Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all and for early next week... The Euro shows a strengthening low and a nice track but little precip to work with in the cold sector. That is also an issue. EPS came further to the NW also. GFS and GEFS are still SE meaning a swing and a miss.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 11:06 pm Latest GFS meteogram. Not looking good if you’re wanting cold and snow. I suspect some of the Mets expecting cold (CB, John Gumm, etc) will be changing their tune soon enough. Maybe not CB though…he is the King of the Weenies

You Rang?


https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=63762

Alaska’s (Fairbanks) recent two week cold snap comparison with other years

Speaking of Alaska, Juneau also had a very snowy January. #2 all time per NWS Office in Juneau.

6Z GFS =

CVG

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 5:48 am Speaking of Alaska, Juneau also had a very snowy January. #2 all time per NWS Office in Juneau.

Good Morning Les and yes with the two distinct air masses of cold to the west and warm to the east they were in a great spot for several storms and enough of the cold air that much of that ended up as snow.

GEFS and EPS also came NW on the 0Z run when compared to yesterday's 12Z. Even the 0Z OP Euro's track is good, just a lack of cold sector precip. I personally am still keeping my one eye open for early next week the 12-13th.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:21 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 5:48 am Speaking of Alaska, Juneau also had a very snowy January. #2 all time per NWS Office in Juneau.

Good Morning Les and yes with the two distinct air masses of cold to the west and warm to the east they were in a great spot for several storms and enough of the cold air that much of that ended up as snow.

Good morning Tim! Anchorage has broken some snowfall records too this winter. Been a great winter for Alaska.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 5:55 am 6Z GFS =

CVG

Code: Select all

MON 18Z 12-FEB   1.9     0.5    1006      96      97    0.28     548     544    
TUE 00Z 13-FEB   0.1    -4.0    1002      98      97    0.70     540     538    
TUE 06Z 13-FEB  -1.9    -7.9    1010      84      49    0.25     535     527  

Yes that was a great run and illustrates the only way we will get meaningful snow from that system…and that is it has to phase. If it doesn’t we won’t have the cold air needed. If this shows up for a few more runs then I’ll be a bit more interested.

Good Morning and should be a nice day in store. Even though we had that stretch of cloudy days this winter as a whole has seen more sunny days than normal. That does help some with the winter blues.

No changes concerning the short term and hopefully a better handle of the possible rain chances later Thursday through Sunday. Longer term and again I have no changes and believe we are in for a period of colder than normal and stormy We have different opinions on this and that is wonderful and this helps everyone who is trying to make a forecast. Specifics on each storm is starting to get into that range and I hope to spend more time on that aspect on Thursday.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:26 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 5:55 am 6Z GFS =

CVG

Code: Select all

MON 18Z 12-FEB   1.9     0.5    1006      96      97    0.28     548     544    
TUE 00Z 13-FEB   0.1    -4.0    1002      98      97    0.70     540     538    
TUE 06Z 13-FEB  -1.9    -7.9    1010      84      49    0.25     535     527  

Yes that was a great run and illustrates the only way we will get meaningful snow from that system…and that is it has to phase. If it doesn’t we won’t have the cold air needed. If this shows up for a few more runs then I’ll be a bit more interested.

I agree... that is the only way that a system like that will work. There is no denying that. There is just enough model guidance support for me to keep my eye on it. That's all... just keeping the one eye open look for the moment.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:27 am Good Morning and should be a nice day in store. Even though we had that stretch of cloudy days this winter as a whole has seen more sunny days than normal. That does help some with the winter blues.

No changes concerning the short term and hopefully a better handle of the possible rain chances later Thursday through Sunday. Longer term and again I have no changes and believe we are in for a period of colder than normal and stormy We have different opinions on this and that is wonderful and this helps everyone who is trying to make a forecast. Specifics on each storm is starting to get into that range and I hope to spend more time on that aspect on Thursday.

My stance Tim is for us to run below normal at times from next week thru the 20th. May need to extend it a bit further out in time, but the next week or two probably holds the best chances for us as of this post. Hopefully the Tellies line up as currently modeled and we get some help from the MJO.

MJO has stalled in Phase 7 as of 2/5 per the Aussies. We'll have to see how long it remains in this phase.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:01 am MJO has stalled in Phase 7 as of 2/5 per the Aussies. We'll have to see how long it remains in this phase.

This is something I am not surprised to see.

I’m really starting to wonder if it will even make it to 8 in the near future. May end up in the COD.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:03 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:01 am MJO has stalled in Phase 7 as of 2/5 per the Aussies. We'll have to see how long it remains in this phase.

