Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all and TGIF! NAM is still doing what Tim mentioned this morning. It has around a half inch at CVG. Euro has 0.37" GFS still going with an inch or so. We'll see... but that Cincy screw zone is gaining a bit of traction.

We're on the board with a couple of hundredths at CVG so far. We have two lows on the map this morning. 1008 MB low is just NW of St Louis, headed towards Chicago and the other at 1004 MB is down in TX headed to NE OK. Radar shows light rain slowly taking over the area with moderate and more steady rains back to the West and SW, which should be in here as the day wears on. We will see how much we get thru tomorrow. Expect winds to pick up and temps to drop tomorrow. Then as the ULL swings thru on Sunday a cold day around 40 or so with windy conditions and a few rain or snow showers even are possible. No issues of course are expected.

Next week will feature a warm up. 70s by Thurs of next week with our next shot for rain moving in by then as well.

Ensemble guidance continues to show a nice blocking pattern taking shape right after the 15th, It sticks around too for at least a week maybe 10 days. +PNA / -EPO combo on the Pacific side with a -AO / -NAO combo on the Atlantic side. Whether or not any snow can get involved remains to be seen but I would honestly not rule out some late season mischief in my personal opinion. I am specifically watching the 3/17 to 3/24 period closely.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 4:26 am Good morning all and TGIF! NAM is still doing what Tim mentioned this morning. It has around a half inch at CVG. Euro has 0.37" GFS still going with an inch or so. We'll see... but that Cincy screw zone is gaining a bit of traction.

Models have been all over the place with QPF , except maybe the GFS . Still think regionally .75” can be achieved with a few areas a bit higher

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 4:26 am Good morning all and TGIF! NAM is still doing what Tim mentioned this morning. It has around a half inch at CVG. Euro has 0.37" GFS still going with an inch or so. We'll see... but that Cincy screw zone is gaining a bit of traction.

Models have been all over the place with QPF , except maybe the GFS . Still think regionally .75” can be achieved with a few areas a bit higher

Yeah.... I have not changed my 1" call either. Going to let it ride. As you said before, it's a slow moving system and we will have two different lows to keep an eye on thru tomorrow.

As of 3/6, per the Aussies, the MJO is cruising along in phase 4 and at a pretty decent amplitude too. So with the combined lag effect, mid month on looks good for below avg temps and some blocking. since the MJO continues thru Phases 6 and 7, then I would expect a warm up for early April. That is my long term thinking at this time.

Good morning all and no reason to change the forecast this morning and Les has stated the players and we just wait to see how they perform. The heaviest rains today are to the west with the low in Illinois and then in the gulf states. So most of the day we should see showers totals should stay under 0.25 locally. Then we wait for the low that is developing to the southwest and this one should ride the cold front overnight into early Saturday. The placement of the front is key to who gets in on some of the heavier rains. Still going with the 1-1.5 range but somebody will be in the zone of getting less overnight in a southwest to northeast stretch and some models are showing that through us while others have it further west or east.

One thing we have not talked about to much is a decent shot of cold comes in during the day on Saturday and stays in town for about 36 hours and if may even see some snow showers but more for show than causing any problems imo.

0.02" at CVG as of this post. Tim... I think our thoughts and forecasts over the next few days looks good. Then we get a nice break before we track the next system late next week / next weekend. That one should usher in a cooler, more blockier pattern for a 7-10 day period. Can we cash in with snow or just get a cold rain? We'll see how it goes, but this to me looks to be winter's last gasp.

Did we really have ANY gasps from winter to qualify as a last one?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 7:39 am Did we really have ANY gasps from winter to qualify as a last one?

I would consider the snow event and cold weather we had back in January, but otherwise that's truly been it.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 7:39 am Did we really have ANY gasps from winter to qualify as a last one?

Has been a sad winter and my biggest snow was probably in Wisconsin on Halloween. That is truly sad and I agree with Les we had the brief period in January of some snow and a nice shot of cold air. The one good thing is if the winter is not good in terms of snow and cold at least we had tons of sun compared to normal.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:03 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 7:39 am Did we really have ANY gasps from winter to qualify as a last one?

