch this during the next few months and see if we are seeing one model outperform the others but this season its the CMC-1 and the other two models-0

I think the Euro was pretty consistent too in showing Beryl's rains potentially coming our way (the model was showing it last week). The GFS was way too SE and it finally came back NW with the track a few days ago. CMC wasn't too bad either to your point Tim. Hopefully we can score a nice soaking this week as the heat looks to turn on by the end of this week and going into this coming weekend.

Hey Les and I was watching the models and the CMC was 1-2 days ahead of the other 2 models bringing the remains into our area. I do give more credit for a model that can get the correct before the other two. Again the CMC will tend to do worse closer to a storm but in this case was never to far away from the actual outcome. I agree the GFS was the worse so far and I say that because it goes back and forth to much. The CMC may not get another hit like this for the remainder of the Hurricane season but so far it has taken a 1-0-0 lead

[tron777]

I checked the EPS and GEFS for the extended range and it looks warm, but not dreadfully hot. The core of the heat ridge stays over the 4 Corners and S Plains states. So we should get a few hot days, then a passing cold front which cools us off for a day or two then we repeat the pattern. There will be the usual have's and have not's with regards to rainfall and convective activity. Looks like a fairly typical summery pattern for us.

[tpweather]

I checked the EPS and GEFS for the extended range and it looks warm, but not dreadfully hot. The core of the heat ridge stays over the 4 Corners and S Plains states. So we should get a few hot days, then a passing cold front which cools us off for a day or two then we repeat the pattern. There will be the usual have's and have not's with regards to rainfall and convective activity. Looks like a fairly typical summery pattern for us.

Hey Les I believe the models will have the heat further east before all is said and done. I believe once the tropical system is out of the USA we will see the shift of the heat further east. A few reasons I believe this will happen and one is I expect a really nice trough to enter the northwestern USA and also with the monsoon season will start to increase in the southwest. Also central Canada becoming warmer this means cold fronts will tend to be in the coastal areas of that nation. By Friday or so lets see how the models are handling the pattern but I can only go by what I have seen in the past and this is my take so far.

[tron777]

I checked the EPS and GEFS for the extended range and it looks warm, but not dreadfully hot. The core of the heat ridge stays over the 4 Corners and S Plains states. So we should get a few hot days, then a passing cold front which cools us off for a day or two then we repeat the pattern. There will be the usual have's and have not's with regards to rainfall and convective activity. Looks like a fairly typical summery pattern for us.

Hey Les I believe the models will have the heat further east before all is said and done. I believe once the tropical system is out of the USA we will see the shift of the heat further east. A few reasons I believe this will happen and one is I expect a really nice trough to enter the northwestern USA and also with the monsoon season will start to increase in the southwest. Also central Canada becoming warmer this means cold fronts will tend to be in the coastal areas of that nation. By Friday or so lets see how the models are handling the pattern but I can only go by what I have seen in the past and this is my take so far.

I was thinking originally after mid month then the heat will be on for a while. Would love to see the heat ridge parked over the West for a while longer to give us better rain chances, but we'll take whatever we an get. I do expect a hotter period though later this month so we are in agreement for sure. It's just a matter of when.

[tpweather]

Les you are correct its always the timing. I see where the northern plains and upper mid-west is already starting to get hot later this week. Nothing record breaking but since they have been void of heat for the most part this tells me the pattern is changing. I do believe the Bermuda High is going to be a big influence this season for us and its tried a couple of times to force its way in only to be repelled by the cool fronts out of Canada. Since I believe the cold front train is coming to a end then the Bermuda High can flex its muscle and if it decides to reside somewhere over the southeast and many times it resides over the Smoky Mountains then we have a hard time of getting any fronts in here unless its from the northeast and even those tend to only make it so far southwest. With a dry ground as well it does not bode well but hopefully we can get some out of the tropical system to help at least in the short term. The rain guage so far this month is short of 1 inch so hopefully we can see an inch and though not enough to end the drought maybe enough to get the grass somewhat green

[tron777]

