Absolute Vorticity

Nothing changing as the tropics and the Cape Verde season is in session. We have one storm that looks to develop over the next few days and another coming off the coast of Africa. First one seems to want to stay out to sea but not to far off the east coast and no ideal on the second system.

Good Morning and what is happening with the next system heading toward the mainland. This storm is more and likely to stay off shore compared to Debby. Why and a few reasons and first is the monsoon out in the southwest is starting to finally wake up and that is because the strong high that has been sitting over the rocky mountains is moving to a position in the southern plains. Second the Bermuda High is northeast of Bermuda so this allows the storm to find a weakness off the Atlantic coast. Third and that is the trough bringing us wonderful weather will continue for another week and though the trough is moving slowly it may not catch up to the tropical system until its mainly away from the mainland USA.

So getting a fish storm is good news because the east coast is just a tad wet after Debby.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 48.0W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 51.4W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

The NHC is expecting this one to become TS Ernesto in the next 24 hours. A Cat 1 cane in possible in about 3 days and within the next 5 days perhaps a major hurricane per their intensity forecast.

TS Ernesto is here!

Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 57.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 61.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Ernesto will probably become a hurricane here shortly.

Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FROM ERNESTO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 66.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...25 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

Ernesto is now a hurricane.

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO BECOMES A HURRICANE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS HEAVY RAINS PERSIST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 67.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 68.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERNESTO IS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 69.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 69.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 67.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...LARGE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BRING BERMUDA STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS
STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 66.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER BERMUDA SHORTLY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 65.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


I was wrong with regard to my intensity forecast for this one. I was expecting a Cat 3, but it's maxed out at a Cat 2 per the NHC's intensity's forecast.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 64.8W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO INCHING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 64.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...ERNESTO COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME TODAY...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 63.0W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Ernesto may regain hurricane status for a bit as it moves away from Bermuda but then it will become a TS and eventually an extra tropical system at some point next week.

Here's a nice chart showing ACE relative to avg for the time of year. We have a little less then a month before we hit the climatological peak of the hurricane season. It looks quiet over the next week after Ernesto.

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 60.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA...
...ERNESTO PASSING SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.7N 53.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.3N 50.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

Nothing really going on in the Atlantic but much of the pacific is getting very active. Once again Mother Nature balancing things out. Will this continue and the answer I have no ideal.

Probably can push back the possibility of something affecting the US coasts to mid September, unless something can spark in the GOM , even that would be after the first week ended