This is something I am not surprised to see.

I actually am. Models have had it weakening / slowing down all season long. The models finally got one right.

I agree about the system early next week that the upper system needs to be strong to form its own cold air. Again this is just the start of the pattern change and one that will get colder over the next several weeks. Again I believe the models will figure out the PV and it looks like a stretched type but also it seems the eastern USA will be part of that area. I have a 28 day period that I have keyed on and no its not going to be cold the entire time and we very seldom see that in mid-winter with a great set up. The pattern though shows cold and some of those shots will be very cold compared to normal. During that period do we get 6 systems that could bring us wet weather and out of the 6 how many give us a shot at winter precip. That number of storms imo will probably be close to the amount of systems that will occur during this period. Again nobody can predict exact numbers of storms and how many will at least have some winter precip but can only go by how the pattern is shaping up. I have seen great patterns in the past and get nothing and have seen poor patterns where we get lucky.

I know many folks on here key longer term forecasts on the models and that is wonderful and what a great tool to have. Some of us older folks had no models but were pattern watchers with less information available but could form forecasts because of the pattern.

Like I have mentioned many times when you get different ideas of what a forecast be it short term or long term it seems to fall somewhere in the middle by the end of the day.

Good thing is we will be busy compared to the past several days and that is always nice in the winter when other hobbies are few and far between.

Saw the posts on the mjo and yes maybe just maybe it finally got one correct so the mjo system of models that try and forecast that have been dead wrong for the past several weeks. If the mjo does go into the COD then it tells me other items will drive the pattern. I am still not sold it will go to the COD but over the next 5-7 days that issue hopefully will be solved.

Tim... I am not sold on the MJO either. I think it will be critical in determining how long the cooler pattern can last.

Tropics are fired up in the west pac. Good amount of activity in phases 6 and 8 , with the largest flairs-up of course in 7 . Mods have been consistently showing the slow down/stall in 7 for 8-10 days. Anybody’s guess to where it goes once it gets going again

25 this morning at CVG.

Bgoney this will be interesting to see what happens as sooner of later the models will get one correct. The mjo models have always had troubles but this past few weeks has been worse than normal as it showed it stalling in each phase and each time it was incorrect. Does this stall in phase 7 or does it continue on or just go into the COD. My guess is it will continue on to phase 8 and probably into the colder phase 1-3 though 2 and 3 are better for the east coast in later February and early March but we will still be in a decent location.

A good example was about a month ago when the mjo was in phase 3 but then headed briefly back to phase 2 and we got the at cold spell. Since then the mjo has been on the move through the warmer phases. Current phase 7 and yes it seems to have backed up in phase 7 and again this gives us this really nice warm up for a few days. The forecasts though shows it moving and whether that is into phase 8 or the cod we should know in the next week. Global models will also adjust depending on this information thrown into the mix and my guess as you mentioned it has been showing a stall in phase 7 and that is one reason imo models are too warm in the extended.

If this would stall in phase 7 for an extended period or even back up into phase 6 then no doubt my forecast would need to be changed somewhat.

Some of the latest guidance has it getting into Phase 8 next week. Other models wait until the following week.

Makes you wonder why it did slow down . You would think with the above normal water temps in the central and east pac it would keep its momentum moving eastward. The last few years we’ve seen it do this but the water temps were much cooler so you’d expect it to lose momentum during those conditions

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:25 am Makes you wonder why it did slow down . You would think with the above normal water temps in the central and east pac it would keep its momentum moving eastward. The last few years we’ve seen it do this but the water temps were much cooler so you’d expect it to lose momentum during those conditions

Exactly.... and until now, models were dead wrong at weakening it and slowing it down. Models have tried time and time again all winter long and the MJO waves continue to be stronger and last longer then modeled. Again, up until now. I'm not sure why either. I wish I knew.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:27 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:25 am Makes you wonder why it did slow down . You would think with the above normal water temps in the central and east pac it would keep its momentum moving eastward. The last few years we’ve seen it do this but the water temps were much cooler so you’d expect it to lose momentum during those conditions

Exactly.... and until now, models were dead wrong at weakening it and slowing it down. Models have tried time and time again all winter long and the MJO waves continue to be stronger and last longer then modeled. Again, up until now. I'm not sure why either. I wish I knew.

Maybe conditions for tropical development are so good in 6/7 for continued development , it acts like a magnet holding back eastward progression. Northern Australia has been hammered by systems over the last month or so , very unusual for an Elnino. Just a thought