Has been a sad winter and my biggest snow was probably in Wisconsin on Halloween. That is truly sad and I agree with Les we had the brief period in January of some snow and a nice shot of cold air. The one good thing is if the winter is not good in terms of snow and cold at least we had tons of sun compared to normal.

That was the thing that blew me away. The lack of precip and cloudy days. One of the sunniest winters I can ever remember.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:17 am Ensemble guidance continues to show a nice blocking pattern taking shape right after the 15th, It sticks around too for at least a week maybe 10 days. +PNA / -EPO combo on the Pacific side with a -AO / -NAO combo on the Atlantic side. Whether or not any snow can get involved remains to be seen but I would honestly not rule out some late season mischief in my personal opinion. I am specifically watching the 3/17 to 3/24 period closely.

I think the higher elevations of the Apps have a decent chance to cash in with something during this period

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 9:16 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:17 am Ensemble guidance continues to show a nice blocking pattern taking shape right after the 15th, It sticks around too for at least a week maybe 10 days. +PNA / -EPO combo on the Pacific side with a -AO / -NAO combo on the Atlantic side. Whether or not any snow can get involved remains to be seen but I would honestly not rule out some late season mischief in my personal opinion. I am specifically watching the 3/17 to 3/24 period closely.

I think the higher elevations of the Apps have a decent chance to cash in with something during this period

For sure. Higher elevations will be favored this time of year. I will not forecast accumulation for us, but to see more flakes falling wouldn't shock me either.

BG StormTalk!

Looks like steadier band of rain entering the local area so a soggy afternoon. Probably see one more after that and then maybe a break this evening. Overnight still looks wet through noon or so Saturday. Then we have more scattered showers but colder air moving in and yes overnight Saturday and Sunday morning a few snow showers and though no traffic problems could see a dusting here and there as temps get near 32. Still like the 1 - 1.5 totals on total rainfall and trying to figure out where a heavier band may set up but that will probably not be known until this evening.

I'm letting my forecast ride also Tim. I think the northern low is weakening and we'll see the southern low around TX take over to deliver more heavier rains tonight into the day tomorrow. That has kind of been my expectation with this system.

Rainfall totals so far to the southwest of us have mainly been around 1/4 of an inch and that is probably what we will see though we have 2 bands and maybe 3 for the remainder of today so will watch closely but mainly a light steady rain with a pocket or two of moderate rain showing up.

Les we are on the same page and at this point Let It Ride which btw was a nice song in the 70's

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:14 pm Rainfall totals so far to the southwest of us have mainly been around 1/4 of an inch and that is probably what we will see though we have 2 bands and maybe 3 for the remainder of today so will watch closely but mainly a light steady rain with a pocket or two of moderate rain showing up.

Les we are on the same page and at this point Let It Ride which btw was a nice song in the 70's

Yes it was!

0.06" as of 1pm at CVG.

0.12" now as of 2pm at CVG so we're slowly getting there.

Good Afternoon and about .2 inches so far and that was expected today. What has been the change is the rains overnight and through probably mid-day Saturday has shifted east with the heaviest rains. This still keeps us on the western edge of the heavier rains overnight. Still expect that 2a-10a is when we see the heaviest rains and still going with 1 - 1.5 inches when all is said and done. Still looks like a few snow showers overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning but still more for show and sure maybe a light dusting.

Both CVG / CMH reached 51 and DAY 53 on Thurs.

CVG got to 56 and both DAY / CMH 57 today.

Good Morning and yes a bust on the forecast. The strong storms well to the south and even further south than I expected formed a training line that produced between 4-7 inches and that hurt the influx into the Ohio Valley. Once the northern low weaken the southern low just got stronger and we saw what happened. Still got some rain to add to the totals earlier in the week so not all bad

Only 0.51" at CVG for the event total. Pretty underwhelming. The track was too far east and the system moved faster then expected. Still seeing some drizzle though. We'll see a few flakes perhaps tonight into tomorrow. Then we warm up and look good thru Thursday then we get our next system to deal with. Not sure about strong storms yet on Friday since the frontal zone timing is not set in stone this far away.