Les you are correct its always the timing. I see where the northern plains and upper mid-west is already starting to get hot later this week. Nothing record breaking but since they have been void of heat for the most part this tells me the pattern is changing. I do believe the Bermuda High is going to be a big influence this season for us and its tried a couple of times to force its way in only to be repelled by the cool fronts out of Canada. Since I believe the cold front train is coming to a end then the Bermuda High can flex its muscle and if it decides to reside somewhere over the southeast and many times it resides over the Smoky Mountains then we have a hard time of getting any fronts in here unless its from the northeast and even those tend to only make it so far southwest. With a dry ground as well it does not bode well but hopefully we can get some out of the tropical system to help at least in the short term. The rain guage so far this month is short of 1 inch so hopefully we can see an inch and though not enough to end the drought maybe enough to get the grass somewhat green

My lawn is slowly recovering but we can always use more. Fingers crossed for tomorrow and esp on Wednesday! If the tropics get active again, that could potentially help strengthen the Bermuda high too. If it is in control, I would expect tropical systems to sneak underneath it which would make the Gulf and East Coast prone to land falling systems.

[Bgoney]

NAM is still way west with the low compared to GFS/EU

[tron777]

12Z NAM and HRRR are pretty far West with the track of Beryl's remanent low so CVG Land would only get 0.25 to 0.50" range for precip.

[tpweather]

I believe those shorter term models are not catching up to reality. The models were mostly incorrect of where the system hit the coast and was much further north than the models had shown. Imo this leads to a further east track. How much is the question and also when does it get involved with the trough and front locally. So yes I believe its further east than models showed 24 hours ago but by how much and what are the effects by it being further east is still a good question because we know the main shield is north and west of the storm but once it interacts with the trough does this change the dynamics some and we see more showers and thundershowers south and east of the low.

Moisture is not the problem and you can easily get an inch of rain in an hours time and that is one reason we may see a wider than normal range when it comes to rainfall amounts.

[Bgoney]

Expansive high pressure on satellite . NHC still has the low tracking near Indianapolis, so still a bit further west than GFS/EU

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[tpweather]

Expansive high pressure on satellite . NHC still has the low tracking near Indianapolis, so still a bit further west than GFS/EU



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The NCH which usually does a great job with tropical systems had some problems with this system. Maybe because its early July and the past data does not give you much info to go on plus other factors including the trough in the central USA and thankfully for the folks in Texas its there to pull up the system or they would get one of those terrible tropical systems that stays for days and you end up with feet of water instead of inches.

[tron777]

12Z GFS tracks the low from Paducah, to IND to Detroit.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS tracks the low from Paducah, to IND to Detroit.

Les it looks like the CMC is also with the same path. Again what happens once it interacts with the trough of cool front and yes there should be a heavier band to the north and west but one it gets into southwest Kentucky that is when I expect more showers and thundershowers to break out further east. Speed of the system is key as well and so far models are not moving it to quickly. Also Thursday with one last piece of energy from the northwest with probably give us some showers and maybe a thundershower on Thursday as we will still have the atmosphere with leftover moisture.

[tron777]

12Z GFS tracks the low from Paducah, to IND to Detroit.

Les it looks like the CMC is also with the same path. Again what happens once it interacts with the trough of cool front and yes there should be a heavier band to the north and west but one it gets into southwest Kentucky that is when I expect more showers and thundershowers to break out further east. Speed of the system is key as well and so far models are not moving it to quickly. Also Thursday with one last piece of energy from the northwest with probably give us some showers and maybe a thundershower on Thursday as we will still have the atmosphere with leftover moisture.

I think it's pretty clear that the heaviest rains have a good chance at falling to our NW, however I am still hoping for 1/2" out of the deal.

[tpweather]

Les the one item that is somewhat different this time is the system itself was rather far south and when it built up a ridge that was south of us so the storm had to find a weakness. Rather strong ridge in the western states as well. The mid-west though has the weakness plus folks just to the east in W.Virginia and Virginia had some weakness as well. This means the system that normally would travel almost straight up the Mississippi River found a weak spot once it gets further north and is able to head more east/northeast because that is where the soft spot is located. This is not your text book tropical system and my guess why models had problems and also why the NHC was not quite as good as they usually are for these tropical systems.

