Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 3:40 pm I’d love to see 4” of precip over the next month and change especially given how dry it’s been (Nino-related of course). Like we have been discussing, the model does show a flip to wetter after Thanksgiving.

A lot of that precip will be in the form of rain in my opinion. However, I still see a window of opportunity for snow late this month into early December. Who knows though, I could easily be wrong about this and we get a wall to wall torch.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 3:44 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 3:40 pm I’d love to see 4” of precip over the next month and change especially given how dry it’s been (Nino-related of course). Like we have been discussing, the model does show a flip to wetter after Thanksgiving.

A lot of that precip will be in the form of rain in my opinion. However, I still see a window of opportunity for snow late this month into early December. Who knows though, I could easily be wrong about this and we get a wall to wall torch.

Oh it’ll most definitely fall in the form of rain for the most part. But yes like you said still some room for wintry action in there even still.

78 as of 4pm so 79 is it for today at CVG. We tied the record from 2020. 79 also IMBY for today.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:37 am Dew points approaching 60 as close as Louisville. We should see ours in the low 60s by this evening ahead of the front.

Probably would have had a red flag warning day if the dews weren’t high with these winds

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:10 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:37 am Dew points approaching 60 as close as Louisville. We should see ours in the low 60s by this evening ahead of the front.

Probably would have had a red flag warning day if the dews weren’t high with these winds

Very true but lucky for us warmer air like today this time of year will always be accompanied by moisture.

Les, I just got done cutting my grass…. On November 8th!!!! Make it stop

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:28 pm Les, I just got done cutting my grass…. On November 8th!!!! Make it stop

Hey Pete! Long time no post. I am in leaf grinding mode usually until Thanksgiving most years so it's nothing new for me. I use the lawn tractor to mulch the leaves back into the soil versus raking them up. It's better for your lawn IMO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:31 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:28 pm Les, I just got done cutting my grass…. On November 8th!!!! Make it stop

Hey Pete! Long time no post. I am in leaf grinding mode usually until Thanksgiving most years so it's nothing new for me. I use the lawn tractor to mulch the leaves back into the soil versus raking them up. It's better for your lawn IMO.

Good to talk to you again, Les. All the snow and winter lovers, like myself, are coming out of our summer hibernation and back on the forum.

Hoping for a monster winter of snow and cold with great discussion of an impending blizzard, or two!!

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:31 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:28 pm Les, I just got done cutting my grass…. On November 8th!!!! Make it stop

Hey Pete! Long time no post. I am in leaf grinding mode usually until Thanksgiving most years so it's nothing new for me. I use the lawn tractor to mulch the leaves back into the soil versus raking them up. It's better for your lawn IMO.

Good to talk to you again, Les. All the snow and winter lovers, like myself, are coming out of our summer hibernation and back on the forum.

Hoping for a monster winter of snow and cold with great discussion of an impending blizzard, or two!!

You also! I hope you have been doing well. We'll see what happens. You should read a lot of our posts in the El Nino / early winter thoughts thread to get up to speed the things we have been discussing for the last several weeks and months. We have been talking about a lot of the factors that are good and bad so to speak for cold and snow lovers.

Thankfully leaves are not a problem for me.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:45 pm Thankfully leaves are not a problem for me.

Looking good! There are lots of trees IMBY and in the neighbors yards so leaves are always an issue around here. I appreciate the shade in the summer though and they are good for the heat and droughts that we get in summer as well. Pros and cons, just like everything in life.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:47 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:45 pm Thankfully leaves are not a problem for me.

Looking good! There are lots of trees IMBY and in the neighbors yards so leaves are always an issue around here. I appreciate the shade in the summer though and they are good for the heat and droughts that we get in summer as well. Pros and cons, just like everything in life.

Well said, my friend!! Well said !!

I'm waiting for the first 18Z GFS 384 hour fantasy snow storm that we know will never come to fruition. With this warm pattern we're in, so far, we can't even get any digital snow. It's like a rite of passage going into the winter season you know.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:53 pm I'm waiting for the first 18Z GFS 384 hour fantasy snow storm that we know will never come to fruition. With this warm pattern we're in, so far, we can't even get any digital snow. It's like a rite of passage going into the winter season you know.

I always look forward to those 384 hour blizzards that give us 2 feet of snow!! It is fun to dream

No doubt Pete!

79 at CVG today officially as of the 5pm climate report. That ties the record from 2020.
DAY and CMH were well short of their records as they only hit 77 and 73 degrees respectively.

Here are the Euro weeklies Les!

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 5:34 pm Here are the Euro weeklies Les!

That actually looks terrible Trev from a numbers standpoint. From now thru 12/23 we only see 2.5" of snow??? That is below avg for the time period. If it showed say 5 or 6" then that would be normal. More then 6" above normal. However, if we do see a mild December then we should probably be thankful that we got 2.5"

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 6:21 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 5:34 pm Here are the Euro weeklies Les!

That actually looks terrible Trev from a numbers standpoint. From now thru 12/23 we only see 2.5" of snow??? That is below avg for the time period. If it showed say 5 or 6" then that would be normal. More then 6" above normal. However, if we do see a mild December then we should probably be thankful that we got 2.5"

Right that’s what I was getting at

00z NAM brings the precip shield up to the river tomorrow. GFS and Euro remain further south. Something to watch for the potential need for low pops, but more importantly it would lead to lower high temps tomorrow.

Winter outlook coming today after work. Stay tuned!

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 2:25 am Winter outlook coming today after work. Stay tuned!

Awesome! Curious to see your thoughts. You know most of ours in the other thread.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 1:37 am 00z NAM brings the precip shield up to the river tomorrow. GFS and Euro remain further south. Something to watch for the potential need for low pops, but more importantly it would lead to lower high temps tomorrow.

6Z run was a bump back to the south. POPS aside... cloud cover would lead to lower high temps for sure (maybe low 50s?) regardless if any rain falls. I am still going dry for our CWA at this time. Temps for the I-70 Crew should be warmer due to less in the way of clouds.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 5:35 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 2:25 am Winter outlook coming today after work. Stay tuned!

Awesome! Curious to see your thoughts. You know most of ours in the other thread.

I’ll check out your guys’ thoughts after I post.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 5:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 5:35 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 2:25 am Winter outlook coming today after work. Stay tuned!

Awesome! Curious to see your thoughts. You know most of ours in the other thread.

I’ll check out your guys’ thoughts after I post.

Sounds good! We've been having a good discussion going about the El Nino and other factors that maybe in play. You have a lot of catching up to do! Glad you are posting regularly again. You've been missed!

The front has passed CVG. Winds are now out of the NW and temps are dropping. It was 70 degrees at 4am, 69 at 5am and now down to 64 as of the 5am reading.