Absolute Vorticity

CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow!

Had some rumbles move through and a couple nice downpours for the garden. We have it covered well on here for this evening. All modes possible and tornado parameters look worrisome.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:02 pm CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow!

Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier rains and hopefully it equals out before the end of the week

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 8:42 am
Good morning Mike! Glad you're here. Always appreciate your posts and analysis especially during severe wx events.

Thanks, Les! Work and life have been keeping me quite busy but definitely try to post as often as I can!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:02 pm CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow!

Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier rains and hopefully it equals out before the end of the week

Hope so. Less than a quarter inch since Saturday here.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 8:42 am
Good morning Mike! Glad you're here. Always appreciate your posts and analysis especially during severe wx events.

Thanks, Les! Work and life have been keeping me quite busy but definitely try to post as often as I can!

Same here! I completely understand Bro.

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:16 pm
Hope so. Less than a quarter inch since Saturday here.

Even less here. Including the recent downpour have gotten only 0.13" since Saturday!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:02 pm CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow!

Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier rains and hopefully it equals out before the end of the week

Tim, you got way more rain then I did with the last couple of events so now I guess we're about even. You always say that Mother Nature balances itself out so there you go!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:19 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:02 pm CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow!

Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier rains and hopefully it equals out before the end of the week

Tim, you got way more rain then I did with the last couple of events so now I guess we're about even. You always say that Mother Nature balances itself out so there you go!

I do Les and I see where flash flood watches for northeast Kentucky as they have got quite a bit of rain over the past few days. My guess we will see some flood watches in the local area before Thursday is over

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:16 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:02 pm CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow!

Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier rains and hopefully it equals out before the end of the week

Hope so. Less than a quarter inch since Saturday here.

I think you guys in our I-70 Crew zone will be making up for lost time. The pattern continues to look active in the extended range too. The hits are going to keep on coming for the next few weeks.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:19 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:02 pm CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow!

Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier rains and hopefully it equals out before the end of the week

Tim, you got way more rain then I did with the last couple of events so now I guess we're about even. You always say that Mother Nature balances itself out so there you go!

I do Les and I see where flash flood watches for northeast Kentucky as they have got quite a bit of rain over the past few days. My guess we will see some flood watches in the local area before Thursday is over

Either that, or they will go with one of those flood advisories or a flash flood warnings... something like that anyway. But yeah, I agree with your point on that for sure 100%!

Alright... so skies are brightening up now in Mason and even seeing a touch of sun peaking thru the cloud deck too. I bet it will feel like a sauna when I leave the building at 3 for the drive home.

I don't have too much else to report at the moment. It's pretty much a wait and see game now. We should see the radar light up to our SW over the next few hours.

As of 2:06pm from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Still looking to see how the airmass will be modified behind
this initial line of showers and thunderstorms. In the northern
half of CWA, scattered showers have sprung up ahead of the line
and seem to be removing any deeper convection behind it that
would be associated with the original line that lags behind
them. To the south, moderate to strong thunderstorms can be
found along the line, with a short period of stratiform rain
behind it.

Back edge of cloud cover with a following significant area of
clearing is already at the western border of the CWA. This
feature continues the earlier train of thought regarding severe
potential this afternoon.

Previous discussion(s) remain valid.

Still holding at 70 here in G'ville but now a DP also of 70.

UPDATE: Now at 72 with a DP of 64.

Very interesting with many moving parts and why things happen so quickly. We have a warm front south of us and cold front north of us moving south. Then once the cold front passes early Wednesday morning we have another warm front pushing in and a low with a cold front heading this way. Models are having a hard time keeping up with all the changes and we are trying our best

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:44 pm Very interesting with many moving parts and why things happen so quickly. We have a warm front south of us and cold front north of us moving south. Then once the cold front passes early Wednesday morning we have another warm front pushing in and a low with a cold front heading this way. Models are having a hard time keeping up with all the changes and we are trying our best

From now thru midnight, it will be a rapidly changing situation. everyone needs to stay tuned for sure and keep an eye and an ear open. Then again for Wed night as well. During the daytime tomorrow warm and humid is all I expect. By Thurs, we are in the clear severe wx wise.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:44 pm Very interesting with many moving parts and why things happen so quickly. We have a warm front south of us and cold front north of us moving south. Then once the cold front passes early Wednesday morning we have another warm front pushing in and a low with a cold front heading this way. Models are having a hard time keeping up with all the changes and we are trying our best

From now thru midnight, it will be a rapidly changing situation. everyone needs to stay tuned for sure and keep an eye and an ear open. Then again for Wed night as well. During the daytime tomorrow warm and humid is all I expect. By Thurs, we are in the clear severe wx wise.