[tpweather]

One other note is when these systems get really strong and talking CAT 2 or higher they will form nice heights all around but usually north and east of the system. This system was weaker and though the heights got strong in the southeast I believe especially the further east you go and lets use Florida as an example this was more due to the Bermuda High and then folks further west say in Mississippi the heights rose more because of the storm itself. Many times once the Bermuda High gets locked in then these systems coming in from Texas will end up well to west of us but with this one a further eastward track makes sense. I thought a few days ago a tight gradient between heavy rain and very little rain. Then start seeing other items that peaked my interest and understand why some areas south and east of the main low could have some decent rains as well. I agree the heaviest rains should still fall north and west of the system but I have increase higher totals further east. How much is still the question but instead of some areas getting say 3 inches and 75 miles away less than 0.25 I believe the lower totals are higher and more in the 0.75-1.0

[tpweather]

Dew points are rising quickly and though we are still in the mid 60's they have risen to the mid 70's in southwest Kentucky. We should be in the low 70's by this evening and will continue that through at least mid-day Wednesday. Temps today will be near 90 but with the increase in humidity and some higher clouds we may end up with 88 or 89. Tuesday should be in the 80's and a tad lower than the NWS has because of cloud cover. Probably get to 90 this weekend as drier air moves in but not so much cooler air.

[tron777]

Only 85 as of 1pm thanks to some high and mid level clouds. Maybe that will stop us from hitting 90? It'll be close but definitely a few degrees cooler then my original thinking for today, No complaints here

[Bgoney]

Low track is still the most crucial aspect with how widespread the scattered storms will be especially, atm, for areas east of 71. Per the track right now we would Se repeated rounds of scattered storms west of 71 as the low approaches tomorrow and then as the low gets nearer scattered storms increase east of 71 but in a shorter time period compared to west of 71. Good thing is exact track still tbd

[Bgoney]

ILN pretty much saying the same thing in their late afternoon update.

[MVWxObserver]

The rainfall forecast map on WHIO7 at 5 PM showed Greenville getting .33" e.g. Prayerfully as time goes on near or at half an inch at least.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY got to 90 and CMH 92 today.

[MVWxObserver]

The rainfall forecast map on WHIO7 at 5 PM showed Greenville getting .33" e.g. Prayerfully as time goes on near or at half an inch at least.

More optimistic now as the 11 PM update via the latest totals forecast showed my area for .87"

[tron777]

Good morning! The SPC has our SW counties in a slight risk for severe wx today and a marginal risk for the rest of the areas. 5% TOR risk too thanks to the leftovers of Beryl moving thru to the west of Cincinnati. We should have enough spin, but CAPE will be in question. We shall see how much energy can be built up ahead of this system due in by afternoon. Best shot for rain is tonight into early Wed for us. The more west you are the more rain you'll get. The entire area is dry by Wed evening and we look to remain dry thru thru the weekend and as we kick off next week. The 90s also return by then too.

From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sheared out northern stream shortwave pivots thru the Great
Lakes with weakening surface trof slipping into the northwest
and dissipating. Forcing is weak but with isentropic lift across
the northwest a few showers will possible across the west-
northwest this morning.

Remnants of Beryl is forecast to eject northeast from the
Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley by evening. A warm
front is forecast to develop into ILN/s southern forecast area
ahead of this low pressure system this afternoon. Scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage across the southwest in a region of favorable moisture
transport.

As a 40-45kt southerly low level jet comes into play this
evening expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to increase in
coverage. Hodographs will take on a favorable orientation with
backed low level winds and increased flow. Also, LCLs will lower
as column moistens up. Instability around 1000 J/kg will be
possible across the south late in the day into this evening
when conditions could become favorable for tornadoes, which is
observed on the eastern side of tropical remnants.

The degree of instability is uncertain so this situation is
highly conditional with regards to tornado potential but will
be closely monitored this afternoon and evening.

Showers and some thunderstorms will become widespread generally
north and west of I-71 tonight. Given the expected track of the
surface low, the most favored region of widespread heavy rain
is expected to be to our west. But with tropical moisture (PWATs
2+ inches, cannot rule out the potential for locally heavy
rainfall.

Expect a gradient in temperatures on today with highs in the
lower 80s northwest to the lower 90s in the southeast. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s west to the lower 70s east.