Keep up the great work Les and I will be busy tonight celebrating my wife's bday though a few weeks late. My daughter and her boyfriend will be over for dinner so I may miss out on some early action in the weather department.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 3:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:44 pm Very interesting with many moving parts and why things happen so quickly. We have a warm front south of us and cold front north of us moving south. Then once the cold front passes early Wednesday morning we have another warm front pushing in and a low with a cold front heading this way. Models are having a hard time keeping up with all the changes and we are trying our best

From now thru midnight, it will be a rapidly changing situation. everyone needs to stay tuned for sure and keep an eye and an ear open. Then again for Wed night as well. During the daytime tomorrow warm and humid is all I expect. By Thurs, we are in the clear severe wx wise.

Keep up the great work Les and I will be busy tonight celebrating my wife's bday though a few weeks late. My daughter and her boyfriend will be over for dinner so I may miss out on some early action in the weather department.

Happy Belated Birthday to your wife, bro, and I hope that she enjoyed her special day!

There's a Mesoscale Discussion out for western Ohio. Tornado watch imminent.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 3:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:44 pm Very interesting with many moving parts and why things happen so quickly. We have a warm front south of us and cold front north of us moving south. Then once the cold front passes early Wednesday morning we have another warm front pushing in and a low with a cold front heading this way. Models are having a hard time keeping up with all the changes and we are trying our best

From now thru midnight, it will be a rapidly changing situation. everyone needs to stay tuned for sure and keep an eye and an ear open. Then again for Wed night as well. During the daytime tomorrow warm and humid is all I expect. By Thurs, we are in the clear severe wx wise.

Keep up the great work Les and I will be busy tonight celebrating my wife's bday though a few weeks late. My daughter and her boyfriend will be over for dinner so I may miss out on some early action in the weather department.

Happy Birthday to your Wife Tim! I hope she is having a great day and a great celebratory evening!

Just getting caught up here folks. After I got home, I had to pick up the yard where a bunch of dead timber had fallen from the trees from the first wave of convection. Had to put out a couple more mole worms too. Hate those things!

Anyway... no changes from the SPC's 3pm outlook. 76 with a dew of 69 currently IMBY. CVG is checking in with the same thing. We have an MD as Ang was indicating where a TOR watch is likely to be issued shortly for our area. See the link below for the MD Discussion.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0680.html

Radar shows supercells rapidly developing over Eastern ILL and the Western half of IN. Stay weather aware my friends... Here is what ILN is thinking as of 4pm:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Showers are starting to spring up west and south of the CWA and
are expected to fill in relatively quickly with daytime heating
creating a rapidly destabilizing atmosphere. They will quickly
become deeper convection with thunderstorms. If discrete cells
maintain a decent margin from surrounding upstream storms, shear
and instability will act to promote supercell activity. Right
turning cells will also be a favored track given the southerly
inflow of moisture and right-handed curved hodographs.

Models remain in a various state of how these storms evolve,
but they should end nw-se overnight. A few depict a brief linear
evolution in the southern/southeast forecast area with training,
but most have pushed the precip into the south by 09Z and out of
the CWA by 12Z.

Overnight lows will drop from near 60 in the northwest to near
65 in northern KY and southern OH.

Checking the SPC mesopage and our CAPE is up to 2500 J/KG. DCAPE is at 1000 with 1100 just to the SW. Lapse rates still aren't that great for us as they are more steep off to the West. We'll have to see if that is sort of a "saving grace" if you will. But I doubt it since everything else says all systems go. Shear is outstanding at 60 knots with helicity at 200 over Indiana where the supercells are firing. Supercell Comp index is now at an 8, maximized over Western TN at 20! VTP is at a 6 which is concerning for us... but to the SW WOW! It's off the charts at a 12 over the confluence of the MS / OH rivers. Even near Evansville it is at a 10! Large hail parameter is at a 6 for most, 8 over NKY with the maximized area over SE MO and ILL at 20! So all in all guys... our atmosphere is getting primed for this event.

A couple of t-storm warnings are out in IN where those supercells are firing for hail, wind and radar indicated rotation. Nothing has been spotted yet tornado wise from law enforcement or storm chasers but the event is just getting underway.

No change from the 15Z SREF as far as significant tornado ingredients go. 60-75% still showing up!